Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

Am short sugar. Will have to see how it goes. Meanwhile, buying other soft commodities which are "cheaper", as a hedge to the short sugar position.

Normally, the families react together eg. grains or metals.

One strategy is to short the weakest of the family, when you see a correction on the strongest of the family. And buy the strongest of the family when the family start to rebound from a prolonged weakness.

I think Soft Commodities eg. Corn, are now correcting due to record output. Not too sure that it's the right strategy to be long soft commodities while shorting sugar.

In addition, the regulations to limit the speculation in Commodities may take away a lot of liquidity in Commodities especially grains. Food is a very sensitive item..

Note: I have stopped trading commodities for a long time.

[winston]

TOL as of January 31, 2010:-


Who do you trust ? Your Mind or your Eyes ?


Now that the markets are starting to correct. my mind is starting to play games with me. It's starting to ask me NOT to go along with the crowd. It's starting to ask me to be a Contrarian. It's starting to ask me to "Buy on the Dips".

Under such circumstances, I normally try to switch off the mind and to force myself to look at the charts. And from there, hopefully, I can see the Market Direction as well as whether people are selling on the rebounds.

Anyway, I dont really like what I see and I'm no longer buying any Equities unless there's a very very strong catalyst. I'm also no longer applying for any IPOs. There has been a change in sentiment. I may even buy some HSI Put Warrants next week depending on the rebound.


1) Oil - US$72.72 down from US$ 74.5 last week. Waiting for US$68.

2) Gold - US$ 1081 from US$1090 last week; Waiting for US$850.

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well. Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 2990 from 3129 last week. 3050 has been taken out convincingly. Strong Support @ 2750. People are also now taking money off the table before the week-long CNY holidays. Chinese IPOs will be stopped from Feb 1, 2010.

5) HK Equities - 20134 from 20726 last week. Support at 20375 taken out. Strong support at 19500. Position in AMVIG only. There's also some funds outflow from HK.

6) HK IPO - I've stopped applying for the HK IPOs. South Gobi was down 20%.

7) Spore Equities - 2745 from 2820 last week. Support at 2625.

8) US Equities - 1085 from 1116 last week. If the support at 1080 is taken out, the next stop is 1035 and then 995. Still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 10198 from 10591 last week. Next Stop @ 9850. Strong support at 9075.

10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - You know that the property market is not too hot when the real estate agents cold-call and send flyers to you.

11) Swine Flu - Will take this off my list when the weather turns warmer.

12) Emerging Markets - Please see the "Emerging Markets" thread. There has been a breakdown in the charts of China, India and Brazil. Russia is not too far behind.

13) Iran - When will sanctions start ?

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010. If there's further correction, redemptions may start to go up in the next two weeks.

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Greece is paying 6.25%. How much longer can the Americans and the Japanese, keep their interest rates at close to zero ?

16) USD - now at 79.48. Waiting for the 50% retracement of about 82.


A few reminders for myself:-
a) The trend is my friend
b) Be patient.
c) Cash is king again
d) Trust your eyes rather than your mind.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button ? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[lithium]

How about your heart? What's your heart telling you?

[winston]

Ha Ha ... the heart says that there will be a rebound in the HSI next week and MAYBE that's the time to buy some put warrants.

But to be safe, maybe buy only the put warrants and not the more leveraged bear warrants

[lithium]

HEHEHE........ we have the same heart.

[millionairemind]

Ha Ha ... the heart says that there will be a rebound in the HSI next week and MAYBE that's the time to buy some put warrants.

But to be safe, maybe buy only the put warrants and not the more leveraged bear warrants

haha.. I am expecting a rebound on Monday afternoon in the HK and Singapore markets.

I always found that the best time to initiate short positions is in the afternoon.

[lithium]

hmm, so short lived? Only 1 afternoon?

[winston]

4) Shanghai Equities - Chinese IPOs will be stopped from Feb 1, 2010.

It looks like the rumor was not true. There are still some IPO listings. However, Chinese IPOs on SSE are also not a sure thing nowadays.

[winston]

TOL as of February 7, 2010:-


The Year of The Tiger

As the year of the tiger supposedly began a few days ago on Febuary 4, there are now many predictions on the new year. One particular one is by CLSA. They were supposedly quite accurate for the Year of the Cow. I have posted their "Feng Shui" predictions in the "2010" thread, located in the Miscellaneous section.

The week in review:

1) Oil - US$71.19 down from US$ 74.5 last week. Waiting for US$68. The sharp drop on Thursday has shown how quickly speculative money can leave the Oil market and how it's quoted Price has nothing to do with Real Supply and Real Demand.

2) Gold - US$ 1052 from US$1090 last week; Waiting for US$850. Again, the sharp drop on Thursday has shown that gold is not really a storage of value when there's some real volatility.

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well. Waiting for the 50% retracement. If the correction is very sharp, I can see China again using their USD to buy physical commodities and then shipping them home. However, I dont think this will happen in the near future.

4) Shanghai Equities - 2939 from 2990 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. People will not dare to take big positions before the week-long CNY holidays. However, the Plunge Protection Team may use the low volume this week, to push things higher

5) HK Equities - 19665 from 20134 last week. Next support at 19,000 and then 17,250. Position in AMVIG only. If the correction is very steep, I can also see China using some of their USD to buy some H-Shares. Again, I dont see this happening in the near future.

