This is getting a little silly. And yes, that is a new record low
Nasdaq vs Nasdaq Breadth
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 0126741695
|
|
US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 23)
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:33 pm
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by winston » Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:03 pm
HIGHS AND LOWS
NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Blackstone (BX)... asset management
Markel (MKL)... insurance
Splunk (SPLK)... cybersecurity
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)... cloud services
Reata Pharmaceuticals (RETA)... biopharmaceuticals
Toyota Motor (TM)... automaker
Honda Motor (HMC)... automaker
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Murphy USA (MUSA)... gas stations
Ryder System (R)... logistics
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)... oil and gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil refiner
Energy Transfer (ET)... natural gas
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
MarketAxess (MKTX)... electronic trading
Block (SQ)... cashless payments
Pfizer (PFE)... pharmaceuticals
ResMed (RMD)... medical devices
Target (TGT)... big-box retailer
Dollar General (DG)... discount retailer
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Chewy (CHWY)... pet products
Peloton Interactive (PTON)... e-fitness fad
Extra Space Storage (EXR)... self-storage
Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airline
JetBlue Airways (JBLU)... airline
RTX (RTX)... "offense" contractor
SBA Communications (SBAC)... cellphone towers
American Tower (AMT)... communications REIT
Crown Castle (CCI)... communications REIT
Source: Daily Wealth
NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Blackstone (BX)... asset management
Markel (MKL)... insurance
Splunk (SPLK)... cybersecurity
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)... cloud services
Reata Pharmaceuticals (RETA)... biopharmaceuticals
Toyota Motor (TM)... automaker
Honda Motor (HMC)... automaker
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Murphy USA (MUSA)... gas stations
Ryder System (R)... logistics
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)... oil and gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil refiner
Energy Transfer (ET)... natural gas
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
MarketAxess (MKTX)... electronic trading
Block (SQ)... cashless payments
Pfizer (PFE)... pharmaceuticals
ResMed (RMD)... medical devices
Target (TGT)... big-box retailer
Dollar General (DG)... discount retailer
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Chewy (CHWY)... pet products
Peloton Interactive (PTON)... e-fitness fad
Extra Space Storage (EXR)... self-storage
Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airline
JetBlue Airways (JBLU)... airline
RTX (RTX)... "offense" contractor
SBA Communications (SBAC)... cellphone towers
American Tower (AMT)... communications REIT
Crown Castle (CCI)... communications REIT
Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Wed Sep 27, 2023 4:38 pm
Unpopular opinion: $QQQ vs $TLT actually does matter
And $TLT is saying $QQQ has more room lower over the intermediate term
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3801331938
Asset managers sure are long this wobbly market
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3402947765
And $TLT is saying $QQQ has more room lower over the intermediate term
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3801331938
Asset managers sure are long this wobbly market
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3402947765
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Thu Sep 28, 2023 2:13 pm
equal-weighted S&P just turned negative on the year
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 4585023976
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 4585023976
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by winston » Mon Oct 02, 2023 8:48 am
Market trend analysis report "Topic #8 - S&P 500 tends to underperform following US yield curve un-inversion"
With the yield curve steepening lately where the 10-Year treasury yield is rising faster than the 2-Year treasury yield, the yield curve is approaching its closest to uninversion since the banking crisis took place in March.
This report looks at the consequence on S&P 500’s performance when the yield curve uninverts and steepens thereafter
Looking at the 3 instances in 1990, 2001, 2007 (excluding 2019 due to unprecedented US$2.2 trillion stimulus following the COVID-19 crisis) when the yield spread steepened significantly post uninversion, the S&P 500 has declined on average over 7% 6 months and over 9% a year after uninversion takes place, respectively.
In addition, in every instance following uninversion, the US economy went into recession within 2 years, with the median time at 16 months.
A plausible reason why the yield curve can predict recessions is because market participants anticipate the Fed will cut policy rates to provide monetary policy accommodation during a downturn.
Long-term bonds which are more sensitive to interest rates than short term ones, will decline in price at a faster rate, resulting in long-term and short-term yield differential to increase and cause the yield curve to steepen
Week 40 equity strategy: Once again we go through the drama of a US government shutdown. The threat has been averted for 45 days. Every year the government must approve the discretionary spending (or appropriation bill) for the upcoming fiscal year from October.
It affects around 25% of the government's total spending. There have been 20 shutdowns since 1977. The longest was 34 days in late December 2018. According to the CBO, the impact of that shutdown was 0.02% points in real GDP. Thus, the impact on the equity market is minimal.
Shifting focus, we have more confidence the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates. Core PCE inflation continues to trend downwards. August was the lowest monthly increase in more than three years.
At the current pace, inflation could hit the Fed's target by mid-2024. Fed Vice-Chair John Williams said that rates are at, or near, the peak but need to be restrictive for some time.
Source: Phillips
With the yield curve steepening lately where the 10-Year treasury yield is rising faster than the 2-Year treasury yield, the yield curve is approaching its closest to uninversion since the banking crisis took place in March.
This report looks at the consequence on S&P 500’s performance when the yield curve uninverts and steepens thereafter
Looking at the 3 instances in 1990, 2001, 2007 (excluding 2019 due to unprecedented US$2.2 trillion stimulus following the COVID-19 crisis) when the yield spread steepened significantly post uninversion, the S&P 500 has declined on average over 7% 6 months and over 9% a year after uninversion takes place, respectively.
