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by winston » Fri Jan 20, 2023 10:07 am
Step 1: Forget “Buy and Hope” Investing
Step 2: Ditch 60/40, Too
Step 3: Create a “No Withdrawal” Portfolio
Step 4: Supersize Those Yields
Step 5: Protect That Principal!
by winston » Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:16 am
Equities: healthcare, life sciences and technology, as well as plays on the energy transition
by behappyalways » Thu Feb 02, 2023 1:52 pm
by behappyalways » Thu Feb 09, 2023 7:54 pm
by winston » Sat Feb 11, 2023 8:22 pm
The bears believe we won’t see inflation down anywhere near the Fed’s 2% target and they’ll keep raising rates to some terminal rate (which now looks to be higher than the previously ordained 5.1% level because the labor market is just so darned strong), and the economy will fall into some kind of recession, company margins will come down, and earnings will start declining.
The bulls believe the Fed will hike once more in March, then pause, and if the economy starts to slip into a recession while inflation (which they see trending downwards) continues to retreat, the Fed will actually pivot and start cutting rates in the back half of 2023. So, they’re frontrunning the turnaround in rates they see as almost inevitable.
The only thing that matters, besides trying to catch the momentum train higher, is always using trailing stops to protect your gains on the way up, because as the Wall Street saying goes, stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.
But you can have it both ways. As I said, this is an “everything rally,” so buying indexed ETFs like Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is the best way to ride upward momentum. Make sure you keep raising your trailing stops on the way up.
by behappyalways » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:31 pm
by behappyalways » Thu Feb 23, 2023 5:51 pm
by behappyalways » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:59 pm
by winston » Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:29 pm
Last year’s winners rarely keep winning.
Last year’s three worst performers are the top three best performers this year. And the top four from last year now make up the bottom four. It’s practically a complete reversal from top to bottom.
These examples highlight the dangers of blindly assuming – without any data – that the trend will continue. It might happen… But then again, it might not. The message is clear: You can’t afford to get complacent as an investor.
You can and should stick with trends. But when the trend changes course, you need to pivot too…
That means you’re never stuck holding and hoping. You’re never married to a trade. And that’s how you can consistently produce outsized gains.
by winston » Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:00 pm
"Prepare, don't predict."
1. Hold the stocks of great businesses.
2. Sell unprofitable, cash-burning tech stocks and other trashy speculations.
3. Hold plenty of cash.
4. Hold gold and silver.
We don't need to be victims in this sideways market.
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