by Aspellian » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:49 am
FPSOs slated for strong rebound
The market for floating production, storage and offloading units is on track for a strong rebound as oil and gas operators set out to sanction more projects on the back of recovering oil prices, according to a senior analyst with ODS-Petrodata.
Tan Hwee Hwee 22 February 2010 02:22 GMT
At least 15 contracts are likely to be awarded this year out of over 30 international projects pencilled in for the pipeline, ODS-Petrodata's Kelvin Sam said, drawing on data captured on ODS-Petrodata's floating production database, FPSBase.
These projects are mostly driven by large, well-funded international oil companies or national oil companies, suggesting they are less likely to be delayed or cancelled, Sam said.
The first two months of 2010 alone saw the award of four contracts, Italian Eni's Goliat and Kitan FPSOs off Norway and Timor Leste, Petrobras' pilot project at the Guara discovery and OGX's planned deployment of Nexus 1 FPSO both off Brazil.
The marked recovery is a continuation of a pick-up in activity since the fourth quarter of last year, which saw the award of seven contracts, Sam said.
Only two contracts were awarded in the first nine months of 2009 and none at all in the last three months of 2008, according to ODS-Petrodata's FPSBase.
Sam expects oil prices now ranging in the $70s to support a continued recovery although competition among contractors will remain stiff.
The slowdown in new contract awards since late 2008 have seen idle FPSOs reaching a record high of 10 units currently.
Contractors may seek to redeploy their idle vessels and would remain under pressure to bid competitively to replenish their order books.
The downturn in late 2008, however, is likely to speed up project executions, according to Sam.
Equipment suppliers had an opportunity to clear the order backlogs accumulated during the earlier upswing and this implies shorter lead time for equipment deliveries for new FPSO projects, potentially shortening the project cycles by two to three months.
Project costs, however, will increase by 8% year-on-year in 2010, but are not expected to return to the peak of 2006 to 2007 until 2013 and beyond, Sam said.
The cost increment may not necessarily translate to higher contract values.
Contractors may seek to redeploy their idle vessels and would remain under pressure to bid competitively to replenish their order books, he added.
Oil and gas operators have held back on sanctioning new field developments including FPSO projects after the double whammy of a drastic fall in commodity prices and global financial crisis since the second half of 2008.
Analysts have projected operators and yards may remain major sources for FPSO project financing, with majority of the contractors continue to grapple with cash flow issues.
Published: 22 February 2010 02:22 GMT | Last updated: 22 February 2010 12:37 GMT
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