Investment Strategies 04 (Apr 19 - Nov 23)

[behappyalways]

Here are 3 reasons it isn't time to buy the dip in stocks yet and what needs to happen for the market to turn positive, according to BlackRock

1. "Margin pressures are a risk to earnings."
2. "The Fed will lift rates too high."
3. "Valuations aren't much cheaper given rising interest rates."

"We think the Fed will quickly raise rates and then hold off to see the impact," BlackRock said, adding: "We think central banks will eventually make a dovish pivot to save growth or avoid a deep recession. This is why we are overweight equities in the long run but neutral on a tactical horizon," BlackRock said.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ine-2022-6

[behappyalways]

For last ~70 years, when CPI has been above 3% the trailing PE has averaged 15x & above 5% has averaged 12x. Today it is 19x. From the 1972 peak to 1974 trough, the trailing PE went from 20x to 7x as CPI rose from 2.3% to 12.7% w/ the S&P losing 48% from peak to trough.

Not to forget there might be a downward adjustment of earnings which will make PE higher

[behappyalways]

What happens when the Thanos of Macro snaps his fingers?
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/endgame#details

[behappyalways]

"HODL" Finds Its Inevitable Flaw

by Tyler Durden

The term “HODL” originated from user GameKyubbi, who posted a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills.

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hodl- ... table-flaw

[behappyalways]

A good watch

22.06.30【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「急跌段或過去 說落底還太早」
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EMKhDaWVK-g

[behappyalways]

Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Market | Victoria Greene
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oAeyiQJgAYg

[behappyalways]

So, Recession?
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... on#details

[behappyalways]

22.07.14【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「CPI開獎後 財報季緊接而來 美股震盪難免」
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5yWe7xvjGQ0

[behappyalways]

Nothing Else (Except Macro) Matters

The picture couldn’t be any clearer:
1. Inflation (lagging indicator) showing the most acceleration on the upside;
2. The labor market (coincident/slightly lagging) holding on okay-sh for now;
3. The NFIB survey (leading indicator) flashing red.

Source: The Macro Compass

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... rs#details

[behappyalways]

This is one person I follow on twitter....

Exploring the Depths of the Downturn with Dan Niles

https://www.investopedia.com/the-expres ... 95-5667317