by winston » Tue Jun 07, 2016 1:43 pm
<Research Report>Daiwa Expects Further 5% Fall in HK Home Prices, Totalling 10% Fall in 2016
Daiwa, in its report, said Centa-City Leading Index for April and May appear to show initial signs that Hong Kong's residential property prices are stabilising (so far this year, the index has fallen by 5.5% year-to-date and is off 12.6%).
However, the broker's base case is for a further 5% price decline in 2016, totalling a 10% fall for the whole 2016.
The broker has a Positive rating on the Hong Kong property sector with top picks including CK PROPERTY (01113.HK), SHK PPT (00016.HK), and HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) with rating Buy at target prices of $71, $131.6 and $60.8 respectively.
The broker believed Hong Kong property share prices have already priced in a meltdown scenario for the residential property market, but the broker said such a scenario is too pessimistic.
While the primary market sales transaction volume in January and February 2016 was below the level seen during the SARS outbreak, leading to fears of a price war to come, it appears this scenario has not materialised.
Over the past few months, primary market sales have been picking up, with primary market sales (as at 31 May) year-to-date at $53.8 billion, compared to $9.4 billion at end-February.
The broker expected the 2016 primary market sales can reach Daiwa's forecast of $91.8 billion.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
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