Grab

[winston]

vested

Indonesia delivery fare formula suggests muted impact

Unlike the existing 8% commission cap on two-wheel passenger rides, Indonesia’s delivery framework will provide pricing guidance without prescribed upper or lower fare limits.

We expect the impact to Grab’s group adjusted (adj) EBITDA to be near our low stress scenario (~2% adverse impact in FY27F) rather than our high stress scenario (~7% impact in FY27F).

Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of USD5.00. Grab trades at a lower FY27F non-GAAP PE of 12x vs Sea Ltd’s 19x while both offer non-GAAP EPS CAGR of 24% over FY26F-28F.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=32868

[winston]

vested

3Q26 resilience, but catalysts fade in 4Q26

3Q26E: resilient growth despite FX headwind

We forecast 3Q26 revenue of USD1.10b (+26% YoY), 3% above Street estimates, & adj EBITDA of USD199m (+47% YoY), 4% ahead of consensus.

GMV should grow 18% YoY to USD6.83b despite a 3–4ppt FX headwind.

Deliveries GMV should rise 20% YoY, supported by Thailand and non-food categories, while Mobility GMV growth moderates to 15% YoY.

Financial Services revenue could double YoY to USD182m, aided by Stash acquisition, with segment EBITDA approaching breakeven.

Overall, momentum remains resilient, although underlying growth trends warrant closer attention.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/567237.pdf