Risks Out There 07 (May 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

These are the biggest risks we face now and in the next 10 years

Extreme weather events remain at number 2 and number 1

Pollution is seen as a more pressing short-term risk, and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse perceived as a greater threat in the longer term.

State-based armed conflict is the top current risk in 2025 and is also up from number 5 to number 3 in the 2-year timeline.

Source: WEF

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01 ... edictions/

[behappyalways]

The government is having trouble paying off its debts! The US "debt boom" is over!

'25.01.15【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 政府舉債困難！美國「債務繁榮」結束！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uvgNNZLJw_A

[winston]

Be wary of risk from the left-right battle

by Andrew Wong

While many global leaders and wealthy elites disapprove of him, his policies resonate with ordinary citizens.

Additionally, right-wing or far-right forces like Trump's have been on the rise in recent months.

This includes Germany's far-right party, Alternative for Germany.

Over the past 10 to 20 years, most governments worldwide have been dominated by left-wing parties. However, geopolitical risks have continued to escalate, and the gap between the rich and the poor has widened.

As a result, many voices criticize left-wing parties for their calls for love and inclusivity, labeling them as "hypocritical" and accusing them of merely protecting their own interests.

The current landscape is far more complex than just a Sino-US trade war. It is a struggle between left- and right-wing ideologies, as well as a conflict between the lower classes and the super-rich.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ght-battle

[behappyalways]

The Bubble Indicator: Is The Stock Market Overheating?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bubbl ... verheating

[winston]

JPM Raises Odds of US Econ Recession This Yr to 40%; Current Govt Admin. Style Shakes Investor Confidence

The chances of the US economy falling into a recession this year have risen to 40%, compared with JPMorgan's estimation of 30% at the start of the year, Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at JPMorgan, said at a forum.

The broker's worries about the US economy intensified significantly, Kasman added.

While there has been no formal revision to the forecasts, JPMorgan kept its current forecast of 2% GDP growth for the US this year unchanged.

Related News: Fed Governor Sees Room for 2-3 Rate Cuts This Yr

If the US government continues its disturbing demeanor, it will shake investors' confidence in US assets, US market and US institutions, that have been built up over the years, Kasman foresaw.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

Trump's tariff war turns hairpin, is it caused by the attack on US debt?
The US dollar exchange market may be the next black swan!

川普關稅戰髮夾彎 美債被狙擊導致？ 陳鳳馨示警：美元匯市恐是下一個黑天鵝！【#風向龍鳳配】｜CC字幕

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f8tbE5UtD3Q

[behappyalways]

Oof. We just saw the largest foreign selling of US corporate bonds since the COVID crash. What are they seeing that they want to avoid?
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1913912189519339963

[behappyalways]

The American capital flight trade is back. Stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all sharply down. Gold way up. The pattern is new to US but familiar in emerging markets that are becoming submerging markets.
https://x.com/LHSummers/status/1914487881185271985

[behappyalways]

Paul Tudor Jones: AI poses an imminent threat to humanity in our lifetime
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wrESBnPYo ... 5lcw%3D%3D

[behappyalways]

Re the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt.

They don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they're getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they're getting).

Said differently, for those who care about the value of their money, the risks for U.S. government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying.

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1924452875108839862