Singapore - Housing 18 (Apr 19 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

[UPDATE] Developers get six-month extension for project completion amid construction timeline disruptions
https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/d ... isruptions

[winston]

Singapore Residential Sector – Further correction in home prices

URA released its flash estimates for the private residential property price index (PPI) for 2Q20.

The overall decline came in at 1.1% on a QoQ basis, which is better than our expectations and highlights the resiliency in the market.

The decline in 2Q20 was the second consecutive quarter of negative home price growth, and culminated in an overall residential PPI growth of -2.1% YTD.

We narrow our private residential price growth forecast to a 5-8% decline in 2020 (previously 5-10%). That said, we are still expecting the economic fallout from Covid-19 and rising job security concerns to be felt more tangibly in 2H20.

In light of the soft market conditions, the Singapore government recently tapered down the number of units in the Confirmed List of its 2H20 Government Land Sales Programme.

In terms of valuations, Singapore developers continue to trade at depressed valuations.

Our preferred sector picks are CapitaLand Limited (CAPL SP) [BUY; FV: S$3.99] and City Developments Limited (CIT SP) [BUY; FV: S$12.01].

Source: OCBC

[winston]

Singapore Residential Sector – Pent-up demand filters through

Developers sold 1,031 units, or 998 units if we exclude Executive Condominiums (ECs)s for the month of Jun.

The latter represents a YoY growth of 21.6% and was more than double the 486 units sold in May.

We believe this strong increase reflects pent-up demand in the market, as showflats were closed during the circuit breaker period in Apr and May.

For 2Q20 and 1H20, a total of 1,761 and 3,910 new home sales were recorded, representing YoY declines of 25.1% and 6.6%, respectively.

The top three selling projects in Jun are located in the OCR and we note that median selling prices for these projects were largely resilient.

Despite the strong performance in Jun, we remain cautious on the sales outlook in 2H20.

However, we revise our 2020 private new residential sales projection (ex. ECs) upwards to 6,500-7,500 units.

This still implies a decline of 24-34% as compared to the 9,912 new home sales in 2019.

Our preferred sector picks are CapitaLand Limited (CAPL SP) [BUY; FV: S$3.99] and City Developments Limited (CIT SP) [BUY; FV: S$10.74].

Source: OCBC

[winston]

Crème de la crème: Good class bungalows in Singapore - What potential buyers need to know

For a landed residential property to be classed as a GCB, it must demonstrate the following attributes:
(i) have a land area of at least 1,400 sqm;
(ii) be located in one of the 39 GCB areas gazetted by the URA;
(iii) the land must consist of a minimum plot width of 18.5 m and minimum plot depth of 30 m; and
(iv) the footprint of the bungalow and coverage of all building features must not exceed 40% of the land plot.

Source: Withers Worldwide

https://www.withersworldwide.com/en-gb/ ... ed-to-know

[winston]

Singapore Residential Sector – Another month of healthy private home sales

Developers sold 1,329 private residential units (excluding ECs; 1,385 including ECs) for the month of Sep, representing YoY and MoM growth of 4.6% and 5.8%, respectively.

This was not only the third consecutive month which saw more than 1,000 units being transacted, but was also the highest monthly sales since Jul 2018.

We note that out of the 1,329 private new homes sold, 65% are in the RCR, 29% in the OCR and only 6% in the CCR.

Looking ahead, we do expect to see some moderation given the effects of URA’s new restrictions on the re-issue of Option to Purchase (OTP) by developers which came into effect from 28 Sep 2020.

We are expecting private residential transaction volumes in the primary market (excluding ECs) to come in at 8,000-9,200 units for 2020.

Singapore-listed developers continue to trade at cheap valuations (forward P/B of 0.41x, or 2 standard deviations below the 10-year mean).

Despite the resilient residential markets, given that the major SG developers also have significant exposure to the commercial and hospitality sectors, we believe the market could be waiting for signs of a firmer recovery before turning more bullish.

We reiterate CapitaLand Limited (CAPL SP) and City Developments Limited (CIT SP) as our top sector picks.

Source: OCBC

[behappyalways]

Singapore’s unique ‘collective sales’ lose appeal to investors even as housing market shows signs of early recovery
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3 ... en-housing

[behappyalways]

MCC Land submits $248.9 million bid for mixed-use GLS site in Tanah Merah
https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/m ... anah-merah

[behappyalways]

The Linq @ Beauty World 96% sold on first day of launch
https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/l ... day-launch

[winston]

Singapore Residential Sector – Unsurprising dip in Oct new home sales

URA statistics showed that developers sold 642 private residential units (excluding ECs) for the month of Oct, representing decline of 30.8% YoY and 51.7% MoM.

The lower sales can be attributed to the effects of URA’s new restrictions on the re-issue of Option to Purchase (OTP) by developers which came into effect from 28 Sep 2020, coupled with the fact that there was only one project launched in Oct.

For 10M20, developers have sold 8,021 new private residential units, which is down 4.5% YoY.

This is on track to meet the upper-end of our full-year forecast of 8,000-9,200 units. Positive developments over the Covid-19 vaccine and therapeutics front have undoubtedly boosted investors’ sentiment over the beleaguered real estate sector, given that it has bore the brunt of the debilitating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Although the FTSE ST Real Estate Holdings and Development Index (FSTREH) has seen a share price rebound of 9.1% since the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine news emerged, we opine that valuations remain cheap.

Given the positive sentiment uplift on the potential recovery in the hospitality, retail and office sub-sectors, we stick with CapitaLand Limited (CAPL SP) as our top sector pick.

We also add UOL Group (UOL SP) to our list and move it ahead of City Developments Limited (CIT SP) in our pecking order.

While we continue to be buy-rated on CIT SP, we believe there could be some near-term overhang on its share price until findings from its external financial advisor on its investment in Sincere Property Group is made known by the end of the year.

The path to recovery ahead for developers will remain bumpy, but we believe there is room for developers to finally outperform the broader market as the rotation play to value and cyclicals gathers momentum ahead.

Source: OCBC

[behappyalways]

Demolition work starts at 62-year-old Dakota Crescent housing estate
https://mothership.sg/2020/11/dakota-cr ... emolition/