Uranium (Nuclear Energy)

[winston]

Uranium market brightens as output cutbacks tighten supplies

By Myra P. Saefong

Sept 8, 2018 10:37

Ux Consulting: weekly spot uranium prices up nearly 12% YTD

A temporary suspension of uranium production at Cameco Corp.’s McArthur River mine in Canada, the world’s biggest, that began in February has since been extended for an “indeterminate duration.”

That follows a late 2017 announcement that Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom would cut uranium output by 20% over three years. Kazakhstan is the world’s top producing country.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/urani ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

Is Uranium On The Way Back?

Uranium is on something of a high at the moment, having risen by 30 percent, to $27.40 per pound, since April.

Kazatomprom has been increasing production by 15.4 percent annually, ensuring its global preeminence in the sector.

Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uranium- ... 00659.html

[winston]

Uranium Markets Are Drawing New Interest

Global uranium output decreased in 2018, but growing demand from Asia is sending prices higher.

In November 2018, there were 54 nuclear reactors under construction across the globe, 25 percent of which are in China.

China also plans for a further 43 reactors and is considering adding another 136 in the future.

Source: CME Group

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/commo ... t-14800637

[winston]

China could be a big winner if Donald Trump restricts US uranium imports, experts say

The United States is considering a 25 per cent domestic production quota for national security reasons, sending 6.5 million kilogram back to the global market

This would benefits China’s rapidly growing nuclear power industry, according to energy experts

Currently both the US and China import more than 90 per cent of the uranium they consume.

The Department of Commerce has been investigating whether uranium imports constitute a national security risk and is expected to make a recommendation on April 14, Politico reported this week. Trump then has 90 days to decide whether to enforce tariffs, based on the recommendation.

Data from the US government body, the Energy Information Administration, shows that the US uranium imports from Namibia fell from a high of 9.9 per cent in 2013 to 3.9 per cent in 2016.

The World Nuclear Association estimates that China’s uranium demand in 2020 is expected to be over 11,000 tonnes of uranium (tU), rising to 18,500 tU in 2025 and 24,000 tU in 2030.

China now has 46 nuclear power reactors in operation and 11 more under construction.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... us-uranium

[winston]

not vested

Uranium - Higher; US$25.70 from US$24.80 from US$24.70;
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb; Long-Term Contract - 2x Spot
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global Supply: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 190m lbs pa to 300m lbs pa (2030)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 3m lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 9
g. No. of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 452
h. 56 new reactors being built; 481 planned;
i. China: 46 existing plants; Building 11; To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 75% long-term contracts expiring between 2017-25
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Apr 14, 2019: US requires 25% local production; Higher electricity cost
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. US: Nuclear - 20% of electricity; 99/447 Plants; 25% drop by 2025; Two Year Moratorium on Closure
r. Supply: 50k tons; Demand: 68k tons; 2k tons enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs around 650,000 pounds to runfor a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% uranium; Demand 50m lbs pa
v. Uranium from Sea Water; Viable at US$180/kg (US$80/lbs); Timing?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco mothballed McArthur River & Key Lake; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 yrs
z. Russia banning export of Uranium?

[winston]

Uranium Surges 31% Amid Shutdowns to Become Year’s Top Commodity

by Aoyon Ashraf and Joe Deaux

The radioactive metal used in nuclear fuel has climbed 31% this year, making it the world’s best-performing major commodity.

The gains have been spurred by mine shutdowns that have wiped out more than a third of annual global output at a time when demand from power plants has remained relatively stable.

Coal- and gas-powered plants are easier to turn on and off than nuclear facilities, so it’s worth keeping them running even if electricity demand declines somewhat.

Two industry giants, Kazatomprom and Cameco Corp., have been curtailing uranium production in the past three years to reduce the global glut.

Kazatomprom, the largest uranium producer, announced earlier in April it was reducing operational activities at its uranium mines in Kazakhstan for about three months.

Cameco further decreased its own output last month by halting production at Cigar Lake in Canada, the world’s largest producing mine -- then extended the suspension for an “indeterminate” period on April 13. The company also shut some operations at its Port Hope fuel-service facility for four weeks.

All told, the shutdowns wiped out about 46 million pounds, or about 35%, of annual global uranium output, over three weeks.

Uranium futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange have soared about 36% since mid-March to $32.50 a pound.

Equities and exchange-traded funds have followed the rally. Among the gainers, Cameco, Uranium Participation Corp., North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF and Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF have all risen at least 50% from their March lows.

Utilities typically hold 1.5 to 5 years of inventory as a hedge against logistical hiccups to keep power flowing. More recently nuclear utilities, the biggest customers, have been able to top off their needs through excess inventories built up around the world.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-comm ... 53885.html

[investar]

When will uranium prices go up again?

https://investingnews.com/daily/resourc ... ces-go-up/

[investar]

Uranium stocks surge: new start of the ESG craze?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/urani ... -esg-craze

[investar]

Hi Winston, where could i find updates on points e, g, q, r, v and z?

Thanks - you are an expert in this

not vested

Uranium - Higher; US$25.70 from US$24.80 from US$24.70;
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb; Long-Term Contract - 2x Spot
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global Supply: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 190m lbs pa to 300m lbs pa (2030)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 3m lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 9
g. No. of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 452
h. 56 new reactors being built; 481 planned;
i. China: 46 existing plants; Building 11; To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 75% long-term contracts expiring between 2017-25
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Apr 14, 2019: US requires 25% local production; Higher electricity cost
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. US: Nuclear - 20% of electricity; 99/447 Plants; 25% drop by 2025; Two Year Moratorium on Closure
r. Supply: 50k tons; Demand: 68k tons; 2k tons enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs around 650,000 pounds to runfor a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% uranium; Demand 50m lbs pa
v. Uranium from Sea Water; Viable at US$180/kg (US$80/lbs); Timing?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco mothballed McArthur River & Key Lake; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 yrs
z. Russia banning export of Uranium?

[winston]

Hi investar,

I was following Cameco and Uranium for a while and got bored with it.

Will update this thread whenever I see anything.

URA has been very strong so it's back on my radar.

Take care,
Winston