China - Housing 06 (Nov 21 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Traders Brace For China's Property Slump To Drag For Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trade ... drag-years

[winston]

Property market could take year to recover

Sales in China's largest cities could return to growth in the next four to six months but in smaller cities "it will take anything to between six months and one year for a good recovery".

About 100 billion yuan (HK$107 billion) will be needed to cushion developers through the current downturn.

It was possible the PBOC will cut interest rates once more before the end of 2023 but he does not expect "numerous or major cuts," partly because banks' profit margins are relatively low.

Expects more detailed plans for the resolution of local government debt to be released soon, which is "much more important than cutting the interest rate."

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... to-recover

[behappyalways]

Mainland China lowers "first home mortgage" interest rate from 4.655% to 4.2%

中國大陸降「首套房貸」利率 4.655%降至4.2%｜TVBS新聞

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O8OE6N3KNUg

[behappyalways]

China's real estate landmines are exploding continuously!
Residents of unfinished buildings are living a hard life and overcoming difficulties to protect their rights.
"Zhongjun Group" defaulted on more than 58.1 billion yuan, which may have an impact on the Chinese economy

中國房地產地雷連環爆! 爛尾樓居民日子苦 為維權克難度日 "中駿集團"違約逾581億 恐衝擊中國經濟│記者 葉俐緯│【國際大現場】20231005│三立新聞台

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YHb5kIBXPoA

[behappyalways]

China Evergrande’s US dollar debt has been cut in half!
The total number of defaulted debts has exceeded 1.2 trillion.
China’s positive policies cannot save the housing market...
China’s “Silver Ten” transaction volume continues to fall

中國恒大美元債腰斬!違約債務累計破1.2兆 陸政策利多也難救房市...中國"銀十"成交續跌｜非凡財經新聞｜20231008

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7PxKNHAMSVk

[behappyalways]

All are trying to save the housing market!
Mainland China promotes the transformation of "villages in the city" to strictly prevent capital from escaping through offshore operations
都更救房市! 陸力推「城中村」改造 嚴防資本藉離岸操作外逃｜秦綾謙｜FOCUS全球新聞 20231013@tvbsfocus
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GwCe1qH-XEo


Evergrande owes RMB 3.4 billion? A run broke out at Hebei Cangzhou Bank, and a "cash wall" was urgently put up to clear it.
遭恒大欠款34億人民幣?河北滄州銀行爆發擠兌潮 緊急擺出"現金牆"自清｜非凡財經新聞｜20231013
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KSpNSRtd1u8

[behappyalways]

A cold wind is blowing in China's real estate market!
The real estate and cement industries will lay off 400,000 people.
The collapse of the housing market has triggered another wave of unemployment.
The real estate industry has laid off nearly 200,000 people.

中國房地產市場吹寒風! 地產.水泥業將裁40萬人 房市崩塌再掀失業潮 房產業已裁近20萬人｜記者 葉俐緯｜【國際大現場】20231016｜三立新聞台

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jU6511nRY6U

[behappyalways]

"More than half of the biggest 50 developers have now gone into default, having defaulted on around $115bn of $175bn in outstanding offshore dollar bonds since 2021. A bigger pile of onshore bank loans also faces restructuring or rollovers."
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/stat ... 1145106933

[behappyalways]

Will China’s Real Estate Crisis Hit The Global Economy?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=27x8s4jVqNI


property developers created their own tradable credit, known as trade acceptance bills. These are corporate IOUs that are often accepted directly by suppliers as a form of payment & can then be traded
https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook/stat ... 7223428175


"The value of new home sales among the 100 biggest real estate companies fell 27.5% y/y to $55.6 billion, narrowing from a 29.2% decline in September, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information. Sales gained 0.6% on month."
https://twitter.com/shehzadhqazi/status ... 3619466331

[winston]

Morningstar Expects CN Home Prices to Stabilise by End-Yr; Sector Top Picks CHINA OVERSEAS, CR LAND

Significant relaxation of property market policies in first- and second-tier mainland cities following the July CCP Politburo meeting as a positive factor but demand for housing remained subdued in most areas as it takes time for homebuyer sentiment to recover.

The broker believed that property prices should gradually stabilise by the end of this year. However, short-term unfavourable factors are likely to persist amid oversupply.

Looking ahead, Morningstar expected further relaxation of purchase restrictions and lowering of down payment ratios in first-tier cities to restore confidence in home buying, as well as supportive measures for the completion of stalled projects.

The broker believed that in the absence of regulatory impetus or support from financial institutions, the restructuring of struggling mainland property developers would face considerable uncertainty.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN