Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.14; -0.43
VXN: 19.80; -0.44
VXO: 16.67; -0.43

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.29

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls rebounded farther but the move has slowed after that crash into the thirties during the December selloff. Bears are fading but bulls and bears crossed and did their 'thing' in terms of a contrary signal.

Bulls: 45.8 versus 45.4
Bears: 20.6 versus 21.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

How to Invest in the Stock Market: Understanding Investor Psychology

by Will Healy

John Bogle: “Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets.”

1. On an expensive stock, for an investor who knows a stock they own has become overvalued yet does not want to sell since it keeps moving higher, buy some puts for insurance.

2. Protecting a position for a stock bought cheaply would work differently. First, look for long-term profit growth. Over time, profit growth either forces the PE ratio lower or the stock higher.

Source: Investor Place

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-sell ... 40757.html

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 15.72; -0.65
VXN: 20.04; -0.88
VXO: 16.30; -0.49

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; +0.05

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continue to recover, bears hold steady, both after really large moves during the late 2018 selling.

Bulls: 48.6 versus 45.8
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 14.91; -1.31
VXN: 17.70; -1.32
VXO: 15.18; -1.13

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.80; -0.12

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls up again, but bears moved up a bit as some discomfort with the long recovery rally.

Bulls: 49.5 versus 48.6
Bears: 21.5 versus 20.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.51; -0.95
VXN: 16.95; -1.24
VXO: 13.87; -0.99

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; -0.14

Bulls and Bears:

Getting a bit bullish with a move over 50 while bears dropped right back below 21 after the short break higher. Fear continues to subside.

Bulls up again, but bears moved up a bit as some discomfort with the long recovery rally.

Bulls: 51.9 versus 49.5
Bears: 20.7 versus 21.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.57; -1.21
VXN: 16.12; -1.05
VXO: 12.88; -1.63

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; -0.05

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continue their recovery, bears continue their decline after they merged in late 2018.

Bulls: 52.4 versus 51.9
Bears: 20.4 versus 20.7

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.05; -0.54
VXN: 19.12; -0.47
VXO: 16.12; -0.98

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.15

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls higher again, moving up into a selloff. Surely they will be lower the following week. The issue, however, is the surge after crossing the bears in late 2018.

Confidence is pretty high despite the reported lack of confidence. Advisors remain bullish, talking their book, even as money is pulled from equities.

Bulls: 52.9 versus 52.4
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.88; -0.62
VXN: 15.12; -0.53
VXO: 12.14; -1.26

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.06

Bulls and Bears:

The pullback from the prior week stalled the bulls' advance a bit while bears moved back over 21 after a 2 week hiatus below that level. Not major change in the trends: bulls are moving back up, bears sliding again, and this past week's action will further those trends.

Bulls: 52.4 versus 52.9
Bears: 21.4 versus 20.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 16.48; +2.85
VXN: 19.83; +3.24
VXO: 17.26; +2.86

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.12

Bulls and Bears:

Knew there would be a bounce in bullish sentiment. Interestingly, more of a relative decline in bears then the rise in bulls. Did its jobs on the crossover though that was quite some time back.

Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4
Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.71; -0.72
VXN: 16.62; -1.37
VXO: 14.02; -1.65

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.01


Bulls and Bears:

Very status quo after the big recovery. Both bulls, bears holding position.

Bulls: 52.0 versus 53.9
Bears: 20.6 versus 20.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.

Source: Investment House