Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[kennynah]

hi w,

i sure hope you have backups for all your posts...especially these posts in this thread... else, all your solid journals will be gone if anything untoward happens to this website..

[winston]

Ha Ha ... No backup. It's all inside the head so should be able to reproduce again in
30 mins. I more worried about the news / research materials on some of the companies that I follow ... Thanks, Winston

[winston]

TOL as of Sept 13, 2009:-

1) Oil - Expecting Oil to go lower. Will not chase CNOOC

2) Gold - Dont know why it's rising. Will not chase Zhaojin and Zijin (50% Copper)

3) Commodities - China has slowed down it's purchases. Will wait for the correction.

4) Shanghai & HK - have taken profits on China Mobile and Ajisen. Dont expect a steep crash on the SSE just before the 60th Anniversary.

5) China Economic News - Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

6) Macau - Still cant find any good counters at at a fair price.

7) Japan - With a new government, where are the investment opportunities? If interest rates goes up, what would be the opportunities ?

8) HK IPO - Already applied for China All Access. Will probably apply for SinoPharm and Metallurgical Corp of China. Not sure about China Lilang.

9) Spore Equities - Still no good investment ideas

10) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years but there seems to be a lot of liquidity around. Am not expecting a big drop or a big rise either.

11) Swine Flu - Winter will be here in a few months

12) Mutual Funds - End Sept Window Dressing for 3Q 2009. Will this time be different ?

13) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption

14) Properties ( China, HK & Spore ) - I think it has gone up too much too fast

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[winston]

TOL as of Sept 19, 2009:-

1) Oil - Expecting Oil to go lower. Will not chase CNOOC

2) Gold - Very strong. Will not chase Zhaojin and Zijin (50% Copper)

3) Steel - Prices are dropping in China. Not sure of it's impact on Coking Coal

4) Commodities - China has slowed down it's purchases. Will wait for the correction.

5) Shanghai - Public holiday from Oct 1 to 11. I think there would be some selling before the holidays as people dont want to have a big holding over the holidays. In addition, people are a bit jittery on whether the authorities would continue to support the market after the 60th Anniversary.

6) HK - I have taken profits on A50 China Tracker 2823. Bought China Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile ( again ) and added to BBMG.

7) China Economic News - Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

8) Macau - Will not chase the Macau plays

9) Japan - If interest rate is going up here, where are the opportunities ?

10) HK IPO - Took profit on China Access. Already applied for SinoPharm and Metallurgical Corp of China. Not too much funds left to apply for Peak Sports and China South City

11) Spore Equities - Still no good investment idea

12) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years. In the meantime, I'm expecting the US market to be range bound until the next big catalyst

13) Swine Flu - It's starting to get cold at night in the Northern countries. Winter will be here in a few months. I would be a bit careful if investing in the Airlines, Hotels and any Tourism related stock

14) Mutual Funds - End Sept Window Dressing for 3Q 2009. Will this time be different ?

15) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption

16) Properties ( China, HK & Spore ) - I think it has gone up too much too fast

17) Trade spat between China & US - I think China will continue to buy Treasury Bills

18) Iran - In Obama's speech on the European Missile Defence Shield, every other sentence contains the word, "Iran". Are they planning to take out the Nuclear Sites in Iran? If they are, then the timing is lousy as it would reunite the opposing forces in Iran.

19) North Korea - Kim Jong il mentioned that he will work towards Nuclear disarmament

20) Signature - have changed my signature to remind myself of what Jim Rogers said:-
"Wait till there's money lying in the corner and all you have to do is just go over there, to pick it up. Do nothing in the meantime."

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[Aspellian]

Hi winston bro,

what's your thoughts on US xmas sales period? i read that it will make or break the uptrend - if US consumers do not buy.

[winston]

Hi A,

Assuming that the US Unemployment rate is now about 17%, there's still about 83% who still have a job and can afford a Christmas present. However, they could be buying less expensive gifts compare to previous years ...

If fast food companies in China are seeing a 5% to 10% decline in revenue, then I think it's reasonable to see a 10% to 20% reduction in revenue by the US retailers and any other companies, that are related to the US Xmas Shopping business eg. Amazon, Fedex etc.

