Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 01 (May 08 - Apr 16)

[winston]

Yahoo Selling Entire Stake in Alibaba.com at Discount (Update2) By Sarah Jones and Mark Lee

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Yahoo! Inc. is selling its entire stake in Alibaba.com Ltd., operator of China’s biggest trading Web site, for as much as HK$1.17 billion ($151 million), according to the terms of the sale obtained by Bloomberg News.

UBS AG, the sole bookrunner, is placing 57.5 million shares, equivalent to a 1.1 percent stake, at an indicated price range of HK$19.80 to HK$20.30 apiece, the terms showed. That’s 6.4 percent to 4 percent lower than Alibaba’s closing price in Hong Kong today.

The Sunnyvale, California-based owner of the second-biggest U.S. Internet search engine is selling the shares after the Chinese company’s stock almost quadrupled in Hong Kong trading this year. Yahoo still owns a 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the parent of Alibaba.com.

The company is pleased with the sale because it will help boost the liquidity of Alibaba shares, John Spelich, a spokesman at the Chinese company, said in an e-mail. The number of shares being sold represents Yahoo’s entire stake in the Hong Kong- listed unit, Spelich said.

( The company is pleased becuz someone just sold their entire stake ? )

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... obaGht0DIg

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ Alibaba.com 3rd-Quarter Net Profit Down 20.4% At CNY236.0 Mln

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--China's Alibaba.com Ltd. (1688.HK), an online business platform operator, said Tuesday its third-quarter net profit fell 20.4% from a year earlier because of higher marketing costs and increased spending on infrastructure and technology.

The listed unit of Alibaba Group said its net profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 was CNY236.0 million, down from CNY296.6 million a year earlier.

Its net profit was slightly lower than the average CNY237.0 million forecast of six analysts polled earlier by Dow Jones Newswires.

Revenue rose 32.1% to CNY1.03 billion from CNY781.5 million a year earlier.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) owns a 39% stake in Alibaba Group. Alibaba Group also operates Taobao.com, an online shopping Web site; Alipay, an online payment service in China; and Yahoo China, a Chinese-language portal service.

Source: Lorraine Luk, Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Alibaba Down 1.5% Pre-Open; Sales Accelerating-MS

0939 [Dow Jones] At pre-open, Alibaba.com (1688.HK) bid down 1.5% at HK$18.00 on post-results profit-taking, but unlikely to give up all of yesterday's 3.6% gain. 4Q09 net profit +49% on-year at CNY281.2 million, halts 4 consecutive quarters of on-year earnings decline, as Alibaba rides on China's export recovery.

Morgan Stanley likes 4 things from results: Thanks to macro recovery, market share expansion, Alibaba's sales accelerated 36%; paying customer volume jumped 42% on-year; VAS from China Gold Supplier members contributed high-teens percentage of total sales, up from nearly nil 3 years ago; deferred revenue, customer advance accelerated 50% on-year. Keeps Overweight call, DCF fair value of HK$22.30.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Alibaba.com's Results Sound, But Valuations Lofty

0757 [Dow Jones] Alibaba.com (1688.HK) may not rally much further after solid 4Q given pre-results optimism; on-line business platform operator posts 4Q net profit +49% on year at CNY281.2 million vs CNY265 million tipped in Dow Jones poll, on higher revenue as members grow.

Business prospects sound with deferred revenue - income received but not yet recognized - up 50% on year at CNY3.44 billion in 4Q, which good indicator of future revenue growth.

Alibaba viewed by investors as export play as it provides platform matching China exporters with foreign buyers, should continue to benefit from China's export recovery, but valuations remain lofty; based on Thomson Reuters, stock valued at 50X, 36X this year and next's earnings; ends Tuesday +3.6% at HK$18.28 pre-results

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

-0-

[winston]

It's Put Warrant was up 35% this morning ...

DJ MARKET TALK: Alibaba Earnings Growth Momentum Still High -CLSA

1206 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CLSA keeps Alibaba.com (1688.HK) at Buy with target HK$24.00 on view 4Q results good, with operating profit +60% on-year, proving strategy of lowering membership prices has worked.

Says, deferred revenue, an important indicator of future earnings better than expected at CNY3.31 billion, +43% on-year.

"Alibaba plans to replicate the success on their China marketplace and we should see an acceleration of subscriber growth this year. Earning growth momentum remains high at about 50% for 2010 and 2011 with robust subscriber growth and margin recovery."

