Emerging Markets 01 (May 08 - Dec 11)

[millionairemind]

Emerging Market Equity Fund Outflows Reach 2008 High, EPFR Says


By Reinie Booysen

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Global emerging markets equity funds posted the highest outflows of 2009 in the third week of August, while China equity funds had their worst week since early in the first quarter of 2008, EPFR Global said.

“China’s resilient growth has been a key driver of flows into emerging markets equity funds in recent months,” EPFR said in an e-mail. “During the third week of August, however, doubts about the quality of the loans doled out at breakneck speed by Chinese banks during the first half of 2009 prompted investors to book profits and take some of their recent gains off the table.”

EPFR Global provides fund flows and asset allocation data to financial institutions around the world.

[winston]

When would the trickle turn into a flood ?

[winston]

From CIMB:-

Go with the Flows - Fund flows: rebalancing and going cyclical

The easy money has been made. Over the last four months, as money gets furiously channeled into the equities markets, cash share in total foreign fund holdings have seen a steady downtrend from its Feb 09 peak. Overall net flows trend since March 09 align closely with the sharp equities market run up.

Correspondingly, cash holdings now lie close to previous cycles low. But it is not over yet. We expect mid term market sustainability and for rebalancing of fund flows within Asia to occur, away from China which has seen sharp holdings gain over recent years.

Higher weighting should be geared towards externally exposed markets and cyclical sectors under an environment of low interest rates, firmer commodities prices and macro recovery in our view, market volatility not withstanding.

Indonesia has already seen higher holdings share allocation in recent months. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore are other cyclical markets likely to benefit as the economic recovery kicks into place.

( Again, what's so exciting about Singapore to a Global Investor ? As it is, valuation in Spore are that cheap anymore. Am I missing something ? )

[winston]

Emerging-Market Equity Flows Positive, China Surges, EPFR Says By Garfield Reynolds

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market equity funds received net inflows in the week to Aug. 26, reviving from the previous week’s biggest outflows in 2009, EPFR Global said.

China funds received $480 million, recovering from their worst week since the first quarter of 2008, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company.

Investors put a net $168 million into funds for Asia excluding Japan, after pulling out $810 million the previous week.

[winston]

Emerging Portfolio Fund Research data shows that a net of US$7.32 billion (HK$57.09 billion) flew into global equity funds for the week ending August 26.

Since the start of the year, US$250 billion had been redeemed from the currency funds, equal to half of the total subscriptions made last year.

In other words, investors are taking more risks rather than parking their money in safer assets.

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK:Investors Trimming China Positions Gradually-Daiwa

1407 [Dow Jones] Investors are "progressively" trimming Overweight positions on China equities, in favor of stocks in Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, says Daiwa Securities; although China-dedicated stock funds absorbed inflows of US$200 million last week, despite US$5 billion net selling of global equities.

"Uncertainties over China's monetary-policy outlook and weaker-than-expected macro data from the US continue to weigh on investor sentiment."

Adds, investors also concerned valuation of Asia ex-Japan equities are getting demanding.

[winston]

Get ready to sell emerging markets

Emerging-market stocks rose again today, pushing the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to new highs and a 56% total gain for the year. The index is now valued at 19.9 times reported earnings, its most expensive level since June 29, 2000, according to data from Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... .0GhC3O2nI

[winston]

Emerging Markets See More Flows Than Developed World (Update1) By Tian Huang

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets are set to attract more foreign direct investment than the developed world this year for the first time, said Laza Kekic, director for country forecasting services at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Foreign direct investment to emerging markets will fall 35 percent to $533.9 billion in 2009, while developed countries may see a decline of 52 percent to $441.3 billion, the report said.

Emerging markets’ share of global inflows in 2009 “will almost certainly be the highest on record,” Kekic wrote.

Developing nations are attracting more investment because of their faster economic growth, he wrote.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended that investors buy emerging-market equities and sell advanced-nation shares as developing economies recover faster from the global recession.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index has rallied 66 percent this year, compared with a 24 percent advance for the MSCI World index of developed markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kxYZMVrzNQ

[winston]

Emerging Fund Inflows Surge to 2009 High, EPFR Says (Update2)

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market equity fund inflows surged in the second week of October on optimism improving U.S. earnings and China’s trade figures signal increased demand for commodities, EPFR Global said.

Global emerging market equity funds received a net $2.1 billion and emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa managers got $358 million, the biggest inflows this year, EPFR said in a statement today. The company says it tracks funds overseeing some $10 trillion of assets globally. Asia ex-Japan funds received $823 million, it said. China funds took in $130 million and Korea lured $128 million.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 7XcBS8wt5A

[winston]

Van Agtmael Says Best Gains in Emerging Markets Over (Update2)
By Zeb Eckert and Shiyin Chen

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The largest gains in the developing- nation rally may be over as valuations have become less attractive, said investor Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term “emerging markets.”

In the next six months, stock markets are unlikely to repeat the “100 percent returns” generated since March, van Agtmael, who oversees about $12 billion as chairman and chief investment officer of Emerging Markets Management LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Washington today. Stocks are “fairly priced,” he added.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has more than doubled from this year’s low reached on March 2. Developing nations make up all 10 of the world’s best performing stock markets, with Russia, Peru and Ukraine leading gains, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. The investor said on March 20 equities will surge in the next 12 months after valuations fell to the cheapest level in at least 30 years.

“The biggest part of the rally is over but I don’t think the rally is completely over yet,” the Arlington, Virginia- based investor said. “We’re coming towards the tail end of what was really a huge rally but only in the middle of a trend that is very strong for many, many years to come.”

The MSCI index is valued at 21 times reported earnings, up from a low of 6.7 times reached in October 2008.

Brazil and Indonesia are among markets where van Agtmael said he’s become more cautious after a surge in their currencies and stock markets. The Middle East remains attractive because it has lagged behind in the rally, while Taiwanese shares still offer “good value,” van Agtmael said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... IgcbIEVgwE