AIA Group 1299

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Recovery in progress

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%)
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%)
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%)
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8% )
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%)
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

Ratings & TPs on AIA (01299.HK) (Table)

AIA (01299.HK) was expected to release 1Q21 results next Friday.

Brokers│Ratings│TPs (HK$)
Morgan Stanley│Overweight│130
Daiwa│Buy│128
JPMorgan│Overweight│125
Credit Suisse│Outperform│120
CICC│Outperform│120
Goldman Sachs│Buy (CL Buy)│116
Citigroup│Buy│116
UBS│Buy│115
BNP Paribas│Hold│95
HSBC Global Research│Hold│94

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Brokers See AIA (01299.HK) 1Q21 VoNB +17% on CN Biz Strength (Update)

Credit Suisse expected AIA (01299.HK) to unveil 1Q21 results on 14 May.

Helped by China's business performance, the firm's 1Q21 VoNB (on AER basis) may range US$967.2 million to US$1.008 billion, up 15%-19.9% YoY according to brokers' forecast as compiled by our reporters.

The median forecast is US$984 million, up 17% YoY.

Brokers│1Q21E VoNB (US$)│YoY Change
Credit Suisse│1.008 billion│+19.9%
CICC│992 million│+18%
JPMorgan│976 million│+16%
Daiwa│967.2 million│+15%

Based on 1Q20 VoNB of US$841 million (down 28% on AER basis).

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Growth rotating: SEA making a comeback

While we see China as mainly driving 1Q21F VONB growth, we see growth drivers switching to South East Asia (SEA) in 2Q21F via higher margins.

We see a marked shift towards higher-margin protection & rider products, especially in Thailand & Malaysia, with margins driving VONB growth.

In Thailand, new data disclosures show 1Q21 new premium growth for protection business accelerating to 16% yoy from FY20’s 1% yoy.

Reiterate Add. While our lower TP of HK$120 assumes a longer pandemic, we see upside surprise to margins from favourable product mix shifts.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 78AD0AC56E

[winston]

not vested

FIRST QUARTER 2021 NEW BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS

KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Growth rates are shown on a constant exchange rate basis.
Value of new business (VONB) of US$1,052 million, up 19 per cent
Annualised new premiums (ANP) grew 10 per cent to US$1,703 million
VONB margin up 4.5 pps to 61.6 per cent
Total weighted premium income (TWPI) up 6 per cent to US$9,663 million

AIA has exceeded pre-pandemic levels of new business for each of our segments other than Hong Kong, where travel restrictions continue to affect sales to Mainland Chinese visitors.

Outside Hong Kong, VONB for all segments in the first quarter of 2021 was higher than the first quarter of 2019.

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listc ... 400001.pdf

[winston]

not vested

AIA GROUP LTD (1299 HK)

Recommendation : BUY
Fair Value : HKD 120.00

EXECUTING ON ITS CHINA ROADMAP.

Proposal to invest USD1.86bn to acquire a 24.99% stake in China Post Life extends its mass market reach. Transaction is pending regulatory approvals and will be funded by internal resources.

Recent addition of a Hubei branch license & latest China Post Life investment plan adds positively to its medium term China growth story.

Remains our preferred Asia insurance sector pick, where we continue to expect a gradual recovery from pandemic disruptions across Asia while firmer growth expectations in China should drive the group’s new business value growth over the medium term as it expands towards its target of 12 new regions by 2030E.

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%)
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%)
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%)
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8%)
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%)
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%)

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

Shaping up to a good 2H21F

Strong VONB beat in 2Q21 was driven by ASEAN and better-than-expected performance in China, where we estimate 2Q21 VONB fell only 3%.

While base effects and currency tailwinds get more difficult in 2H21F yoy, we remain optimistic both 3Q21F and 4Q21F can sustain >20% VONB growth.

We see 2H21F growth driven by Thailand, China and Hong Kong.

Reiterate Add, unchanged TP: HK$127. AIA remains our top sector pick.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... E47468F567

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Strong VONB growth ex-HK

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%),
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%),
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%),
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8%),
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%),
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic remains a risk to monitor near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

Brokers Forecast AIA 3Q VONB on AER to Grow Nearly 6%, Dented by Pandemic

Credit Suisse forecast that AIA (01299.HK) will announce the new business highlights for 3Q21 on 12 November (Friday).

The market estimated that the Mainland visitor arrivals have been restricted due to the COVID-19 flare-up, whereas the company's performance in the ASEAN markets were also upset.

According to forecasts by four brokers as complied by our reporters, based on actual exchange rates (AER), AIA's 3Q21 value of new business (VONB) will range between USD727.5 million and USD769.5 million, up 3-9% YoY compared to the VONB of USD706 million of last year. The median of the forecasts was USD747.5 million, up 5.9% YoY.

Related News: C Suisse Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $116, Foresees 9M21 VNB at US$2.567B

————————————————————————————————————
Brokers│3Q21 VONB on AER│YoY Change
Daiwa|USD769.5 million|+9%
Credit Suisse |USD753 million|+6.7%
JPMorgan|USD742 million|+5.1%
BofA Securities|USD727.5 million|+3%

Based on 3Q20 VONB of USD706 million.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Brokers Forecast AIA 3Q VONB on AER to Grow Over 6%, Dented by Pandemic (Update)

2021/11/03

Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse forecast that AIA (01299.HK) will announce the new business highlights for 3Q21 on 12 November (Friday).

The market estimated that the Mainland visitor arrivals have been restricted due to the COVID-19 flare-up, whereas the company's performance in the ASEAN markets were also upset.

According to forecasts by six brokers as complied by our reporters, based on actual exchange rates (AER), AIA's 3Q21 value of new business (VONB) will range between USD727.5 million and USD769.5 million, up 3-9% YoY compared to the VONB of USD706 million of last year. The median of the forecasts was USD751 million, up 6.4% YoY.

————————————————————————————————————
Brokers│3Q21 VONB on AER│YoY Change
Daiwa|USD769.5 million|+9%
Nomura|USD769.5 million|+9%
Credit Suisse|USD753 million|+6.7%
Goldman Sachs|USD749 million|+6%
JPMorgan|USD742 million|+5.1%
BofA Securities|USD727.5 million|+3%

Based on 3Q20 VONB of USD706 million.

Source: AAStocks Financial News