In addition, in every instance following uninversion, the US economy went into recession within 2 years, with the median time at 16 months.
A plausible reason why the yield curve can predict recessions is because market participants anticipate the Fed will cut policy rates to provide monetary policy accommodation during a downturn.
Long-term bonds which are more sensitive to interest rates than short term ones, will decline in price at a faster rate, resulting in long-term and short-term yield differential to increase and cause the yield curve to steepen
Week 40 equity strategy: Once again we go through the drama of a US government shutdown. The threat has been averted for 45 days. Every year the government must approve the discretionary spending (or appropriation bill) for the upcoming fiscal year from October.
It affects around 25% of the government's total spending. There have been 20 shutdowns since 1977. The longest was 34 days in late December 2018. According to the CBO, the impact of that shutdown was 0.02% points in real GDP. Thus, the impact on the equity market is minimal.
Shifting focus, we have more confidence the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates. Core PCE inflation continues to trend downwards. August was the lowest monthly increase in more than three years.
At the current pace, inflation could hit the Fed's target by mid-2024. Fed Vice-Chair John Williams said that rates are at, or near, the peak but need to be restrictive for some time.
Source: Phillips
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by winston » Mon Oct 02, 2023 9:43 pm
HIGHS AND LOWS
NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Roivant Sciences (ROIV)... biopharmaceuticals
Erie Indemnity (ERIE)... insurance
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)... cookware and decor
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)... apparel
Watsco (WSO)... HVAC equipment
Ryder System (R)... logistics
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
CONSOL Energy (CEIX)... coal
Arch Resources (ARCH)... coal
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
PayPal (PYPL)... mobile payments
Block (SQ)... cashless payments
Pfizer (PFE)... pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)... pharmaceuticals
Disney (DIS)... streaming and entertainment
Hershey (HSY)... "Global Elite" chocolatier
British American Tobacco (BTI)... tobacco
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Target (TGT)... big-box retailer
Dollar General (DG)... discount retailer
American Tower (AMT)... communications REIT
NextEra Energy (NEE)... utilities
Source: Daily Wealth
NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Roivant Sciences (ROIV)... biopharmaceuticals
Erie Indemnity (ERIE)... insurance
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)... cookware and decor
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)... apparel
Watsco (WSO)... HVAC equipment
Ryder System (R)... logistics
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)... oil and gas
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
CONSOL Energy (CEIX)... coal
Arch Resources (ARCH)... coal
NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
PayPal (PYPL)... mobile payments
Block (SQ)... cashless payments
Pfizer (PFE)... pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)... pharmaceuticals
Disney (DIS)... streaming and entertainment
Hershey (HSY)... "Global Elite" chocolatier
British American Tobacco (BTI)... tobacco
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Target (TGT)... big-box retailer
Dollar General (DG)... discount retailer
American Tower (AMT)... communications REIT
NextEra Energy (NEE)... utilities
Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 112616
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:31 pm
RUSSELL 2000 TURNS NEGATIVE FOR 2023 AS SMALL CAPS STRUGGLE
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 0676845723
S&P 500 equal weight index just went negative for 2023
https://twitter.com/David_Dierking/stat ... 5012692419
Dow Jones Industrial Average now negative for the year
https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status ... 8901686526
I wouldn’t trust these jaws to remain as open as they are now.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/sta ... 2491131205
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 0676845723
S&P 500 equal weight index just went negative for 2023
https://twitter.com/David_Dierking/stat ... 5012692419
Dow Jones Industrial Average now negative for the year
https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status ... 8901686526
I wouldn’t trust these jaws to remain as open as they are now.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/sta ... 2491131205
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Thu Oct 05, 2023 6:27 pm
An update of these charts as markets are on the move this week.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 6818577591
The Russell Micro Cap Index, comprising 1524 stocks, right now is making new 52-week lows, even as the S&P 500 Index is some 18% above its 52-week lows.
https://twitter.com/CarterBWorth/status ... 8690197505
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 6818577591
The Russell Micro Cap Index, comprising 1524 stocks, right now is making new 52-week lows, even as the S&P 500 Index is some 18% above its 52-week lows.
https://twitter.com/CarterBWorth/status ... 8690197505
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:41 am
Will $NDX catch down to $XBI? They once enjoyed a reasonably strong correlation
Then rates hit 3% and biotech fell apart, with many trying to call the bottom on the way down
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 2389374014
Then rates hit 3% and biotech fell apart, with many trying to call the bottom on the way down
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 2389374014
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Re: US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 24)
by behappyalways » Sat Oct 14, 2023 2:26 pm
Nasdaq breadth hits new all time low.
We have never seen divergence like this
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 6055042082
Big vs. small caps
Watch for times when the generals lead but the soldiers don’t follow.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/17 ... 9930283106
Visualizing The R&D Investment Of The 10 Biggest Nasdaq Companies
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 1319100450
We have never seen divergence like this
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 6055042082
Big vs. small caps
Watch for times when the generals lead but the soldiers don’t follow.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/17 ... 9930283106
Visualizing The R&D Investment Of The 10 Biggest Nasdaq Companies
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/17 ... 1319100450
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
- behappyalways
- Millionaire Boss
- Posts: 42143
- Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests