Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT

Outflows: $46B flowed out of US stock funds the prior week, a record. At the same time Money Market inflows hit a record as well.

The market selling but NASDAQ and SOX are still holding above the lows, SP500 and DJ30 as well if measured by the intraday lows.

The sentiment from the AAIA shows the most bearishness about the next six months in over a decade. This plays for a surprise bounce. They often happen when no one thinks it can, though I saw one pundit saying a 10% bounce can still happen.

VIX: 21.63; +0.98
VXN: 27.62; +1.82
VXO: 23.95; +1.43

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

Minor fade on bulls after that surge the prior week from 38.3. Bears fell after finally breaking over 20; at least they held 20. They have converged more than anytime since 2016, but nothing that would suggest extreme. If anything, bears are still extremely low.

Bulls: 45.5 versus 46.7
Bears: 20.4 versus 21.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

Outflows: $46B flowed out of US stock funds the prior week, a record. At the same time Money Market inflows hit a record as well.

The market selling but NASDAQ and SOX are still holding above the lows, SP500 and DJ30 as well if measured by the intraday lows.

The sentiment from the AAIA shows the most bearishness about the next six months in over a decade. This plays for a surprise bounce. They often happen when no one thinks it can, though I saw one pundit saying a 10% bounce can still happen.

VIX: 21.63; +0.98
VXN: 27.62; +1.82
VXO: 23.95; +1.43

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

Minor fade on bulls after that surge the prior week from 38.3. Bears fell after finally breaking over 20; at least they held 20. They have converged more than anytime since 2016, but nothing that would suggest extreme. If anything, bears are still extremely low.

Bulls: 45.5 versus 46.7
Bears: 20.4 versus 21.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

Outflows: $46B flowed out of US stock funds the prior week, a record. At the same time Money Market inflows hit a record as well.

The market selling but NASDAQ and SOX are still holding above the lows, SP500 and DJ30 as well if measured by the intraday lows.

The sentiment from the AAIA shows the most bearishness about the next six months in over a decade. This plays for a surprise bounce. They often happen when no one thinks it can, though I saw one pundit saying a 10% bounce can still happen.

VIX: 21.63; +0.98
VXN: 27.62; +1.82
VXO: 23.95; +1.43

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

Minor fade on bulls after that surge the prior week from 38.3. Bears fell after finally breaking over 20; at least they held 20. They have converged more than anytime since 2016, but nothing that would suggest extreme. If anything, bears are still extremely low.

Bulls: 45.5 versus 46.7
Bears: 20.4 versus 21.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

Outflows: $46B flowed out of US stock funds the prior week, a record. At the same time Money Market inflows hit a record as well.

The market selling but NASDAQ and SOX are still holding above the lows, SP500 and DJ30 as well if measured by the intraday lows.

The sentiment from the AAIA shows the most bearishness about the next six months in over a decade. This plays for a surprise bounce. They often happen when no one thinks it can, though I saw one pundit saying a 10% bounce can still happen.

VIX: 21.63; +0.98
VXN: 27.62; +1.82
VXO: 23.95; +1.43

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

Minor fade on bulls after that surge the prior week from 38.3. Bears fell after finally breaking over 20; at least they held 20. They have converged more than anytime since 2016, but nothing that would suggest extreme. If anything, bears are still extremely low.

Bulls: 45.5 versus 46.7
Bears: 20.4 versus 21.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 30.11; +1.73. As noted, VIX closed at a new closing high since February, and though it is nowhere near as rambunctious as early year, ironically its closing high is not that far off the February high (37.32).

Typically, the intraday spikes are the really high readings as they are often immediately followed by some sort of recovery such as an intraday reversal.

CHART: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/VIX.jpg


VXN: 33.87; +2.87
VXO: 32.11; +2.06

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.43; -0.39. Logged many consecutive closes above 1.0 and is one of the indicators in position for a market bounce.

Bulls and Bears:

Falling and rebounding to where they were four weeks back. Starting to converge. This coming week's numbers should show a bull dive and bear jump, converging the two to levels not seen since 2016.

Bulls: 39.3 versus 45.5
Bears: 21.4 versus 20.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 28.34; -1.62
VXN: 34.20; -0.17
VXO: 31.64; -2.35

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.78; -0.18

Bulls and Bears:

Falling and rebounding to where they were four weeks back. Starting to converge. This coming week's numbers should show a bull dive and bear jump, converging the two to levels not seen since 2016.

Bulls: 39.3 versus 45.5
Bears: 21.4 versus 20.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 21.38; -4.07
VXN: 28.57; -3.61
VXO: 24.38; -3.88

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; -0.40

Bulls and Bears:

Now THAT is a move. Both bulls and bears. Yes, a crossover in just about record time. Is this now indicating a bottom in stocks?

Yes and no. It is an indicator that takes time for the rally to occur. That said, stocks have bounced -- modestly -- paused, and arguably in position to continue the bounce.

This indicator, however, is more of a longer term indicator. As such, it suggests more than a bounce.

Interesting, but need more good patterns to support a bounce; that can happen over time, and as indicated this is not an immediate, Pavlovian market response. Regardless, this was an impressive move.

Bulls: 29.9 versus 39.3
Bears: 34.6 versus 21.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.19; -1.31
VXN: 24.78; -1.13
VXO: 19.45; -1.69

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.08; -0.05

Bulls and Bears:

After a quick crossover, a quick trist, bulls rebounded, bears fell a bit, and there is some separation.

Still, the deed is done; they crossed over, typically a very good indication sentiment was extreme to the negative and sets up a move higher.

We are seeing a move and now the indices are near the next key levels of resistance.

Bulls: 34.8 versus 29.9
Bears: 29.4 versus 34.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 17.80; -0.26
VXN: 21.89; -1.45
VXO: 17.76; +0.11

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; +0.04

Bulls and Bears:

After a quick crossover, a quick trist, bulls rebounded, bears fell a bit, and there is some separation.

Still, the deed is done; they crossed over, typically a very good indication sentiment was extreme to the negative and sets up a move higher.

We are seeing a move and now the indices are near the next key levels of resistance.

Bulls: 34.8 versus 29.9
Bears: 29.4 versus 34.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 17.42; -1.47
VXN: 21.78; -1.71
VXO: 18.25; -1.13

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.75; -0.23

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continued a bounce back in the forties with bears dropping back near 20. Then the market sold back this week.

Still, the crossover occurred and that is a bullish indication. The market has made a move up, is testing, and then the question is if it can continue from there.

Bulls: 45.4 versus 42.1 versus 34.8
Bears: 21.3 versus 25.2 versus 29.4

Source: Investment House