China - Housing 06 (Nov 21 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

The mainland property market seems bottomless.
Economic data is slowing, and "bank-supplied homes" are booming.

陸房市看無底.經濟數據放緩 「銀行直供房」火熱｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞20251117 ‪@tvbsfocus‬

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LB1VVv3M9uM

[winston]

UBS: China's property slump likely to persist for at least 2 more years

The downturn in China's property market, now in its fourth year, is far from over and a recovery is unlikely for at least another two years.

"Anyone who bought a home in the past 10 years has likely lost money" and it has "fundamentally changed people's expectations about home prices."

Lam forecasts that, barring major stimulus measures from Beijing, prices for pre-owned homes in China's top-tier cities will fall by another 10 percent in 2026, followed by a further 5 percent drop in 2027.

As price declines shake the long-held belief that property is a safe investment, more potential buyers are expected to stay on the sidelines.

The analyst also pointed to a growing preference for renting over buying, driven by rental yields in first-tier cities falling significantly below mortgage rates.

His research indicates that the average rental yield in China's first-tier cities was 1.81 percent in October, compared to the national average mortgage rate of 3.07 percent.

Lam highlighted rental prices as an early indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the housing market, "because this metric is not subject to government intervention."

He expects the downward trend in home prices to halt only once rental prices stabilize.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/317628/

[behappyalways]

China property crisis thrust back into spotlight by Vanke plunge
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... nke-plunge

[behappyalways]

China tells stats providers to halt home sales data publication — Bloomberg
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... -bloomberg


*Two of China’s private data agencies withheld monthly #home sales figures at the government’s behest, people familiar with the matter said, stoking transparency concerns in a critical sector of the world’s second-largest economy.
https://x.com/ChinaPropFocus/status/1995431051733414361

[winston]

China property crisis: UBS predicts 2.4 million foreclosures by 2027 as loan defaults rise

Apartments seized from small businesses could reach more than 2.4 million by 2027, according to UBS’ John Lam

by Cao Li

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... pe=section

[winston]

Property market bracing for big overhaul in China

In 2024, the real estate and construction sectors together accounted for a combined 13 percent of China's GDP.

With an ageing population, declining birth rates, regional population shifts, and evolving lifestyles, housing needs have become more personalised and diversified.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China constructed more than 11 million units of affordable housing and resettlement housing, benefiting over 30 million people.

Source: China Daily

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... l-in-china

[behappyalways]

China's home-price slump persists as authorities vow stability
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... -stability

[winston]

China reportedly drops rules that sparked property crisis, developer shares surge

By Clare Jim

The "three red lines" refer to caps on debt-to-cash, debt-to-assets and debt-to-equity ratios that Chinese authorities imposed in 2020 on developers for obtaining new lending.

The idea was to rein in the sector's appetite for unbridled borrowing but it backfired spectacularly, by causing a liquidity crunch from mid-2021 and many developers have since defaulted on their debt.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/791062

[behappyalways]

Apocalyptic scenes reveal vast cities of ROTTING tower blocks and shopping malls across China
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=80XQFSxWjBA