Investment Strategies 04 (Apr 19 - Nov 23)

[behappyalways]

Huang Yiting talks about "The double pressure of inflation and economy makes it difficult for U.S. stocks to rise"

23.09.14【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「通膨與經濟雙重壓力重 美股上漲不易」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rTwDrmU8Zhw

[behappyalways]

"The latest interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve is released. Should investors advance? Should they retreat?"

'23.09.21【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「聯準會最新利率決策出爐 投資人該進？該退？」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cdI6EZyD1Vw

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

We’re entering a period of renewed turbulence and I believe that markets have been irrationally optimistic for much of this year, with the majority of upward price revisions led by a small cadre of stocks, many of which aren’t growing their earnings or revenue.

This multiple expansion, as inflation re-accelerates, has prompted rates to continue to move higher and the Fed to become even more adamant about “high(er) for longer”.

I believe that after such an incredible run in so few stocks leading the market higher, we’re likely to see risk re-rated, and sobriety come back to price discovery in the months to come.

Source: Macrovisor

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/macrovisor ... ancial-925

[behappyalways]

"Multiple negative bombings, US stock bulls flee"

'23.09.28【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「多重利空轟炸，美股多頭逃竄」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R-YKHly8PkE

[behappyalways]

The Weekend Edition # 108

Market Recap - Choppiness continues

Macro - What’s up with Bonds?

Earnings Season Q3 - Banks are having a ball

The Week Ahead - Economic & Earnings Calendars

Closing Thoughts - Further Chop?!

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/the-weekend-edition-108

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

Magnificent 7 are an even larger part of the NASDAQ 100, over 43%!

Correlation between stocks and bonds is on the rise again, a

The VIX saw 1.3 million calls bought on Friday, an extreme that sent the index surging higher.

Orange juice has been running hard, up 112.7% year-to-date.

Long positioning in oil is somewhat crowded.

Consumers, who account for the majority of the economy, are beginning to show some signs of strain in the bottom 40% of households.

Consumer electronics spending has been slowing. When we look at the PC market, Apple has seen a 24% year-over-year decline, with the overall space seeing a 9% drop.

China's economy remains rather weak overall, in a recovery that’s never quite taken off from the ground.

Source: Macro Visor

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/macro-char ... easonality

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

Global Rates Roar Higher

6-month Treasury bills are more attractive than the S&P 500.

“Magnificent 7” have a PE close to 45

Credit card delinquencies outside of the 100 largest banks have hit multi-decade highs.

About 50% of those 18-29 are living with family, the highest level since 1940.

Some components of inflation may be re-accelerating underneath the surface, including energy, components of agriculture and services. Speaking of which, health care costs are anticipated to rise at least 7% in 2024 for employers.

The percentage of household net worth invested in stocks is also near-all time highs (which were made in 2021).

Hedge funds are aggressively shorting single stocks, and have been for much of 2023.

Source: Macro Visor

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/charts-wee ... ull-market

[behappyalways]

Huang Yiting talks about "Good financial reports cannot support US stocks, short-term risk aversion is strong"

'23.10.26【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「好財報無力撐起美股 短線避險風濃」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V2F5fUoJUnA

[winston]

Top-ranked fund cuts firms boosted by weak yen, buys China Inc.

By Winnie Hsu

Pocketing gains in Japanese exporters on bets the yen’s tumble is nearing an end, and is instead buying Chinese shares that have become cheap.

Analysts see the yen strengthening to 145 per dollar in the fourth quarter. The currency has been supported by speculation that the Bank of Japan may tweak its super-easy monetary policy as soon as this week and there’s also concern that authorities might intervene in the foreign exchange market to buy the yen if it weakens too much.

Opportunities in property developers whose cash holdings exceed their liabilities as those firms could pick up assets from distressed companies.

Also likes factory automation firms that can compete against Japanese or German rivals and insurers who aim to grow by capturing the large uninsured population in mainland China.

Inflation in Japan has already exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target for 18 straight months and consumer price growth in Tokyo unexpectedly quickened in October. Higher prices may add to pressure on policymakers to prevent the yen from further weakening and worsening inflation.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/688039

[behappyalways]

The Weekend Edition # 110 - Where is the Euro going?

Market Recap - Are we in Correction?
Almost all the indices are now over 10% below their 52-week high, with the Russell 2000 small cap index close to -20%. By this measure, we are officially in correction territory with the small cap index threatening bear market territory.

Macro - Where is the Euro going?
We think the EUR / USD could move closer to parity once again, given the strength of the US and the Fed's resolve to keep rates higher-for-longer
As for European equities, forward P/E ratios suggest that the market is undervalued compared to their longer term median value of just above 13x.

Earnings Season Q3 - Downside favored

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/the-weekend-edition-110