Not vested. From DMG:-
ASL Marine: A record FY08 (BUY\S$1.04\Target S$1.56)
Serene Lim (62323897, [email protected])
Record FY08 earnings. ASL Marine (ASL) delivered a stellar set of FY08 results, well within
our full year estimates. Revenue rose 26% YoY to S$400.4m with growth across all three core
divisions: shipbuilding (+21%), shiprepair (+57%), shipchartering (+22%). Gross profit surged
39% YoY attributed to progressive recognition of more and higher value shipbuilding contracts
undertaken (+47%), increased number of higher value shiprepair and ship conversion jobs
(+99%) as well as expanded fleet size for ship chartering (8%).
Gross profit margins recorded improvements for shipbuilding (190 bps to 10.3%) and shiprepair (650 bps to 31.1%) but lower margins for shipchartering (-390 bhps to 29.9%) due to lower utilisation rate and higher bunker fuel cost. In view of the record results, ASL is proposing a total dividend of 4 S¢ per share from a payout of 20%, translating into a dividend yield of 3.8%.
Rough seas ahead? The management guided that 48% of ASL’s orderbook of S$693m as at 30 Jun 08, or S$333m, would be recognised in FY09. The remaining S$360m would be
recognised in FY10 and beyond. While this should provide short-term relief, we remain,concerned as ASL’s long-term fundamentals which could be marred by a capacity glut in the offshore transportation industry. Nonetheless, the management noted still healthy enquiries for the offshore support vessels, with strong demand stemming from the Middle East and India.
Outlook for shiprepair continues to remain positive underpinned by tight global yards’ capacity crunch and stringent maritime regulations fuelling more conversion jobs. ASL is currently expanding its existing graving drydock and adding two new ones to accommodate repair works of larger vessels. We believe only the ship chartering division may face further margins compression when an influx of new vessels (particularly AHTS) enter the market in 2009, coupled with higher bunker fuel and labour costs.
Strong balance sheet to stomach high capex. The major capex for FY09 include the
enhancement of ASL’s shipyard capabilities (total investment amounting to S$30m) and fleet
expansion plans totalling S$67m. We estimate FY09 capex to be approximately S$100m which
ASL could easily fund through its strong operating cashflow and/or debt financing, based on its
low current net gearing ratio at 0.14x.
Nonetheless, with a strong balance sheet, we believe the S$300m Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme established on 7 May 08 is a prudent effort from the management to preserve cash and explore additional financing source.
Ascribing lower valuation parameter amid weak market sentiment, thus reducing target
price. Pending the outcome of the divestment of ASL Energy, we are keeping to our forecast
that ASL would record a one-time gain of S$9.6m in FY09. We have also introduced our FY10
estimates and rolled over our valuations to FY09F recurring EPS.
We have pegged our valuation parameter of 6.85x (an average of its Singapore and Malaysia peers) from 8.5x previously as a result of sector de-rating, deriving a target price of S$1.56 (from S$1.83 previously). We believe the potential upside of 50% over ASL’s yesterday’s closing price provides a good buying opportunity into a company with prudent and quality management, strong balance sheet and clear business direction. Maintain BUY.