Adds, valuation looks reasonable at 1.2X FY10 PEG. Stock off 5.1% at HK$17.34 after rising 3.6% Tuesday.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Credit Suisse Downgrades Alibaba To Neutral


0907 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse downgrades Alibaba (1688.HK) to Neutral from Outperform, due to concerns over higher cost; this comes after 4Q results, with operating profit +3% on-quarter, but was 7% below house's forecast on higher expenses.

Notes, selling and marketing expenses +4% on-quarter and 1% above house's forecast on rise in advertising spending for international market. House cuts FY10 EPS by 33% and FY11 by 39%, assuming higher marketing and general & administrative expenses, lower margin on Hi-China business.

Cuts target to HK$20.0 from HK$24.50. Stock ended down 5.9% at HK$17.20 Wednesday.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK:Nomura Cuts Alibaba Target To HK$20.50 Vs HK$21.50

1218 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Nomura cuts Alibaba.com's (1688.HK) target to HK$20.50 from HK$21.50 after cutting FY10 operating margin forecast to 29.3% from 32.9%. Keeps Neutral.

Says, Alibaba.com reported 4Q09 results slightly below house's estimates on the top line, but higher on the bottom line. Tips key investment positives include: better-than-expected net adds of paying members; growing deferred revenue providing visibility for future profits; and management's strategy to invest in future growth.

But sees no new significant near-term catalysts as no major product launch or initiative to drive growth in near term. Stock off 5.9% at HK$17.18 on profit-taking after a 3.6% rise Tuesday.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Citi Keeps Alibaba.com At Buy; Targets HK$23.00

1209 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup keeps Alibaba.com (1688.HK) at Buy with HK$23.00 target after firm posted solid 4Q results. Says, Alibaba has successfully executed first phase of its transformed business model, by significantly accelerating paying member acquisitions since introduction of Gold Supplier Starter Packs in 2008.

"Even as the company extends this strategy to the China Marketplace, we look forward to value-added services ramping up and increasing revenue contribution, which is now the key component to our positive thesis."

Adds, investors will need time to evaluate success of adjusted revenue model for China Marketplace, which contributed meaningful 37% of Alibaba's total revenue in 2009. Stock off 5.7% at HK$17.24 on profit-taking after a 3.6% rise Tuesday.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested.

Billionaire Soros Buys Alibaba Stake, CEO Wei Says (Update2) By Mark Lee

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros bought shares in China’s Alibaba.com Ltd. during the third quarter and is now among its largest shareholders, Chief Executive Officer David Wei said.

The founder of Soros Fund Management LLC visited Alibaba during the summer, Wei said in Shenzhen today at the company’s shareholders’ meeting. He declined to provide specific details.

The investment may be a vote of confidence for a stock that’s underperformed Hong Kong’s benchmark index by falling 13 percent this year. Most analysts covering Alibaba, operator of the biggest online commerce site in the world’s biggest Internet market, advise shareholders to hold or sell the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Separately, Joseph Tsai, chief financial officer of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., said the parent company is ready to buy back Yahoo! Inc.’s stake, though the U.S. company hasn’t indicated it will sell. In 2005, Yahoo paid $1 billion and swapped its China operations for a 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group.

Alibaba.com yesterday reported first-quarter profit rose 34 percent after the company attracted more companies to market their products.

A call to the office phone of Michael Vachon, a New York- based spokesman for Soros Fund Management, went unanswered outside of regular business hours.

Alibaba rose 4.4 percent to HK$15.68 at the midday break in Hong Kong trading.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ate2-.html

[winston]

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Risks

Up risk
1. Paying members increase beats the expectation.
2. New business develops beyond the expectation.

Down risk
1. Outside economy double dips.
2. Market share declines.


Over-estimated valuation overdraws the growth potentials, initiate with Hold rating

With its excellent management, outstanding network effect and strong innovation capability, Alibaba.com has established its own barrier to industry competitors and increased its customers` stickiness to its platform.

The company appointed 2009 as the Investment Year, and 2010 as the Service Year, returning to meet the demand of its customers.

We expect its revenue of 2010-2012 will be RMB5461million, RMB6990million and RMB8738million respectively with CAGR of 31.1% and net profit will be RMB1321million, RMB1681million and RMB2200million with CAGR of 29.5%, and its leading PE is 51.5x, 40.5x and 30.9x.

Though with excellent outlook and market position, its valuation is over estimated from the aspect of investment, and overdraws its growth potentials in some degree, reflecting no large up room for the price flowing its performance improvement in the short term. T

Therefore, we initiate with Hold rating, with 12-month TP of HK$16.50.