Market Sentiment 05 (Nov 17 - Dec 25)

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.16; +0.28
VXN: 14.57; -0.20
VXO: 9.30; +0.42

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.74; +0.02

Bulls and Bears: Bulls surged back up and matched the cycle high. Bears broke sharply lower to a cycle low.

Bulls: 64.4 versus 61.9
Bears: 13.5 versus 15.2

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.27; -0.95
VXN: 16.15; -0.80
VXO: 10.41; -0.63

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; +0.03

Bulls and Bears: Cycle highs and cycle lows for bulls and bears, respectively. This is starting to flash brightly as a warning. Bulls are having their own blow off top of sorts.

Bulls: 66.7 versus 64.4
Bears: 12.7 versus 13.5

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.08; -0.50
VXN: 17.52; -0.73
VXO: 11.47; -0.04

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; -0.01

Bulls and Bears: Bulls backed off the cycle high but still very strong. Bears ticked higher, but still at 30 year lows.

Bulls: 64.7 versus 66.7
Bears: 12.8 versus 12.7

Source: investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 17.31; +3.84. Exploding higher 28.5%. As it should. It did not surge during the upside so this is not indicating a major top.
VXN: 20.66; +1.51
VXO: 16.82; +3.38

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.90; -0.01


Bulls and Bears: Bulls bounced right back upside, just below the cycle high 67.0. Bears fell to cycle lows at 12.6, still hanging around 30 year lows.

Bulls: 66.00 versus 64.7
Bears: 12.6 versus 12.8

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 33.46; +5.73. Up, but not soaring and did not take out the prior high from Tuesday, not even close. Indeed, it is lower than Monday. Something strange there.
VXN: 33.89; +9.16
VXO: 32.36; +11.36

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; +0.23. First spike over 1.0 in a long time.
Finally shaking the tree of those upside buyers.

Bulls and Bears: From highs and lows greater than the prior 30+ years, bulls tumbled over 10 points and bears jumped 3 points -- major moves. Okay, so the damage has been done.

Bulls: 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 15.5 versus 12.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 19.46; +0.33
VXN: 20.46; -0.39
VXO: 17.38; +0.12

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.01. Elevated all week as the market rallied. What will be funny is how they all closed downside positions just as the rebound move peaks.

Bulls and Bears: Not as dramatic a bull drop but significant. 12 points the prior week, 2.5 the past week. Bears bumped higher off 30 year lows two weeks back, faded just a bit the week after.

Bulls: 51.9 versus 54.4
Bears: 14.4 versus 15.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 16.49; -2.23
VXN: 18.16; -2.75
VXO: 14.92; -2.85

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; -0.11. Shorts forced to cover as the market
broke higher again.

Bulls and Bears: A veritable plummet in bulls ongoing, breaking below 50 for the first time since the second half of 2016. Bears remain in hibernation.

Bulls: 48.5 versus 51.9
Bears: 14.6 versus 14.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 14.64; -1.90
VXN: 17.30; -1.96
VXO: 13.91; -2.22

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.81; -0.09

Bulls and Bears: Of course there was a huge drop in bulls the past several weeks, with no real improvement the past week, as the market started back upside.

SOX is up 3 of 4 weeks as sentiment plunged. NASDAQ the same. Sentiment is quite obviously a contrary indicator.

Bulls: 48.6 versus 48.1
Bears: 15.5 versus 14.4

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 15.80; -0.79
VXN: 17.64; -0.81
VXO: 14.11; -0.62

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.07

Bulls and Bears: The rally to new highs on NASDAQ and SOX two weeks back of course brought the bulls back in with a solid bump of over six points.

Heck, that is a big bump. Bears were not convinced, and they actually rose 0.2 even as the market rallied.

Bulls: 54.9 versus 48.6
Bears: 15.7 versus 15.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 24.87; +1.53
VXN: 28.35; +1.72
VXO: 24.70; +2.59

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.54; +0.32

Bulls and Bears: Bulls rebounded, but bears saw a substantial rise in pessimism. Bulls more bullish, bears more bearish. It would appear the bears had the better take on it.

Bulls: 55.5 versus 54.9
Bears: 16.8 versus 15.7

Source: Investment House