Interest Rates 02 (Nov 14 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Traders look for US$10 million payout in bet on 5 pc US yield

The US 10-year yield was steady at 4.52 percent at 5:35 a.m. ET but remained higher on the week. If sustained, that would bring to an end a a four-week streak of declines.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... c-US-yield

[winston]

The reversal of bond yields’ multi-decade direction

by Jeff Clark

Long-term interest rates peaked in 1982, with the 30-year Treasury Bond yielding 14%.

Rates then declined for the next 40 years – hitting as low as 0.4% during the COVID crisis in 2020.

In the last three years, the 30-year Treasury yield broke out above a 40-year declining resistance line.

Interest rates are up 60% since 2022 – and 1,100% higher than their 2020 lows. Borrowing money now costs 11 times more than it did five years ago.

If this bond direction continues, it will be a headwind to stock returns that we haven’t faced in about 45 years.

The U.S. government – with $9 trillion of its $36 trillion national debt due to mature in 2025 – for lack of a better word… is screwed.

All of that debt will be refinanced at higher interest rates.

The U.S. Treasury’s annual interest expense passed $1.117 trillion last year, making it the second-largest government expense on record.

The national debt has grown from less than $1 trillion in 1982 to almost $37 trillion today, and nothing bad has happened.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

NIRP Is Back As Swiss National Bank Cuts Rates To Zero, Introduces Stealth Negative Rates
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nirp- ... tive-rates


Liquidity Floodgates Open As 3 Central Banks Unexpectedly Cut Rates In Under 24 Hours
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/liq ... r-24-hours

[behappyalways]

Jamie Dimon warns that investors are assuming rates are going down, but says they could surprise and go higher. Highlights deportations of farm workers, hotel workers and tariffs as the cause for a coming inflation spike.
https://x.com/GarethSoloway/status/1943658049602007094