by winston » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:04 pm
PREVIEW-TSMC, UMC Q3 net seen stronger on chip recovery
* What: TSMC, UMC, Chartered Semi Q3 earnings
* When: Chartered (Oct 23), UMC (Oct 28) and TSMC (Oct 29)
* Q3 results seen stronger than Q2 but Q4 seen weaker
* TSMC up 40 percent this yr, UMC shares more than double
By Baker Li TAIPEI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Top contract chipmaker TSMC <2330.TW> probably made its largest profit in nearly two years in the third quarter, and smaller rival UMC <2303.TW> is also likely to have booked a bigger profit on stronger chip sales.
Analysts expect the world's two biggest foundries to spend more money to boost capacity next year as they race to pump out advanced chips, even though fourth-quarter sales could weaken after a strong third quarter.
"The global macro economy will be getting better next year, and when consumers have deeper pockets, we are really optimistic about demand for three-C products," Nomura analyst Rick Hsu said, referring to computers, communications and consumer gadgets.
New technologies further cut manufacturing costs and help the foundries win new orders from clients, who are selling more powerful chips used in a new generation of personal computers, mobile phones and flat-screen TVs.
There's been a spate of bullish news from global technology firms. Intel's quarterly results and outlook surpassed analysts' forecasts [ID:nLE108041], while Apple's profits streaked past Wall Street forecasts. [ID:nN19395089] A global outsourcing trend could help boost foundry sales up by about a fifth next year, outpacing an estimated 8 percent rise for the whole semiconductor market, Hsu said.
Sector leader TSMC remains the top pick by many local and foreign brokerage houses in the $20 billion chip foundry market, thanks to a wider customer base and higher chip output from advanced process technology that yields fatter margins.
So far this year, TSMC's Taipei-listed shares have risen 40 percent and UMC shares more than doubled versus a nearly 70 percent jump in the main TAIEX index <.TWII>.
TSMC is expected to report a net profit of T$31.2 billion ($966 million) in July-September, higher than the second quarter's T$24.4 billion, while UMC could see its second straight quarterly profit, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Singapore's smaller rival Chartered Semiconductor could post a narrower loss for the third quarter.
In September, Abu Dhabi's state-owned ATIC offered to buy Chartered Semi, which is likely to be merged with California-based Globalfoundries and could create a major rival to TSMC and UMC.
Q3 PROFIT (LOSS) FORECASTS Net profit/loss Change (pct) Y/Y Q/Q
TSMC T$31,202 mln +2 +28
UMC T$3,649 mln -- +135
Chartered ($9.79 mln) -- --
NOTE - Both UMC and Chartered lost money in the third quarter of 2008, while UMC saw profits in the second quarter of 2009.
Source: Reuters
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"