Take care,
Winston

[winston]

TOL as of Sept 27, 2009:-

1) Oil - Expecting Oil to go lower. Will look at CNOOC when Oil is at around US$62

2) Gold - Expecting Gold to go lower. Will not chase Zhaojin and Zijin (50% Copper) at this level

3) Steel - Prices are dropping in China. What is it's impact on Coking Coal eg. Fushan Energy & Hidili ?

4) Commodities - China has slowed down it's purchases. Is the correction starting ?

5) Shanghai - Public holiday from Oct 1 to 11. I think there would be some selling before the holidays as people dont want to have a big position over the holidays. Would the market go up after the holidays ? Watching A50 China Tracker.

6) HK - Positions in China Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile, BBMG and RexLot.

7) China Economic News - Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

8) Macau - Will not chase the Macau plays. Wynn's IPO is also coming

9) Japan - Strong Yen will hurt exporters. I like Fast Retailing. Where are the other opportunities ?

10) HK IPO - Be cautious. Already applied for Peak Sports, China South City, Glorious Property & China Resources Cement. Another 5 in the next two days:-
a) China Vanadium - Not sure
b) Ausnutria - PE 18 to 25; Expensive; Rejected by US Stock-Market earlier. Why ?
c) Yingde Gas - Will probably Stag
d) Wynn's - Not sure; Expensive; Doubled the PE of Galaxy Entertainment;
e) Powerlong - PE 10 to 14; Looks Reasonable; May Stag

11) Spore Equities - Watching the laggards

12) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years. So where are the opportunities ? Expecting market to be range-bound.

13) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way. I would be a bit careful if investing in the Airlines, Hotels and any Tourism related stock

14) Mutual Funds - Sept Window Dressing for 3Q 2009

15) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption

16) Properties ( China, HK & Spore ) - I think it has gone up too much too fast

17) Trade spat between China & US - Will probably not escalate

18) Iran - In Obama's speech at the G20, it sounds like to they are going to increase sanctions against Iran. What are the consequences ? Are they going to push the price of crude down first before the sanctions ?

19) Hedge Funds - Oct 15 deadline for redemptions for Jan 1, 2010


The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[winston]

Dear All,

I have split out the discussion on RexLot 555 and started a new thread on it.

Take care,
Winston

[winston]

TOL on my birthday :-

1) Commodities - Expecting Oil, Gold, Steel, Copper to drop. Will wait.

2) Shanghai - May buy the A50 next week. Depends on how HK & the Dow is behaving.

3) HK - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile and BBMG. Took profit on RexLot

4) China Economic News - Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

5) Japan - Strong Yen will hurt exporters. Time to look at their competitors.

6) HK IPO - Only applied for Yingde Gas. Did not apply for China Vanadium, Ausnutria, Wynn's and Powerlong. Some people who borrowed a lot on margin, to apply for the IPOs, were forced to sell at substantial losses on the first day.

7) Spore Equities - Watching the laggards but I think it's too dangerous to buy.

8) US Equities - Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years. Expecting market to be range-bound with a negative bias

9) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way. I would be a bit careful if investing in the Airlines, Hotels and any Tourism related stock

10) Emerging Markets - No news about any huge redemption

11) Iran - What are the consequences of a sanction ?

12) Hedge Funds - Oct 15 deadline for redemptions for Jan 1, 2010

13) Interest rates - What can cause an unexpected spike ?


On Birthdays, Christmas, New Years and CNYs, I tend to realize that I'm getting older. Some of my friends have already passed away. With the remaining years left, what do I need to do, besides trying to make some money to take care of the family?

Mohamad was a rich businessman and when he turned 40, he was asked to do the Divine's work. I waited on my 40th birthday and nothing happened. Now that, I'm way past 40, nothing has happened either

I have read up on all of the world's religion, as well as the works of most great philosophers but I still have not really found a path that's for me. Is there a need to continue looking for that path ? Am I looking for that path in the wrong places ? Am I trying too hard ? Or was that path always in front of me but I was too busy running around, to notice it ?

Maybe it's time to take a break from everything, to recharge, to reflect, to contemplate, to let the Inner Voice tell me what to do next ...

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy, sell or how to lead your life. Use the info above at your own risk. Please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments ..

[Poles]

Happy Birthday Winston.
Wish You Huat Huat Huat!