AIA Group 1299

[winston]

not vested

What’s New

AIA China contributed 38% of total VONB in 1H20 and outpaced AIA HK’s contribution for the first time

Additional VONB contribution from China’s market liberalisation to reach Rmb2.6bn by FY26F

Lower VONB forecasts by 15% for FY20/21F on COVID-19 impact but revise up AIA China’s VONB growth by 6-8%

Roll over valuation base to FY21F, and revised up TP to HK$92, based on our two-stage EV growth model

Source: DBS

https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/R ... giiikfhgbh

[winston]

not vested

JPM Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $94; Rated Overweight


Ahead of AIA (01299.HK)'s 3Q20 operational data release dated November 9, JPMorgan foretold new business value down by 29% yearly to US$700 million, mainly attributable to business interruptions from the coronavirus pandemic across Asia.

The broker retained Overweight on AIA at the target price $94, cut from $96, to reflect slackening business trend in 2H20.

C Suisse Hikes AIA (01299.HK) TP to $90; Rated Outperform

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Thailand-related concerns overdone

AIA’s share price underperformance due to investor concerns about the impact of Thailand’s protests on its operations looks overdone to us.

An analysis of past states of emergencies in Thailand suggests there is little to be concerned about, from an operational and share price point of view.

The recent movements in both bond yields and exchange rates have been favourable to AIA.

Reiterate our Add rating with a slight increase in GGM-based TP to HK$86

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... AD80F96B94

[winston]

not vested

3Q20F: A need to re-anchor expectations

We see consensus re-anchoring expectations downwards at the 3Q20F results, with our 3Q20 forecast of a 33% VONB fall, the lowest on the street.

AIA China has taken a one-off hit from subsidiarisation as well as weakerthan-expected Aug and Sep 2020 sales.

We do not project a significant improvement in VONB growth rates in ASEAN and HK remained the most difficult market in 3Q20F, in our view.

We see short-term share price weakness following recent strength as a buying opportunity for the medium-to-long term. Add rating & TP unchanged at HK$86

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... BCB72FA73E

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Sequential growth

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2019 value of new business breakdown:
1. Hong Kong 37% (vs 2018’s 41%)
2. China 26% (vs 2018’s 23%)
3. Thailand 11% (flat)
4. Singapore 8% (vs 2018’s 9%)
5. Malaysia 6% (flat)
6. Others 12% (vs 2018’s 10%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although low rates and potential uncertainties in HK is expected to weigh on group performance this year, its longer term structural drivers of China expansion & Asia middle income exposure remain intact. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

New business shows signs of comeback for AIA

by Winnie Lee

AIA (1299) says the value of third-quarter new business was up 22 percent compared to a quarter ago but fell 28 percent year-on-year to US$706 million (HK$5.51 billion).

There has been an improvement in the adverse lapse experience in the first half of the year in Thailand and Malaysia.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ck-for-AIA

[winston]

not vested

Help from unexpected regions

3Q20’s VONB beat our forecasts (though lower than consensus) on strength in Singapore and Malaysia (we estimate double-digit growth yoy).

We had partially expected China’s 3Q20 VONB fall. Looking ahead, the double-digit rise in new recruits, total agents and agency leaders is positive.

The proportion of sales sourced from face-to-face meetings is rising, while in mainland China, new customers have started rising at end-3Q20, in our view.

Raised FY20F VONB by 3% and TP by 2% to HK$88. Add rating maintained.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 7CE745ECBA

[winston]

not vested

Hong Kong: AIA Group's broad earnings sources enable 'very strong' financial results

AIA's after-tax operating profit increased by 5% year on year to $2.9bn in 1H2020 despite a decline in the value of new business (VNB).

The group's VNB decreased by 34% y-o-y on a constant exchange basis to $2.1bn in 3Q2020 while its VNB margin dropped by 12.6 percentage points to 53.4%.

Source: Fitch

https://www.asiainsurancereview.com/New ... ults-Fitch

[winston]

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Poised for recovery post pandemic

not vested

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2019 value of new business breakdown: Hong Kong 37% (vs 2018’s 41%), China 26% (vs 2018’s 23%), Thailand 11% (flat), Singapore 8% (vs 2018’s 9%), Malaysia 6% (flat), Others 12% (vs 2018’s 10%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s new business value growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group new business value skids by 33pc to US$2.7b

Pan-Asian insurer, AIA Group (1299) said today new business value fell by 33 percent on-year to US$2.76 billion in the year ended December 31, 2020.

Annualized new premiums dropped by 20 percent to US$5.21 billion

Value of new business margin fell by 10.4 percentage points to 52.6 percent

VONB was up by 15 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2021.

Operating profit after tax was up by 5 percent to US$5.94 billion, the group said.

AIA recommended a 7.5 percent increase in final dividend for 2020 to 100.30 Hong Kong cents per share.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... to-US$2.7b