US - Housing 03 (Aug 20 - Dec 26)

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Housing
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1790698933800354154

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Rents Are Plunging In These Major U.S. Cities
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rents ... -us-cities

[winston]

Homebuyers are starting to revolt over steep prices across US

By Prashant Gopal & Michael Sasso

The US housing market — long crippled by an inventory drought — is finally starting to see listings rise. But now, in many places, the buyers just aren’t showing up.

Sellers are grappling with the fact that higher-for-longer rates are choking off demand during what’s typically the key season for the market.

And more of those owners are cutting asking prices than any time since November 2022 as inventory grows stale.

“With mortgage rates rising back over 7%, the willingness of homebuyers to take a stab this season is diminished” .

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/713921

[winston]

Contracts to buy US previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in May, indicating sales could remain subdued for a while as potential buyers grapple with higher mortgage rates and prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday (Jun 27) its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, dropped 2.1 per cent last month to 70.8.

Pending home sales fell in the densely populated South and the Midwest, which is considered a more affordable region. The rose in the Northeast and West.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rebounding 2.5 per cent.

Pending home sales dropped 6.6 per cent in May on a year-on-year basis.

The housing market has been thumped by a resurgence in mortgage rates, with sales and home building slumping in May.

Residential investment is expected to have softened in the second quarter after posting double-digit growth in the January-March quarter.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached a six-month high of 7.22 per cent in early May before retreating to 7.03 per cent by the end of the month, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

It has since dropped to an average of 6.87 per cent during the week ending June 20.

Source: Phillips

[winston]

The structural imbalance in the housing market

There's a massive shortage of homes — somewhere between 4 and 7 million. And those who are able to find homes are spending a much bigger chunk of their paycheck than in recent years.

Despite a pandemic construction boom, the U.S housing shortage grew to 4.5 million homes in 2022, up from 4.3 million the year before, according to a new analysis from Zillow®. This deepening housing deficit is the root cause of the housing affordability crisis…

Across the country in 2022, there were roughly 8.09 million "missing households" — individuals or families living with non-relatives. Compare that to 3.55 million housing units that were available for rent or for sale, and there is a housing shortage of more than 4.5 million.

The pandemic-era housing frenzy sparked a construction boom but thus far, that boom has fallen short.

In 2022, 1.4 million homes were built — at the time, the best year for home construction since the early stages of the Great Recession.

However, the number of U.S. families increased by 1.8 million that year, meaning the country did not even build enough to make a place for the new families, let alone begin chipping away at the deficit that has hampered housing affordability for more than a decade.

Source: Investor Place

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Why The U.S. Can’t Build Homes Fast Enough
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PhfYARIpF6Y

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Homebuyer's Down Payment Hits 'Record High,' Surging Nearly 15 Percent In A Year
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... rcent-year

[winston]

US existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, likely as prospective buyers held out for lower mortgage rates, with house prices remaining elevated.

Home sales fell 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday.

Economists had forecast home resales would be unchanged at a rate of 3.86 million units.

Home resales, which account for a large portion of US housing sales, decreased 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September.

Housing inventory increased 1.5% to 1.39 million units last month, the highest since October 2020.

Supply surged 23.0% from one year ago. Despite the improving supply, the median existing home price increased 3.0% from a year earlier to US$404,500 in September.

Properties typically stayed on the market for 28 days in September compared to 21 days a year ago.

First-time buyers accounted for 26% of sales versus 27% a year ago.

Source: Phillips

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US Home Prices Surge To 17th Consecutive All-Time High
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... -time-high

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LA Landlords Hike Rent As Much As 124% As Fires Force Thousands To Flee
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sup ... sands-flee