Aspellian's Garden

[kennynah]

But who am I to argue with Warren Buffet??

becos you can....

[Aspellian]

But who am I to argue with Warren Buffet??

becos you can....

Thanks for empowering me.

I am only using WB as my Due Diligence advisor. WB has his own fair share of mistakes too.

[lithium]

Let's find and study these great companies together! And hopefully make fortunes and achieve financial freedom together!

Hi Lithium!

I still have much to learn from you and the brothers here. Currently zero knowledge on HK stocks....

Huat Chai to you too!

I no expert leh....... only 1 year experience with HK stocks........ we learn together ok. It's boring to dig alone.

[kennynah]

It's boring to dig alone.

depends on what kinda "digging" we talking about ....wahahahaha....some form of digging preferably is done individually....

[lithium]

Very yellow....... wahahahaha

[winston]

Hi Aspellian,

I just visited your garden to get some ideas. Any new fruits or vegetables that you growing ?





Thanks and take care,
Winston

[Aspellian]

Oh dear! I am caught by the Landlord for not maintaining my garden!!

What better way to start off the garden thread with a reflection of past year performance (or lack of):

1) I am shake out by the worst of the crisis - offloaded at the worst time.
Hindsight - cut loss and never average down till underwear also gone

2) I missed the boat completely when market turned up in March cos i dun even dare look at the market (i am a typical textbook retail investor - hope i learn to be just a bit smarter)
Hindsight - Now i am tracking using Canslim since July and practised certain crucial rules eg. never fight market and always be in tune with market pulse

3) Overly excited about Canslim and over optimistic (based on textbook and theory) - but when comes to actual investments - emotions overrule.
Hindsight - the greatest enemy is not the market but oneself. I have never learnt so much about myself before. Now i know better

4) Risk and reward management - i need to get that under proper scrutiny. Need to take responsibility and accountability. Be patient and not greedy.

5) Never fight against what is tried and tested (by the experts). Follow the rules and keep the rules simple. Previously i have too many complicated rules and i end up not following them. Keep a 10 commandaments of investment - main purpose is to keep you out of harm's way.

6) not all is bad, something good is that I am able to seek out what potentially could be good stocks. But too bad I never follow through and always hoping that i can get back at the price when i first followed (after the prices shoot up).
Hindsight - Follow your intuition - research thoroughly on each stock you deemed good enough and ACT on it when the time is right - invest with conviction (with the market wind behind you)

7) Trim the garden often - i end up tracking too many stocks - every other companies seem to have something good... take up too much of management's time - overdiversification of efforts... nothing is achieved
Hindsight - track a max of 10 stocks actively. with max of 10 stocks on a less active radar. always trim this list and see which to drop and which to continue with.

8) Have a balance view and not be sway - not to listen to rumours or friends' hot tips (unless its really compelling with key criterias met). very often, time, effort and $ is spent chasing the price. your own watchlist is probably much better! also by the time rumours reached you, their purchase price is much lower. bragging only start after there's profits to brag about!

9) read widely - spend more efforts in doing so.

10) Be serious about investing.

Keep smiling always! Life is a journey, it will be wonderful to look back in 30 years time on what has been achieved and the key turning points in life. Each of us walk our own path. Walk the path with light-heartedness and enjoy the every step, hearing the leaves crunching sound. listen to the wind in the ears. feel the movement of one's hair with the breeze. Be calm, peaceful and filled with joy, delight and laughter!

Keep smiling always!

[Aspellian]

Previous step
There's many signs before that of market topping. but i was impatient, greedy and afraid of missing the boat.
climb in, gain some and knock out by cut loss. Only comforting point is i stick to my cut-loss this time round. Was a struggle as I hope (price will rebound) when i should fear that it will gap down and compound the loss. let this be a good reminder:

1) be patient - listen to the wiser folks here, who are into cash, reading books, waiting for the correction - simply because what goes up MUSt come down.

2) Cut loss - that is your best friend. if cut loss reached, it showed - wrong pivot price, market sentiments changed and such, never fight the market.

Immediate step
- market now in correction. short when market rebound. there could be a bigger leg down.
- Short when rebound is to have margin of safety (previously i gancheong spider, i short immediately when market correct but it never went down further and i was again reluctant to cut loss, hoping that market will "listen to me")
- Be patient and wait for the big leg down. set a target profit price. dun be greedy. remind yourself that its hard to go long, even much harder to go short.
- Set a cut loss quantum. Especially so after you have the margin of safety. if market cheong up because china reassure all that interest rate hike will not hamper progress or obama said that he merely joked about curbing banks' operations or that Ben has the full support of all to continue as Federal Chairman because of his many sleepless nights sacrificing for the country. Just go along with the flow. DO NOT FIGHT THE MARKET.

Market is always rational - its human that is unpredictable and irrational!!!

Next step forward when market goes back up
market now in correction but it will go back up one day. be ready. bulk up on cash. get ready bullets. come up with a refreshed list of current leaders - those that seems reluctant to give up price, fresh investment stories that caught on, or buck the trend by going higher.
The risk is that i may mistaken past leaders as future leaders. what goes up high previously means that it will continue to go up higher. which is why its important to do FA - what are the prospects and catalysts going forward.

[winston]

Have a balance view and not be sway - not to listen to rumours or friends' hot tips (unless its really compelling with key criterias met). very often, time, effort and $ is spent chasing the price. your own watchlist is probably much better! also by the time rumours reached you, their purchase price is much lower. bragging only start after there's profits to brag about!

I struggle with this one as well. Once in a while, you do hear some rumor but you dont know how good is the info.

I normally try to really drill down and ask very specific questions eg. deadlines etc. If the guy cant answer my specific questions properly, I normally do not pursue it further.

If he can answer my questions properly with good details, I may then pursue it.

Finally, I think rumors are only useful if the market direction is in your favor

[Aspellian]

Have a balance view and not be sway - not to listen to rumours or friends' hot tips (unless its really compelling with key criterias met). very often, time, effort and $ is spent chasing the price. your own watchlist is probably much better! also by the time rumours reached you, their purchase price is much lower. bragging only start after there's profits to brag about!

I struggle with this one as well. Once in a while, you do hear some rumor but you dont know how good is the info.

I normally try to really drill down and ask very specific questions eg. deadlines etc. If the guy cant answer my specific questions properly, I normally do not pursue it further.

If he can answer my questions properly with good details, I may then pursue it.

Finally, I think rumors are only useful if the market direction is in your favor

what i struggle with is actually a loser's mindset. (so paisei to admit )... for eg. that friend tell you about XYZ stock. seems good on paper, but you didnt really drill in. then the price starts to move (or has already moved but moved higher).. then you are afraid that you may miss the boat because you didnt act on this "tip"...

which is why my new year resolution is to act only on my own tip! ie. even if its a valid rumour/tip, i must drilled in such that i have complete buy-in and subsequent purchase of stock based on my own understanding and analysis. not blindly follow down the dark trench...