Tenaga Nasional

[winston]

Electricity demand rebounds to new record

1H25 normalised net profit was broadly in line with our forecast.

TNB maintained interim DPS at 25 sen, with no provision made for tax liability.

Quarterly electricity demand rebounded in 2Q25 to a new high, driven mainly by the commercial sector.

Regulated capex spend in 1H25 was up 44% yoy.

Reiterate Add, with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM18.00.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 95850304F3

[winston]

vested

Tenaga To Spearhead Malaysia’s Cross-border Energy Transmission Expansion

Tenaga is poised to benefit from the numerous projects under the ASEAN Power Grid initiative, including:
a) the Malaysia-Singapore second power interconnection, and
b) the Sarawak-Peninsular Malaysia interconnection project.

Malaysia’s nuclear energy adoption is expected to be a boon to Tenaga should they be the frontrunners to pioneer Malaysia’s first nuclear power plant.

Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of RM16.30.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

vested

TNB now undervalued with tax concerns fully priced in, says its most bullish analyst

By Ameera Fathina

Undervalued with its shares having fully priced in the worst outcome of its RM10 billion tax disputes, said its most bullish analyst.

The past four months’ decline wiped out RM10.4 billion from its market value,

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/775280

[winston]

vested

From overhang to opportunity

TNB shares have priced in the full tax liability; our worse-case TP still offers 28% upside.

A favourable tax settlement could trigger a meaningful re-rating.

RP4’s capex uplift and GenCo’s new gas plant opportunities position TNB for a capex-led earnings upcycle, potentially adding >RM1.1bn p.a. to profits.

Reiterate Add with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM18.00.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 72ECCB1D36

[winston]

Finally, a resolution to the tax dispute

MoF has approved Tenaga’s IA application, resolving its long-standing tax dispute and providing clarity that should reduce future cash tax burdens.

Electricity demand trended to another new high in 3Q25, driven mainly by the commercial sector.

Regulated capex spend in 9M25 was up 40% yoy.

Reiterate Add as we believe the market has yet to price in the income upside potential from the notably higher capex under RP4.

TP: 18.00

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... CF10925A05

[winston]

vested

9M25: In Line; Receives MOF Approval For 7B Income Tax Schedule For A Fair Amount To Be Offset Against Future Income

TNB reported healthy 3Q25 normalised net profit of RM1,037m – a growth of 38% yoy and 4% qoq.

9M25 normalised net profit of RM3,234m makes up 74% of our projections, in line with expectations.

TNB has received MOF’s approval for Investment Allowance under Schedule 7B.

This clears an overhang on the stock as no future provision is expected.

While not the whole RM10.6b have been approved, a fair amount has been approved by MOF to be offset against future income.

Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of RM16.30.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

vested

5347 TENAGA (BUY)
Approved claims for ITA YA 2003-2024

Tenaga reported 3QFY25 core PATMI at RM956.5m (+12.7% QoQ; +75.4% YoY) and 9MFY25 at RM2.9bn (+6.1% YoY).

We deem the results below our expectation (63.7%) and consensus (64.9%), mainly dragged by higher than expected depreciation charges and tax expenses.

Tenaga has received approvals from MoF with regard to its claimed ITA for YA 2003-2024, which can be deducted from future earnings.

We believe Tenaga to be a major beneficiary for EC’s call for tender for extension of expired/coming to expired gas-fired power plant PPA and new gas-fired power plant PPA, as well as RE projects.

Maintain BUY recommendation on Tenaga with an unchanged DCFE-derived TP of RM16.20.

Source: HLIB

[winston]

vested

Moving on from taxes

Prepaying tax dispute 3Q25 results were below expectation due to higher running tax rates.

TNB prepaid the disputed tax and disclosed (without quantifying) its Schedule 7B application was approved.

We view Tenaga favourably, with the tax overhang paid for and priced-in.

Our FY25-27E earnings forecasts are lowered to reflect higher tax rates.

Maintain BUY with a lower DCF-based TP of MYR14.50 (from MYR15.50) after reflecting the tax prepayment.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/502087.pdf

[winston]

Of taxes and dividends

We expect Tenaga’s effective tax rate to ease to ~25% from 2026F, below the earlier 29–30% guidance, after settling its long-standing tax dispute.

In spite of the immediate cashflow impact, dividends and capex remain well supported by ample debt headroom and strong cashflow generation.

Share price underperformance following the tax dispute resolution further skews the balance of risk to the upside, in our view. Reiterate Add.

TP: RM 16.60

Source: CGS

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file=7008dbbf-d2dc-482f-9a27-41e0c303c885&rpt=D13A8C5F-220E-6109-B351-18008E96A35B

[winston]

Bitcoin miners hunted after stealing US$1bil of electricity from Malaysian grid

Drones buzz over rows of shops and abandoned houses, sweeping for pockets of unexpected heat, the thermal signature of machines that shouldn’t be running.

On the ground, police carry handheld sensors that sniff out irregular power use.

Sometimes the pursuit is more low-tech: residents call in with complaints of strange bird noises, only for officers to discover nature sounds being used to mask the roar of machinery behind closed doors.

The miners hop from empty storefronts to deserted houses, installing heat shields to cloak the glow of their rigs. They equip entrances with CCTV cameras, heavy-duty security and broken-glass deterrents to keep unwanted visitors out.

Recorded about 14,000 illicit mining sites over the past five years. Power theft has inflicted about $1.1 billion in losses on state-owned energy company Tenaga Nasional, or TNB.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ysian-grid