AUD 01 (May 08 - Feb 12)

[millionairemind]

No....

But then again, I don't play currencies (not smart enough... actually, not smart enough for anything )..

The only time in recent memories that I held Aust$ was when I was on vacation there last Dec.

As of this writing, AUDSGD is at 1.198 after having hit a peak of 1.295 early April.

[kennynah]

thanks...and concur with your views.

i would think it maybe a better bet to go against AUD...but our challenge is that we would be trading a cross pair; ie AUD/SGD, which makes it invariably harder to sense the movement vs AUD/USD major pair...

my thoughts are that kangeroo land would not want to keep raising interest rates anymore... in the face of EZ problems...better to stay put or even reduce rates if necessary...while we all know it is inevitable for US to raise theirs....

if at all a position play.... Short AUD/USD but for the mid term, 3-6 months...maybe FCFD in AUD in singapore for the yield..

[winston]

Vested.

On CNBC:-

Darryl Guppy thinks that it will trend down to 0.84 and if it does not hold, the next target is 0.78.

[kennynah]

i thought i saw tonylim's post on AUD a moment ago...

anyways... the speculative reasons for AUD fall against USD today...story went like this..

commodities and particularly gold has dropped off a bit....

fin min has hinted several times that rate hikes are about done...(read...it wont go up further...which means, it might come down in due course)

aud.jpy cross pair got hammered by jap traders as japanese gdp figures were good (1.25% growth)..and that spilled over effect onto the aud/usd major pair

(edited)

Is there any reason why A$ vs S$ depreciates so speedily from 1.29 to 1.16 now ?

this was posted in another thread...

[tonylim]

Hi Kenny ,

Yes I posted on the wrong thread and I cancelled it.

I just wonder why A$ depreciates so speedily against S$ from 1.29 to 1.16 ? Down like a lift ?

[kennynah]

hi tony,

i really dont think anyone can know the real causes of any fx moves... we just go with the flow if we are trading it... but if one has a huge FCFD or long term position on a certain currency, it needs to be monitored very vigorously... fx swings, though in appearance is small, by the nature of the leverage, the absolute impact can be great...

also, becos we are a cross pair; ie aud/sgd, this pair can move, despite no direct linkages to singapore's economy, as it is apparent in the knock-on effect of aud/usd potentially caused by aud/jpy pair's movement today...

[tonylim]

hi tony,

i really dont think anyone can know the real causes of any fx moves... we just go with the flow if we are trading it... but if one has a huge FCFD or long term position on a certain currency, it needs to be monitored very vigorously... fx swings, though in appearance is small, by the nature of the leverage, the absolute impact can be great...

also, becos we are a cross pair; ie aud/sgd, this pair can move, despite no direct linkages to singapore's economy, as it is apparent in the knock-on effect of aud/usd potentially caused by aud/jpy pair's movement today...

Hi Kenny,

Thanks and all the best.

[mojo_]

Notice that at the height of the GFC the AUD dropped below parity with SGD. I can only guess that it was due to fear of a global depression reducing demand significantly for the lucky country's commodities.

Now with the threat of the EFC possibly engendering a global depression, the same fear is driving AUD down again?
I'm waiting for it to drop to parity again vs SGD during the upcoming panic to lock in this commodity currency as a yield play..

[millionairemind]

Mojo san always come with nice charts.

Thanks!

[mojo_]

don't touch my moustache! (doita shimashite!)