US - Market Strategy 02 (Feb 22 - Dec 23)

[winston]

Morgan Stanley Sees Shock 16% US Profit Drop Killing Stock Rally

by Richard Henderson

MS is bullish on equities in Japan, Taiwan & South Korea and recommends an overweight position in developed-market government bonds, including long-dated Treasuries, and the dollar.

Earnings per share for the S&P 500 are set to drop 16% this year. That’s one of the most bearish predictions among those tracked by Bloomberg, and contrasts with bullish forecasts from the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which anticipates mild growth.

Other recommendations from the bank’s strategists include defensive stocks, developed-market investment-grade bonds, and for yield-hungry investors a preference for additional tier-one securities — a type of subordinated bank debt — over high-yield bonds.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-s ... 32650.html

[winston]

‘Magnificent 7’ Lead Market Rally, but for How Long?

By Michele Schneider

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) have now been penned as the “Magnificent 7.”

Only around 25% of the S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the benchmark, while these stocks continue to show massive leadership.

The Nasdaq is up around 15% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P.

Smaller cap stocks have struggled way more.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/magn ... s_headline

[behappyalways]

The five largest US stocks account for a record 21% of total market cap, the same level reached at the peak of the 2021 bubble

They also trade at 38 times earnings, versus a long-term average of 21.5

Either we have a massive stock bubble, or a massive antirtrust problem

https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard/stat ... 0388183040

[behappyalways]

Can Nvidia And The AI Boom Save The U.S. Stock Market And Economy?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XqqR64lgl0Y

[behappyalways]

Bullish Sentiment Rises As FOMO Kicks In
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bulli ... fomo-kicks


TSLA up a record 13 sessions in a row (up ~40%)
IBM up 20 of 22 sessions,
ROKU up 12 days in a row (up ~37%)
DOCN up 12 of 13 days (up ~35%)
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/16 ... 5647838208

[behappyalways]

Huang Yiting talked about "stop watching after the skyrocketing AI, what to watch for US stocks in July?"

'23.06.29【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「AI瘋漲後停看聽 七月美股看什麼？」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dZYnZrofQ0Q

[behappyalways]

Equity risk premium remains at the lowest levels in over two decades
Opportunities in fixed income appear more attractive
https://twitter.com/goddsntplaydice/sta ... 1954062338


Nikkei 225 (black) vs NASDAQ 100 (purple): almost as if they're the same
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 5642722306

[behappyalways]

The top 2 stocks in the S&P 500 (Apple & Microsoft) now represent a combined 14.4% of the index, the highest weighting for any two companies with data going back to 1980.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 2498844673

[behappyalways]

S&P 500 first half of 2023 heatmap
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 9382025218

[winston]

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) Needs one more push or begins to look a bit toppy based on lethargic momentum

Russell 2000 (IWM) 190-193 still the overhead resistance to clear

Dow (DIA) 33,500 major support to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) Still working off a reversal top until it takes out 372.85

Regional banks (KRE) Need a new move over 42

Semiconductors (SMH) 150 support

Transportation (IYT) 250 resistance and a potential correction /mean reversion in store

Biotechnology (IBB) 121-135 range

Retail (XRT) 63 support

Source: investing.com