Investment Strategies 04 (Apr 19 - Nov 23)

[behappyalways]

Watch the Fed's performance in the middle of the month

23.06.01【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「短線風和日麗 月中看聯準會表演」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_f2v-WZGOZM

[winston]

How To Adjust Your Strategy To Profit In Good and Bad Stock Markets

If you're not making money in stocks, your strategy may need an adjustment.

by TODD CAMPBELL

No strategy works perfectly in every market.
Abanding your strategy and jumping from strategy to strategy can be dangerous.
Adjusting your time frame, sector allocation, and trading tactics is a better option.

The average investor builds wealth over time by dollar-cost averaging into a major index fund.

Source: The Street

https://smarts.thestreet.com/all-smarts ... m_content=

[winston]

This Investing Strategy Could Silently Make Motivated Investors Wealthy

By Chris Vermeulen

Why hold onto an asset that is tanking in value, taking all your recent gains with it?

Lightning Bolt #1 – Buy & Hold Investing Is Dangerous
Lightning Bolt #2 – Market Trends and Cycles
Finally, A Name To A Face – Asset Revesting

Asset Revesting:
- Exclusively holds assets rising in value.
- Sells assets that are decreasing in value.
- Sets risk management rules to protect capital.
- Deploys position management to limit losses and lock in profits.
- Will hold cash as a position when all other assets are falling

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/this ... s_headline

[behappyalways]

Market Recap - Debt Ceiling deal done
Macro - Update on the OPEC+ Meeting
Earnings - Upward revisions for next Quarter
The Week Ahead - Economic & Earnings Calendar
Closing Thoughts - Discipline

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/the-weeken ... n-90?sd=pf

[winston]

This Top-Notch Stock is a Great Bargain Right Now

by Adam Galas

Warning Sign #1: The Government Is Trying to “Redefine” a Recession
Warning Sign #2: Potentially Soaring Job Losses
Warning Sign #3: The Worst Productivity Collapse in History
Warning Sign #4: Falling National Income

Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ). This ETF holds the 100 biggest cash cow companies in America, companies that make lots of free cash. And this cash can be used to pay dividends to investors.

Source: Wide Moat Research

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/06/11/ ... right-now/

[winston]

Stock market: Where to invest in a slowing economy

by Ines Ferré

“Rates will be lower a year from now, and even lower two years from now than they are today. While they're not going back to zero, they could go from 5.25% to 3% or even 2.5% over that period of time”.

1. Moving cash into intermediate term securities.
“You want to move from a today interest rate to let's say a 5-year interest rate, because you get two benefits from that. You get to capture the higher rate of interest for that whole 5 years. And if rates do go down, those bonds actually would appreciate in value".

2. Buy smaller or medium sized companies, whose stock performance is 30% below the larger ones.

3. Non-US Equities: We expect some emerging markets, including China and Brazil, to ease monetary policy in the coming year. Given the backdrop of US rate cuts in the coming year, this should provide a boost to local markets and economies.

4. AI: Investors may want to consider companies which become more efficient through the implementation of Artificial Intelligence.

5. Biotech

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 50092.html

[behappyalways]

Huang Yiting talks about "Interpretation of the latest interest rate decision of the FED—Skip or Pause"

23.06.15【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「解讀FED最新利率決策—Skip or Pause」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zO3_2T2HFkg

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

Last Thursday brought us the largest S&P 500 call buying in history!

We’ve seen lots of short covering recently, according to Goldman Sachs. The largest amount since late 2022.

The largest seven stocks make up a whopping 28.2% of the S&P 500's weighting, this is the highest level since the peak of post-COVID crash bull run at 28.9% in late 2021.

Apple is now worth more than the entire Russell 2000 combined.

The S&P 500 is now higher than just before the Fed first started hiking on March 16th, 2022!

There’s a widening gap between the performance of the S&P 500 and the total assets of major central banks (Fed, ECB, and BoJ). This may suggest that risk assets are becoming a bit frothy.

Retail is the most bullish since November of 2021, per AAII.

Retail recently bought the most stock exposure since the second half of 2021, according to BofA.

The growing divergence between QQQ (the NASDAQ 100 ETF) and TLT (the iShares 20+ year Treasury ETF) is the largest I’ve seen in the last two years. It continues to suggest that there is potentially some room for equities to catch down, particularly with risk premiums at the lowest levels in over two decades.

The Shiller PE ratio is presently at a whopping 30.19! The max is 44.19, from the Dot Com Bubble's height The mean is 17.03.

Morgan Stanley expects the current earnings recession to bottom around -16% in the second half of 2023.

One reason the Fed can't continue to hike too aggressively is that unrealized losses at FDIC-insured banks are around $500B during Q1 2023.

There are 165.3 million credit card accounts in the United States, with an average debt of $5,733 per borrower. That's a total of $917 billion! Credit card rates over the last three months have averaged 20.09%, which is a significant rise from pre-COVID levels of about 15%.

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/charts-of- ... tter&sd=pf

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

The $1.4T commercial real estate debt maturity wall is likely to become an issue in the back half of 2023 and through 2024. Banks own half of this debt, and regional banks own 75% of the bank's share of it.

AI-related stocks account for most of the gains in the S&P 500 year-to-date.

QQQ vs TLT: Jaws remain wide open

Will tech stocks grow into these lofty multiples or will we see a re-rating of risk?

The largest seven stocks make up a whopping 28.2% of the S&P 500's weighting.

For the first time ever the yield on cash, bonds and equities is the same” “If you are a US investor you should probably buy bonds because in risk-adjusted terms they give you more.”

The Leading Economic Index is flashing red for the 14th month in a row
It's being weighed down by:
- Manufacturing
- Consumer expectations
- Average Weekly Hours
- The Yield Curve (based on 10s - FFR)

Banks are lending less, and in a debt-driven economy that could slow down growth.

Taiwan's exports have been falling for 9 months
A warning sign for global growth. The country's top two exports are:
1) Electrical machinery, equipment: US$245.8 billion (51.4% of total exports)
2) Machinery including computers: $62.9 billion (13.2%)

Money market fund assets are nearing an all-time high

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/charts-of- ... tter&sd=pf

[behappyalways]

Charts of the Week

The divergence between QQQ and TLT is the largest that it’s been in a long time.

We do see liquidity from central banks beginning to roll off, and that correlation with markets suggests that it may be a headwind moving forward.

Treasury bills and AAA corporate debt both could be attractive here.

Volatility may be set to rise in the years ahead, as a peak in rates tends to have a two-year lag with the VIX.

Hedge fund gross leverage is at a historic extreme at 258%, a five-year high.

Regional banks are a favorite short of hedge funds.

China’s stock market is looking increasingly precarious as the primary pillars of its economy, real estate and construction, are not growing.

Other signs of weakness within China, tourism has been subdued. This suggests that consumers in China don’t have the same pent up demand for travel that the US experienced.

High net worth individuals had significantly higher than normal cash allocations going into 2023.

In the Euro Area there has been a significant contraction in money supply, suggesting that industrial production may follow lower.

There has also been signs of weakness in Asia, providing ammunition for depreciating currencies. But also providing evidence that the global economy is slowing further.

Bank reserves are likely set to decline by a total of approximately $500B with the level of Treasury issuance we are seeing post-debt ceiling resolution

Young borrowers are taking on more debt and the 20-30 age range is experiencing delinquency rate that we haven’t seen since the Great Financial Crisis.

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/charts-of- ... tter&sd=pf