USD 06 (Nov 15 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

"De-dollarization" is no longer a concept!

'25.03.19【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2「去美元化」已經不是概念！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hpnjeVWfCPE

[winston]

The Dollar Decline is About To Get Worse

by Brett Eversole

To the world, tariffs make the U.S. dollar look less stable and less appealing. So the dollar plunged as well.

According to this setup, we can expect the pain to continue… with even lower levels likely in the months ahead.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/04/02/ ... get-worse/

[winston]

The world suddenly has a plausible alternative to US Treasuries

By Greg Ritchie, Michael Mackenzie & Mia Glass

In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.61% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defence spending.

Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has soared after spending years around zero and is now around 1.25%.

While both are still well below Treasury yields, they’re at levels that makes them look more attractive than Treasuries to European and Japanese investors who hedge their dollar exposure when buying US securities. That might entice investors to shift allocations to their home markets.

Deutsche Bank warns of a “confidence crisis” in the dollar, while UBS Group AG sees a shot in the arm to the euro’s status as a global reserve currency.

Investors are bracing for Europe to play a bigger role in global markets as competition for capital heats up.

One early test comes Tuesday, when the US government is set to sell US$58 billion (RM260.13 billion) of three-year securities, followed by 10- and 30-year maturities later this week.

Germany kicked off the shift in early March, when it announced plans to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure. Bund yields soared as investors priced in a flood of bond issuance to pay for the spending.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/750651

[winston]

US dollar poised for worst 1st 100 days of presidency since Nixon

Worst performance during the first 100 days of a US presidency in data going back to the Nixon era, when America abandoned the gold standard and switched to a free-floating exchange rate.

Nixon shock of 1971 caused the US dollar to drop, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates established after the end of the World War II.

The euro, Swiss franc and yen have risen more than 8 per cent each against the US dollar since Trump’s return to the presidency.

Bearish bets on the US currency worth about US$13.9 billion during the week ended Apr 22.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ency-nixon

[winston]

Central bank body BIS flags potential for dollar scramble

Possible scramble for dollars could be triggered if whipsawed investors begin to unwind positions in the US$113 trillion (HK$881.4 trillion) FX swap market amid U.S. volatility.

Funds and other non-bank financial firms had more than US$80 trillion in FX swaps - money borrowed in the U.S. currency with the promise to pay it back at an agreed exchange rate at a later date.

Effectively a form of short-term debt, swaps tend to be held 'off balance sheet' and are not to be factored in regulatory capital requirements.

The issues come if investors suddenly rush to unwind these positions.

Investors who have hedged positions are often holding euros or yen but still have the dollar repayment obligations.

If you have to roll over that swap you have to join the scramble (for dollars), that can then cause a rapid spike in the value of the U.S. currency.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/302887/

[winston]

US dollar may face ‘major’ drop in 2026, says StanChart

By Naomi Tajitsu

The risk of a “major” downturn in the dollar will increase next year if President Donald Trump’s policies add to the US debt burden but fail to boost the economy.

US government debt and the amount owed to investors outside the country have increased simultaneously in recent years. That puts the dollar and Treasuries at risk from any loss of confidence among foreign investors as they get a better view of the longer-term impact of increased borrowing.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/757094

[behappyalways]

Everyone hates the US dollar right now. Feels a bit stretched to the downside. Positioning is very, very short, too.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1929342744872230972

[winston]

Substantial weakening of US dollar seen in next two years

Morgan Stanley expects the US dollar to weaken significantly over the next two years, as interest rate cuts and slowing US economic growth erode support for the currency.

The bank's strategists forecast a 9 percent drop in the Dollar Index to 91 by mid-2026 – a level last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The bank said the euro, yen and Swiss franc, are likely to emerge as the biggest beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/303802/

[behappyalways]

BofA shows Global Fund Managers are most underweight the US dollar in the last 20 years.
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1937953674073956431