6) HK IPO - I've stopped applying for the HK IPOs. The newcomers, Meike and SCE, were also weak this week.

7) Spore Equities - 2684 from 2745 last week. Support at 2625, 2575 and 2525, With the GE around the corner, the Spore market may probably outperform other markets.

8) US Equities - 1066 from 1085 last week. The next stop is 1035 and then 995. Am expecting the market to continue it's downtrend and am still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 10057 from 10198 last week. Next Stop @ 9850, 9075. There was a big bounced a few weeks ago when the Nikkei touched 9075.

10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - Can Property go up when Equities and Commodities are falling ?

11) Swine Flu - Weather turning warmer. Non-event ?

12) Emerging Markets - Funds Outflow. Risk-taking is definitely not the flavor of the month.

13) Iran - When will sanctions start ?

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010.

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - How much longer can the Americans and the Japanese, keep their interest rates at close to zero ? If the trade war and the Dalai Lama situation continues to worsen, the Chinese could suddenly stop bidding for the US treasuries.
..
16) USD - 80.38 from 79.48 last week. Waiting for the 50% retracement of about 82.

17) Trade War - Will it escalate into something bigger ?

18) Signature - I have changed my signature. It was inspired by what "tin peng" said recently


As I write the above, it feels like "Deja Vu" again. Equities, Properties and Commodities are "high" again while there's a lot of complacency. Intuitively, I dont see a crash but a 50% retracement over a two-year period cannot be ruled out. And the situation now is not too different from what happened after the Asian Financial Crisis either ...

Anyway, may you be always Healthy, Wealthy, Happy and Lucky in the Year of the Tiger !


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Symbols on Threads - I will try to put a symbol next to a thread in the forum, to symbolize my feelings towards that topic eg. question mark, warning, heart ( for something I like ) etc. If you do not agree with me on the symbol used, please do feel free to send me a PM

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button ? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of February 13, 2010:-


Tip-toeing back into Equities


After waiting on the side-lines for weeks, I'm starting to tip-toe back into the market. I think that the problems in the "Club Med" countries maybe temporary over, just like in Dubai. However, I'm also conscious that this 'Club-Med" issue, could also snowball into something much bigger eg. higher interest rates on Corporate Debts or higher European interest rate.

And if we combine the "Club-Med" issue with a series of tightening in China, Australia, Norway etc, it could also be a recipe for a steep correction. That's why, I'm tip-toeing back into Equities rather than backing up the truck ..

My Allocation is now 12% Equities, 2% Short ETF, 4% Gold and the rest in Cash.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$74.13 from US$71.19 last week. Looks like the price to buy is probably at US$68 and not US$64. Let's see what happens after the cold weather.

2) Gold - US$1090 from US$ 1052 090 last week. Looks like it may not touch US$850 after all. I'm now waiting for US$1020. In addition, the Chinese would be buying less gold in the Year of the Tiger as there would be less marriages. Diamonds should also be hit as well.

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well. Still waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 3018 from 2939 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. Market will be closed for a week. When it opens, people will no longer remeber the 0.5% increase on Friday.

5) HK Equities - 20269 from 19665 last week. Position in AMVIG and new positions in Fosun, GCL-Poly and Asia Cassava. Strong Support at 19,000.

6) HK IPO - Did not apply for any HK IPOs. The newcomers, IMM and Chu Kong were also weak this week

7) Spore Equities - 2759 from 2684 last week. Support at 2625. Initiated a small position in Capital Malls Asia to follow their story.

8) US Equities - 1076 from 1066 last week. Support at 1035 and then 995. Still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 10092 from 10057 last week. Support @ 9850, 9075. A lot of newsletters are recommending Japan. Inflows into Japan for the 7th week.

10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - A 10% change on a Sin$1.5m investment property is Sin$150,000. So which direction do you wanna bet ?

11) Swine Flu - Weather turning colder again but it's probably a non-event now

12) Emerging Markets - Funds Outflow of US$2.9b this week compared to outflow of US$1.6b last week. However, the amount is very small compared to the daily turnover of the various markets.

13) Iran - Obama has mentioned that there would be more sanctions

14) Hedge Funds - Deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010. Anyway, I have not seen any news on any significant redemption for this quarter.

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - How much longer can the Americans and the Japanese, keep their interest rates at close to zero ? China, Australia, Norway etc. will probably continue with their series of tightening.
..
16) USD - 80.41 from 80.38 last week. Waiting for the 50% retracement of about 82.

17) Trade War - Will it escalate into something bigger ? And the Dalai Lama meeting next week may not help things either.


Anyway, the Year of Tiger is here. It's time to celebrate again. Ain't it great ? We get to celebrate two New Years, compared to other cultures.

May you all be always Healthy, Wealthy, Happy & Lucky in the Year of the Tiger ! Gong Xi Fa Cai !


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Symbols on Threads - I will try to put a symbol next to a thread in the forum, to symbolize my feelings towards that topic eg. question mark, warning, heart ( for something I like ) etc. If you do not agree with me on the symbol used, please do feel free to send me a PM

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button ? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.