JPY 03 (Dec 16 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

I told you the yen was going to reverse! Are you listening?

24.07.30【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 早告訴你日圓要反轉！你有沒有在聽？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h35BOmLxyYA

[behappyalways]

The end of the ‘carry trade’? How Japan’s yen could be ripping through U.S. stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/carry-t ... tocks.html

[winston]

Three-quarters of carry trade erased

The strategy, which involves borrowing at low rates to fund purchases in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, has been wobbling for months, especially carry trade in yen.

Source: Agencies

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ade-erased

[winston]

Of the US$500bil yen-funded carry trades, only 50% had been unwind, a UBS note estimated last week.

[behappyalways]

HEDGE FUNDS TURN NET LONG ON YEN FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2021: CFTC

No dude

Hedge funds didn’t “turn net long on JPY” -it’s that the JPY SHORTS got blown up
https://x.com/acrossthespread/status/18 ... 0629380099

[winston]

Japan’s US$4 tril ‘carry trade’ begins to slowly unwind

By Ruth Carson, Masaki Kondo & Winnie Hsu

US$4.4 trillion (RM18.3 trillion) invested abroad, an amount larger than India’s economy.

It’s going to be one of the mega trends and it is a super cycle for the next five to 10 years.

“There will be a sustained, gradual but massive flow of capital back into Japan from abroad.”

Yields on the benchmark 30-year Japanese government bonds have risen about 40 basis points to above 2%.

Japan’s investors are the largest foreign holders of US government bonds and own almost 10% of Australia’s debt. They also control hundreds of billions of dollars worth of stocks from Singapore to the Netherlands and the US, owning anywhere between 1% and 2% of the markets.

Their reach extends to high risk investments such as cryptocurrencies and risky debt that blew up in Europe.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728733

[behappyalways]

Yen Craters As Japan Gives Up On Further Rate Hikes, Carry Trade Is Back With A Bang
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-c ... -back-bang

[winston]

Don’t Rush to Invest in the Japanese Yen

by Brett Eversole

Sentiment toward the yen was hugely negative last year. But the currency has jumped in value since then. And that means lately, futures traders have been extremely bullish.

When traders are all betting on a higher yen, the currency tends to fall. And in these cases, we usually see a quick decline of around 10%.

Futures traders are far too bullish right now. And that makes a quick, double-digit decline likely.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/06/25/ ... anese-yen/

[winston]

Yen is being hammered; can the Japanese currency recover against Singdollar and greenback?

Despite the sharp sell-off, the currency could be poised to strengthen in the medium to long term

The market has swiftly priced in her platform of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus, reminiscent of former leader Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”, sending the USD/JPY pair surging 3.8 per cent to 153 on Oct 9.

Despite the sharp sell-off, currency strategists believe the so-called “Takaichi trade” driving yen weakness may soon run out of steam, with the currency poised to strengthen in the medium to long term.

Due to the US-China tensions, the currency pair could be at risk of a downside move, meaning that the greenback could weaken and the yen could strengthen.

Investors had been bullish on the greenback, giving easing monetary conditions. But should US-China tensions escalate, that could add downside pressure on the US economy with another round of higher US import tariffs.

If yen weakness accelerates and the USD/JPY pair heads towards the 160 mark within one to two weeks, the situation could change. Such a move “would be viewed as more likely” to trigger foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese government to support its currency.

Broader trend of US dollar weakness for the remainder of 2025, driven by anticipated rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

The private bank’s central scenario anticipates only moderate fiscal expansion from Takaichi’s government, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy normalisation being “delayed but still on course”. These factors “should help guide USD/JPY lower over the next six to 12 months”.

In Japan, uncertainty following the LDP leadership outcome has reinforced expectations that fiscal expansion will continue, while the BOJ remains on a very gradual tightening path.

Real wages remain weak and with inflation largely cost-push, markets are skeptical that the BOJ will hike aggressively.

Source: OCBC

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... -greenback

[behappyalways]

Loss Of Credibility: Yen Craters, Yields Surge After BOJ Hikes Rates To Highest Since 1999
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/loss- ... ghest-1999