USD 07 (Apr 23 - Dec 27)

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby winston » Wed May 28, 2025 9:30 pm

US dollar may face ‘major’ drop in 2026, says StanChart

By Naomi Tajitsu

The risk of a “major” downturn in the dollar will increase next year if President Donald Trump’s policies add to the US debt burden but fail to boost the economy.

US government debt and the amount owed to investors outside the country have increased simultaneously in recent years. That puts the dollar and Treasuries at risk from any loss of confidence among foreign investors as they get a better view of the longer-term impact of increased borrowing.


Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/757094
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 113035
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jun 03, 2025 3:56 pm

Everyone hates the US dollar right now. Feels a bit stretched to the downside. Positioning is very, very short, too.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1929342744872230972
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 42783
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 05, 2025 7:03 am

Substantial weakening of US dollar seen in next two years

Morgan Stanley expects the US dollar to weaken significantly over the next two years, as interest rate cuts and slowing US economic growth erode support for the currency.

The bank's strategists forecast a 9 percent drop in the Dollar Index to 91 by mid-2026 – a level last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The bank said the euro, yen and Swiss franc, are likely to emerge as the biggest beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar.


Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/303802/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 113035
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Jun 27, 2025 12:23 pm

BofA shows Global Fund Managers are most underweight the US dollar in the last 20 years.
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1937953674073956431
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 42783
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:17 pm

The dollar is set for its worst year in modern history
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1942051075822862831
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 42783
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby winston » Fri Jul 18, 2025 9:27 pm

The Dollar’s Worst Year in 50 Years is Great News for Your Portfolio

by Robert Ross

The U.S. dollar is down more than 10% year-to-date, marking its worst start to a year in over 50 years.

When the dollar weakens, two things tend to happen…
1. Foreign capital rotates into U.S. assets to take advantage of the currency discount.
2. Scarce, inflation-resistant assets outperform as investors hedge against debasement.

A weaker dollar disproportionately benefits small cap stocks and cryptocurrencies – two of the most sensitive asset classes to liquidity flows.

Over the short term, we’re stretched – both technically and sentiment-wise. But the medium-term thesis is clear: fiscal dominance means more spending, more borrowing, and more liquidity.

That’s bullish for risk assets – especially those that benefit from a declining dollar and increasing liquidity.

So what’s your move?
1. Stay long core dollar-hedge assets like BTC, ETH, and gold.
2. Lean into U.S.-focused small caps that are beginning to outperform large caps.
3. Watch the bond market – if yields stop rising despite more debt issuance, that’s a sign fiscal dominance is fully priced in and risk-on can resume.


Source: Total Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/07/18/ ... portfolio/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 113035
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jul 27, 2025 1:01 pm

Dollar depreciation is what he wants all along.
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1948803755505582416
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 42783
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jul 29, 2025 12:33 pm

Crowded shorts often lead to reversals. The dollar is having its best month in 2025.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1949905858596655407
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 42783
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 12, 2025 5:56 am

US dollar carry trade defies ‘Sell America’ woes, trounces the world’s stock market booms

A Bloomberg gauge of the US dollar bounced back around 3 per cent from a September low, in part because of the so-called carry trade

The dollar is regaining its crown as one of the world’s most appealing assets, defying talk of a “Sell America” trade that had raised troubling questions about the outlook for the global reserve currency.

A simple strategy of borrowing in low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc and putting your money in dollars looks set to beat the implied returns on markets such as European stocks and Chinese government bonds, once the volatility of these assets is taken into account.

That suggests the dollar will maintain its critical position in global portfolios, despite worries about its future this year as President Donald Trump shook up the global economic order.

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar is down almost 7 per cent this year – its worst performance in eight years – but it has bounced back around 3 per cent from a September low, in part because of the so-called carry trade.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... pe=section
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 113035
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Previous

Return to Currencies

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest