Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Jun 23)

[behappyalways]

The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation, former Fed president Bill Dudley says
https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.bu ... 22-4%3famp

[behappyalways]

Inflation Threat "Starts With The Fed" - President Biden Comments On Hotter Than Expected CPI
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cpi ... -year-high

The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation, former Fed president Bill Dudley says
https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.bu ... 22-4%3famp

[behappyalways]

I kinda agree with Mohammed A. El-Erian that we are at the START of a new phase of selling as we start to focus on deteriorating earnings(Walmart, Target...). Price have come down so PE is down but we have not adjusted the earnings yet. So if earnings are going to be much lower then the current PE might be still very high ...Banks will not do well even if interest rates are going up because there will be more writedowns coming. Company loan defaults, bond losses and etc...This phase we probably will see faster downside. We probably will see the main characters coming out...The main characters are Mr Circuit Breaker A, Ms Circuit Breaker B......like what you see in 2020. The market is still in its buy the dip mood with many people still doing its dollar cost averaging....I am surprised that there are inflows into Cathie Wood's Ark fund. That tells you there is more to go....

Wake me up when Mr Circuit Breaker appears......

全球經濟會不會衰退？陳鳳馨示警「明年比今年更慘」【Yahoo TV#風向龍鳳配】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rjgmxnh4Jqo

[behappyalways]

Tchir: Crypto Versus The Fed?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tchir ... versus-fed

[behappyalways]

Bear Stearns: A Lesson In Bear Market Bounces
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear- ... et-bounces

[winston]

3 fresh signs a treacherous stock market lurks

by Brian Sozzi

1. Whales Whining
2. Big Tech Warnings
3. A key bond market player warns

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-fresh- ... 17388.html

[winston]

Five Recession Risk Factors To Watch

by BLU PUTNAM

1. The Federal Reserve and Higher Interest Rates
2. There was Massive Fiscal Stimulus During the Pandemic, Financed by the Fed Buying Bonds
3. Rising Input and Wage Costs
4. High Oil Prices
5. China Is Decelerating Sharply

Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fiv ... To%2BWatch

[behappyalways]

The Market Is "On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/marke ... e-collapse

[behappyalways]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF

US 10 year treasury should be around 1.5% to 2% above Fed's benchmark rates.

According to the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations, the Fed’s benchmark rate will end the year at 3.4%, an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from the March estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/fed-hike...-1994.html

If the Fed expects 3.4% by year end, then likely that 10 year treasury will probably hit 5%.

If the 10 year treasury bond rate is used as risk free rate, imagine the valuation of risk assets if it really hits 5%. Plus lower earnings due to recession, it would be a double whammy when you do valuation.

The next Fed meeting will be 45 days later and it is expected to raise rates by 0.5% to 0.75%. That meant that the 10 year treasury rate will probably rise to 4% by end July...

With no share buyback due to earnings announcements and probably earnings downgrade, things do not look good.

The sovereign bonds are probably going to get squeeze further with US increasing interest rate. Another good reason for me to like gold.

Anyone wants to buy the dip???
..........
The funny thing about the phrase "fortune favors the brave" is that the Roman author Pliny the Elder famously said this just before setting sail toward Mt. Vesuvius mid-eruption, and then immediately died

[behappyalways]

Bond Meltdown's Next Driver Is BOJ Policy Implosion
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond- ... -implosion