AIA Group 1299 02 (Jun 20 - Dec 27)

[winston]

not vested

3Q20F: A need to re-anchor expectations

We see consensus re-anchoring expectations downwards at the 3Q20F results, with our 3Q20 forecast of a 33% VONB fall, the lowest on the street.

AIA China has taken a one-off hit from subsidiarisation as well as weakerthan-expected Aug and Sep 2020 sales.

We do not project a significant improvement in VONB growth rates in ASEAN and HK remained the most difficult market in 3Q20F, in our view.

We see short-term share price weakness following recent strength as a buying opportunity for the medium-to-long term. Add rating & TP unchanged at HK$86

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... BCB72FA73E

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Sequential growth

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2019 value of new business breakdown:
1. Hong Kong 37% (vs 2018’s 41%)
2. China 26% (vs 2018’s 23%)
3. Thailand 11% (flat)
4. Singapore 8% (vs 2018’s 9%)
5. Malaysia 6% (flat)
6. Others 12% (vs 2018’s 10%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although low rates and potential uncertainties in HK is expected to weigh on group performance this year, its longer term structural drivers of China expansion & Asia middle income exposure remain intact. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

New business shows signs of comeback for AIA

by Winnie Lee

AIA (1299) says the value of third-quarter new business was up 22 percent compared to a quarter ago but fell 28 percent year-on-year to US$706 million (HK$5.51 billion).

There has been an improvement in the adverse lapse experience in the first half of the year in Thailand and Malaysia.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ck-for-AIA

[winston]

not vested

Help from unexpected regions

3Q20’s VONB beat our forecasts (though lower than consensus) on strength in Singapore and Malaysia (we estimate double-digit growth yoy).

We had partially expected China’s 3Q20 VONB fall. Looking ahead, the double-digit rise in new recruits, total agents and agency leaders is positive.

The proportion of sales sourced from face-to-face meetings is rising, while in mainland China, new customers have started rising at end-3Q20, in our view.

Raised FY20F VONB by 3% and TP by 2% to HK$88. Add rating maintained.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 7CE745ECBA

[winston]

not vested

Hong Kong: AIA Group's broad earnings sources enable 'very strong' financial results

AIA's after-tax operating profit increased by 5% year on year to $2.9bn in 1H2020 despite a decline in the value of new business (VNB).

The group's VNB decreased by 34% y-o-y on a constant exchange basis to $2.1bn in 3Q2020 while its VNB margin dropped by 12.6 percentage points to 53.4%.

Source: Fitch

https://www.asiainsurancereview.com/New ... ults-Fitch

[winston]

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Poised for recovery post pandemic

not vested

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2019 value of new business breakdown: Hong Kong 37% (vs 2018’s 41%), China 26% (vs 2018’s 23%), Thailand 11% (flat), Singapore 8% (vs 2018’s 9%), Malaysia 6% (flat), Others 12% (vs 2018’s 10%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s new business value growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group new business value skids by 33pc to US$2.7b

Pan-Asian insurer, AIA Group (1299) said today new business value fell by 33 percent on-year to US$2.76 billion in the year ended December 31, 2020.

Annualized new premiums dropped by 20 percent to US$5.21 billion

Value of new business margin fell by 10.4 percentage points to 52.6 percent

VONB was up by 15 percent year-on-year in the first two months of 2021.

Operating profit after tax was up by 5 percent to US$5.94 billion, the group said.

AIA recommended a 7.5 percent increase in final dividend for 2020 to 100.30 Hong Kong cents per share.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... to-US$2.7b

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Recovery in progress

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%)
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%)
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%)
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8% )
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%)
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

Ratings & TPs on AIA (01299.HK) (Table)

AIA (01299.HK) was expected to release 1Q21 results next Friday.

Brokers│Ratings│TPs (HK$)
Morgan Stanley│Overweight│130
Daiwa│Buy│128
JPMorgan│Overweight│125
Credit Suisse│Outperform│120
CICC│Outperform│120
Goldman Sachs│Buy (CL Buy)│116
Citigroup│Buy│116
UBS│Buy│115
BNP Paribas│Hold│95
HSBC Global Research│Hold│94

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Brokers See AIA (01299.HK) 1Q21 VoNB +17% on CN Biz Strength (Update)

Credit Suisse expected AIA (01299.HK) to unveil 1Q21 results on 14 May.

Helped by China's business performance, the firm's 1Q21 VoNB (on AER basis) may range US$967.2 million to US$1.008 billion, up 15%-19.9% YoY according to brokers' forecast as compiled by our reporters.

The median forecast is US$984 million, up 17% YoY.

Brokers│1Q21E VoNB (US$)│YoY Change
Credit Suisse│1.008 billion│+19.9%
CICC│992 million│+18%
JPMorgan│976 million│+16%
Daiwa│967.2 million│+15%

Based on 1Q20 VoNB of US$841 million (down 28% on AER basis).

Source: AAStocks Financial News