China - Housing 06 (Nov 21 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

After 30 years of unfinished work, Guangzhou Australian Villa sees the light of day

烂尾30载 广州澳洲山庄迎来曙光

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=th7zDCX0Bec

[behappyalways]

Worth re-iterating new signs of weakness in China's housing market
https://x.com/shehzadhqazi/status/1940494166297137335

[behappyalways]

China Property Stocks Erupt On Rumors Beijing May Revive 2015 Stimulus Playbook
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... s-playbook

[behappyalways]

Goldman Warns of "Accelerated Property Price Declines" Across Chinese Cities
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldm ... ese-cities

[behappyalways]

UBS Pushes Back China Property Recovery Timeline Amid Faltering Sales
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-d ... s-momentum

[winston]

<CN Home>CN Reportedly Plans to Support SOEs in Acquiring Unsold Commercial Properties

China is preparing to mobilize SOEs to acquire unsold residential properties from distressed property developers, Bloomberg quoted sources as saying.

The plan involves requesting assistance from large SOEs and non-performing asset managers, including CHINA CINDA (01359.HK), to help resolve the issue of excess property inventory.

Related News - JPM: Beijing's Easing of Housing Purchase Restrictions Still Limited, Unlikely to Sustain Mkt Recovery

These companies will be permitted to utilize the RMB300 billion allocated by the central bank last year for this initiative.

In May 2024, China also arranged for local SOEs to purchase completed unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices, but the effect was minimal.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

Farewell! Evergrande's Hong Kong delisting five years after mainland China's golden age of real estate collapse

掰掰!陸房市黃金年代 恒大暴雷5年後港退市｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞20250825 ‪@tvbsfocus‬

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wzsBVS9mTjk

[winston]

<CN Home>UBS Still Estimates CN Property Mkt to Bottom Out in Mid- to Late-2026, High-End Homes to Stay in Demand

John Lam, Head of APAC Property Research at UBS Investment Bank, said that prices of Chinese office, retail, and residential properties , are still in a slow downside phase.

Not only have residential prices fallen 30-40% from their peaks over the past 3-4 years, but rents have also been thrown into a downtrend, which Lam attributed to employment challenges amid an uncertain domestic economy and the increased supply of affordable housing.

It is predicted that residential rents in first-tier cities will continue to fall by about 3-4% YoY this year.

UBS maintains its view that the Chinese property market won't bottom out until mid- to late-2026.

Lam added that rents must first find a floor for housing prices to stabilize and rebound.

Meanwhile, the relaxation of price caps on new homes in China since last year has driven stronger sales in the high-end home segment as it has prompted developers to shift toward higher-end projects to meet demand for housing upgrades. Lam expects this trend to continue.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

"New home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in August...Year-on-year, prices fell 2.2% in September versus a 2.5% drop in August..Secondary home prices slid 3.2% year-on-year in tier-one cities, 5.0% in tier-two, and 5.7% in tier-three."
https://x.com/shehzadhqazi/status/1980739068347531435

[winston]

China’s property crisis to extend into 2026, threatens banks’ asset quality: Fitch

Stimulus has averted a hard landing in the sector, preventing new developer defaults

The country’s new home sales by area may decline 15 to 20 per cent from their current level before the sector stabilises.

Transactions by value may drop another 7 to 10 per cent next year.

“A meaningful property recovery will only come after the job market stabilises and household income rebounds, which would require a basket of policies and a long period of time.”

The dim outlook for the domestic home market also means banks’ bad debt in the property segment will likely remain “elevated” next year.

The nation’s lenders are expected to keep up the momentum in 2026 to dispose of bad loans either through direct write-offs or transfers to asset management firms.

Chinese banks had 3.4 trillion yuan (S$620 billion) of non-performing loans at the end of June, nearing the peak last March.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/proper ... lity-fitch