China - Housing 06 (Nov 21 - Dec 26)

[winston]

JPM Expects CN Homebuilders to Underperform on Soft Sales, Weak Home Prices, Potential Default Risks

JPMorgan noted in a research report that the Chinese housing sector is likely to continue to underperform the broader market due to sluggish sales, weak property prices and the risk of default by some real estate companies, until there is a major change in the nation's easing policy or the government's attitude.

The broker said there is no official data on the progress of reviving uncompleted projects and ensuring home delivery in China, but PBOC has deployed about RMB400 billion of rescue funds through pledged supplementary lending (PSL).

Related News: EVERGRANDE 2022 Interim Loss at RMB 66.35B

Surveys meanwhile showed that about 34% of uncompleted projects have been delivered, while completions in the first half of this year grew 19% YoY, outperforming most other real estate indicators.

JPM believed that ensuring home delivery will remain the core policy objective of the mainland real estate sector in the near term, and troubled developers will therefore have more assets to dispose of to asset management companies.

The Chinese government may also provide selective financing support to non-troubled private developers to help recover capital for construction.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

Losing NT$2.5 trillion in two years! Evergrande’s debt black hole finally exposed; Wanda also rumored the risk of default

兩年虧2.5兆台幣! 恒大債務黑洞終曝光 萬達也傳違約風險｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞

20230719@tvbsfocus
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TUIJusMhbJk

[behappyalways]

China's real estate market is also destroying the economy?

Evergrande Group lost 3.4 trillion yuan in 2 years...

Q2 real estate has shrunk again and more than 10 real estate companies have fallen into the crisis of "delisting for 1 yuan"

中國打房也把經濟給打趴? 恒大集團2年虧掉3.4兆...Q2房地產又陷萎縮 逾10家房企陷"1元退市"危機｜非凡財經新聞｜20230719

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=au9MmN2Rc8Y&t=4s

[winston]

Citi: Politburo Meeting's Pledge to Optimize Property Policies Timely Opens Door for Further Easing

The CPC top leadership held the mid-year Politburo meeting yesterday, during which it analyzed the current economic situation and set the policy tone for the second half of this year, Citigroup remarked in a report.

The Chinese government frankly acknowledged the emerging difficulties in economic development but remained patient in policy response.

The broker highlighted that the most prominent move from the government was the pledge to adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, which should open the door for further property easing.

Citigroup believed that the signals on property policy tweaks and hint at local debt issue could be well-received by the market. However, such "non-bazooka" stimulus measures could still miss or even fall behind market expectations.

At the moment, the magnitude and duration of policy support for the real estate industry remains unclear, added the broker, which opted to keep its 2023E GDP YoY growth for China unchanged at 5%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

The Politburo: Preventing a Property Market Spiral

This week, the Chinese Communist Party’s top decision-making body signaled its strongest inclination yet of a more accommodative stance towards the property sector.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/331142.pdf

[winston]

Property And Property Management

Expecting Policy Action After PBOC Meeting; Downgrade CGS To HOLD

According to CREIS data, the top 100 developers’ aggregate contracted sales have
dropped 4.6% yoy ytd, with continued divergence among POEs and SOEs.

For 50 cities, average weekly new home sales decreased by 28.1% yoy.

For the 10 core cities, average weekly sales of second-hand homes decreased by 24.9% yoy.

PBOC is echoing Xi’s call to relax demand-side policy – we can expect real action to be taken soon.

CR Land and COPH are our top picks. Downgrade CGS to HOLD due to lower visibility.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e804a4adfb

[winston]

China cabinet calls for roll out of property policies

Cities should roll out measures that meet their own needs.

Chinese authorities have stepped up efforts to stabilise the property market, which, along with related industries, accounts for about 20% of the economy.

China’s home sales tumbled 33.1% in July, the most in a year, as the property crisis continued to weigh on the economy.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... y-policies

[behappyalways]

The mainland deploys the economy in the second half of the year and no longer emphasizes "housing, housing, not speculation"

大陸部署下半年經濟 不再強調「房住不炒」｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞 20230802@tvbsfocus

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TMxnDwns6yA

[behappyalways]

Attic room in China with tiny ‘shooting hole’ window rented for US$140 a month
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZptC1CTwCeU

[winston]

No takers for 'buy one, take one' at half-built project

A "buy one floor, get one free" promotion at a half-built housing project in a small Chinese city has failed to attract any buyers amid a depressed property market, according to the Nikkei Asia.

Though offer was attractive, the price tag of 1.45 million yuan (HK$1.58 million) was still too high for most people in the lower-tier city of Tongling in Anhui province, where the average income is between 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per month, the Nikkei quoted a resident as saying.

It will take more than 13 years to absorb the existing housing supply in Tongling, the report, cited an estimate by an analyst at Minsheng Securities.

Earlier, Country Garden (2007), which was China's biggest developer last year but with a large exposure in lower-tier cities, posted a 60 percent year-on-year decline in sales last month to 12.07 billion yuan.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... lt-project