Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 12.12; -0.29
VXN: 16.58; -0.17
VXO: 11.30; -0.38

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.06; +0.12


Bulls and Bears:

Bulls continue bumping at 60.0, a historically high level that leads to declines. Bears remain elevated, but not moving higher right now.

Bulls: 59.0 versus 57.7
Bears: 18.1 versus 18.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 21.31; -3.67. Hit 28.84 on the Thursday high, just below 27 on the Friday high. That topped the March high but nowhere near the 50 in February.

VXN: 24.69; -3.07
VXO: 21.16; -5.73

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.16; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

A somewhat precipitous plunge after a 61.8 peak on this move. Right at the range of the prior drops starts, 50ish is the lows before a bounce. Bears actually fell 0.1.

Bulls: 56.3 versus 61.8
Bears: 18.5 versus 18.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 21.31; -3.67. Hit 28.84 on the Thursday high, just below 27 on the Friday high. That topped the March high but nowhere near the 50 in February.

VXN: 24.69; -3.07
VXO: 21.16; -5.73

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.16; -0.02

Bulls and Bears:

A somewhat precipitous plunge after a 61.8 peak on this move. Right at the range of the prior drops starts, 50ish is the lows before a bounce. Bears actually fell 0.1.

Bulls: 56.3 versus 61.8
Bears: 18.5 versus 18.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 19.51; +0.17
VXN: 26.65; +0.53
VXO: 22.56; +1.31

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.08


Bulls and Bears:

This now gets at least interesting. Bulls tumbled 6.2 points, now well below 50. Perhaps that is the dam breaking and negative sentiment will ramp. It is noteworthy that the market rebounded in the aftermath. Bears mad a significant move, at least for the bears.

Bulls: 44.3 versus 50.5
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0

Source: investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 19.51; +0.17
VXN: 26.65; +0.53
VXO: 22.56; +1.31

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.08


Bulls and Bears:

This now gets at least interesting. Bulls tumbled 6.2 points, now well below 50. Perhaps that is the dam breaking and negative sentiment will ramp. It is noteworthy that the market rebounded in the aftermath. Bears mad a significant move, at least for the bears.

Bulls: 44.3 versus 50.5
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0

Source: investment House

[winston]

Investors haven't been this pessimistic since the 2016 election, and it could lead to a big bounce

by Keris Lahiff

"Looking at the put/call ratio, you're looking at very high levels of pessimism".

It is possible for "one last hurrah rally" this year, but tighter monetary policy from global central banks puts the long-term bull market in doubt.

"Bonds no longer offer a negative correlation to stocks. In other words, bonds can fall just the same way that stocks do. There is no safe haven to hide".

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/pessimi ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 17.36; +0.64
VXN: 24.27; +1.41
VXO: 18.09; +1.18

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.14

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls are on an impressive dive from the low sixties to the low forties. Straight down. Bears are up but held steady on the week. Bulls are willing to converge, bears are not there yet.

Stocks selling after bulls in the sixties is normal. They have bounced from here before, but in 2015 and again in 2016 they fell to the mid-twenties, crossing over with bears.

This now gets at least interesting. Bulls tumbled 6.2 points, now well below 50. Perhaps that is the dam breaking and negative sentiment will ramp. It is noteworthy that the market rebounded in the aftermath. Bears mad a significant move, at least for the bears.

Bulls: 42.5 versus 44.3
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.14; -1.84
VXN: 24.38; -1.67
VXO: 19.94; -1.57

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.09

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls held relatively steady after a serious dive from the low sixties to low forties. Bears actually shrank. Just not a lot of convergence between the two right now to show really bottoming action, BUT bulls have dropped off significantly, and that is some upside impetus.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 42.5
Bears: 19.0 versus 19.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.14; -1.84
VXN: 24.38; -1.67
VXO: 19.94; -1.57

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.09

Bulls and Bears:

Bulls held relatively steady after a serious dive from the low sixties to low forties. Bears actually shrank. Just not a lot of convergence between the two right now to show really bottoming action, BUT bulls have dropped off significantly, and that is some upside impetus.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 42.5
Bears: 19.0 versus 19.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT

VIX: 18.07; -0.72
VXN: 24.02; -0.31
VXO: 20.75; -0.60

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; -0.13

Bulls and Bears:

A second week below 40 as bulls slide a bit more in what is a precipitous drop. Maybe not into the low thirties, but the magnitude and angle of decline was enough to contribute to the bounce. Bears move over 20 for the first time since early 2018. Significant as well.

Bulls: 38.3 versus 39.6
Bears: 20.6 versus 19.8

Source: Investment House