Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.82; -0.76
VXN: 16.17; -0.62
VXO: 12.23; -1.25

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; +0.01

Bulls and Bears:

After a pause, bulls starting back upside, now near the top of the range for 2019 yet again. Bears falling back again after consolidating for a few months.

Bulls: 53.4 versus 52.0 versus 53.9
Bears: 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.01; -1.01
VXN: 15.63; -1.03
VXO: 11.74; -1.04

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.74; -0.25


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls rose on an up week, bears faded on that week, but the moves were modest.

The big moves are in the bank so to speak after the bulls and bears crossed over in the big year end selloff.

Bulls: 53.9 versus 53.4
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.09; -0.51
VXN: 15.15; -0.71
VXO: 12.04; -0.54

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.07. The ratio is telling you nothing right now.

Indicator level: green (all is well), but rising toward the 60's that would start to represent a threat (a yellow indicator).

Bulls: 54.8 versus 53.9
Bears: 19.2 versus 19.2


Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.73; -0.52
VXN: 15.79; -0.70
VXO: 12.21; -0.62

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; +0.01

Bulls and Bears:

The surprise is that bulls fell instead of rising as the indices continued higher. The bigger surprise is that bears fell a significant amount. Of the two, I would suggest the drop in bears -- very stubborn to fall -- is the bigger news and more an indication of the market turning to the more ebullient side.

At this juncture there are no extremes in this indicator. It did its work in the late 2018 selling with a crossover of the bulls and bears, and when that occurs you expect a recovery. That has been the case. Now with the indices bumping resistance you look for extremes, but bulls are not hitting that 60ish level that has prompted selling/corrections in this long rally from 2009.

Indicator level: green (all is well), but rising toward the 60's that would start to represent a threat (a yellow indicator).

Bulls: 53.4 versus 54.8
Bears: 18.4 versus 19.2

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.87; -1.55
VXN: 15.98; -1.64
VXO: 12.65; -1.51

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.77; -0.16


Bulls and Bears:

Bears continue to fall, and rather precipitously. After stubbornly holding for weeks on end, they are giving up, throwing in the towel. That is not a bullish indication after the initial money is thrown into the market.

Bulls are rising as well but are still below the 60 level that has presaged corrections.

There are still no extremes in this indicator, but with bears breaking lower, if bulls hit 60+ then near term there is an increased chance of a steeper pullback.

It did its work in the late 2018 selling with a crossover of the bulls and bears, and when that occurs you expect a recovery. That has been the case.

Now with the indices bumping resistance you look for extremes, but bulls are not hitting that 60ish level that has prompted selling/corrections in this long rally from 2009.

Indicator level: green toward yellow (all is well), but rising toward the 60's that would start to represent a threat (a yellow indicator).

Bulls: 56.4 versus 53.4
Bears: 17.8 versus 18.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.04; -3.06. Deflated rapidly after the Thursday spike to 23.38 that then reversed intraday. Back below the 200 day SMA and into the lateral range from February.

VXN: 19.10; -2.93
VXO: 18.00; -3.87

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.24; -0.04. Four of five sessions over 1.0 as the extreme sessions are stacking up. The more they do so, the better chance of a rebound IF the other indications line up as well.

Bulls: 55.5 versus 56.4
Bears: 17.8 versus 17.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.04; -3.06. Deflated rapidly after the Thursday spike to 23.38 that then reversed intraday. Back below the 200 day SMA and into the lateral range from February.

VXN: 19.10; -2.93
VXO: 18.00; -3.87

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.24; -0.04. Four of five sessions over 1.0 as the extreme sessions are stacking up. The more they do so, the better chance of a rebound IF the other indications line up as well.

Bulls and Bears:

Bears stopped the decline but did not bounce, holding 17.8 for a second week. Bears finally broke their semi-negativity and dropped the past few weeks. As noted, that was a negative indication for the rally as they had remained more bearish in a relative sense than bulls. The decline suggested a selloff and that occurred, more or less.

Bulls backed off a point after rising steadily. Just as they got within 5 points of that 60% range where the upside moves have stalled, bulls lost their nerve a bit.

At this juncture there are still no extremes. Bulls are close to 60, but not there. Bears have overall been more complacent of late.

It did its work in the late 2018 selling with a crossover of the bulls and bears, and when that occurs you expect a recovery. That has been the case. Now with the indices bumping resistance you look for extremes, but bulls are not hitting that 60ish level that has prompted selling/corrections in this long rally from 2009.

Indicator level: Shading to yellow for this week even as bulls backed off. Not in the 60's, but not much fear from the selling.

Bulls: 55.5 versus 56.4
Bears: 17.8 versus 17.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 15.96; +0.67
VXN: 19.39; +0.99
VXO: 17.03; +0.84

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.07. Eight of nine sessions over 1.0. Lots of negativity by this measure, but the other indicators are not there yet.


Bulls and Bears:

No surprise the bulls faded after trading over the 55 level. Bears faded, however, as the two sides continue to move opposite one another. Bears are falling again and that is not a good indication for the upside.

At this juncture there are still no extremes. Bulls are close to 60, but not there. Bears have overall been more complacent of late.

It did its work in the late 2018 selling with a crossover of the bulls and bears, and when that occurs you expect a recovery. That has been the case. Now with the indices bumping resistance you look for extremes, but bulls are not hitting that 60ish level that has prompted selling/corrections in this long rally from 2009.

Indicator level: Shading to yellow for this week even as bulls backed off. Not in the 60's, but not much fear from the selling.

Bulls: 51.4 versus 55.5
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 15.96; +0.67
VXN: 19.39; +0.99
VXO: 17.03; +0.84

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.07. Eight of nine sessions over 1.0. Lots of negativity by this measure, but the other indicators are not there yet.

Bulls: 51.4 versus 55.5
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.71; +1.41. Seriously? These kind of losses on the week and barely moving higher?
VXN: 23.23; +1.55
VXO: 20.98; +1.56

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.19; +0.09. 18 of 21 sessions closing at 1.0 or better. Definitely one indicator at an extreme. The others, alas, are not.

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls faded farther, falling below 50 with a pretty solid 6 point drop over 3 weeks. Bears fell yet again. Bears lower on selling, VIX not spiking on selling. Appears there are more issues to resolve that this range trading action at the head and shoulders neckline has not been able to rectify.

Bulls surprisingly resilient, falling but not much. Bears actually rose. Still no extremes though bulls were close to the 60's that has marked tops. Apparently this was close enough for stock market work.

It did its work in the late 2018 selling with a crossover of the bulls and bears, and when that occurs you expect a recovery. That has been the case. Now with the indices bumping resistance you look for extremes, but bulls are not hitting that 60ish level that has prompted selling/corrections in this long rally from 2009.

Indicator level: Shading to yellow for this week even as bulls backed off. Not in the 60's, but not much fear from the selling.

Bulls: 49.0 versus 49.5 versus
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.2

Source: Investment House