Interest Rates 02 (Nov 14 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Where are yields heading?

The Treasury Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as it looks to handle its heavy debt load and with financing costs rising…

Most immediately, Treasury will auction $112 billion in debt next week to refund $102.2 billion of notes set to mature Nov. 15, raising more than $9 billion in extra funds…

The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.

Markets have been concerned about whether there will be enough demand to meet Treasury’s needs, which would send yields up even further and possibly cause financial distress.

Source: CNBC

[winston]

Not a great combo

Druckenmiller is betting on a bull market in short-term bonds due to growing risk of an economic meltdown.

On the other hand, we have Druckenmiller’s bet against long-term bonds thanks to our government’s endless need for revenues.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

UBS said today that they expect the Fed to cut by 275 basis points next year

Source: Forbes

[winston]

With central banks flying blind, can markets really count on lower interest rates?

Expectations that leading Western central banks will cut interest rates next year have reached fever pitch, but these hopes are likely to be in vain

Investors banking on rate cuts must keep an eye on core inflation, central banks choosing pauses versus cuts and further shocks to the global economy

by Nicholas Spiro

Even after the most intense monetary tightening cycle in decades, the average core inflation rate – which strips out volatile food and energy prices – in advanced economies stands at 4.3 per cent, according to JPMorgan data.

This is only slightly more than 1 per cent below its level at the end of last year, when fears about stagflation were rife. It is also more than double the 2 per cent target of many central banks.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... 1952b3f461

[winston]

$7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year, adding pressure on rates

by Filip De Mott

A whopping $7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year.

That represents 31% of all outstanding US government debt, adding upward pressure on rates.

That's still below 2020, when debt maturing within a year made up a significantly larger share.

Nearly a third of all outstanding US government debt is set to mature in the next 12 months.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-6-tril ... 43412.html

[behappyalways]

Dude’s entire life has been in a zero interest rate environment
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/stat ... 9655592303

[winston]

The Real Truth About Interest Rates

by Marc Lichtenfeld

With stocks climbing and interest rates falling, my interpretation is that inflation is fading and the Fed should be close to finished with its rate hikes.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/12/08/ ... est-rates/

[behappyalways]

US 30Y Yield Tumbles Back Below 4.00%, Financial Conditions Loosest Since May 2022
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-30 ... t-may-2022

[winston]

Lower Interest Rates Aren’t Coming

by Jeff Clark

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February were reported hotter than expected. That follows hotter-than-expected inflation reports for January as well.

Agricultural commodity prices are up 7% in the past seven weeks. They’re up 12% since the start of the year.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/03/20/ ... nt-coming/

[behappyalways]

The Swiss central bank is front running the ECB and Fed, cutting rates by 25 bps to 1.5%
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 8902382828