Flu ( incl Swine, Bird etc ) 01 (Apr 09 - Sep 12)

[millionairemind]

Obese Exposed as Swine Flu Collides With Fat Epidemic (Update1)
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By Jason Gale

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected characteristic has emerged among many swine flu victims who become severely ill: They are fat.

Doctors tracking the pandemic say they see a pattern in hospital reports from Glasgow to Melbourne and from Santiago to New York. People infected with the bug who have a body mass index greater than 40, deemed morbidly obese, suffer respiratory complications that are harder to treat and can be fatal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... .7Dg3Z_msI

[winston]

The numbers are getting big. Luckily, it's not like SARS ...

Flu death toll at 700, school closures an option: WHO

GENEVA (Reuters) - The H1N1 virus has killed more than 700 people worldwide since emerging in April, and countries could consider closing schools to slow its spread, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.

The WHO, whose previous death toll was 429 two weeks ago, also said it was up to national health authorities to decide what measures they impose to slow the spread of the new strain.

British researchers writing in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases said on Monday that governments needed to draft plans for when and how to close schools if the swine flu pandemic worsens.

"School closure is one of the mitigation measures that could be considered by countries," WHO spokeswoman Alphaluck Bhatiasevi told a news briefing.

"As WHO has been saying, different countries would be facing the pandemic at different levels at different times. So it is really up to countries to consider what mitigation measures suit them in regard to the situation in individual countries."

The U.N. agency, which declared an H1N1 influenza pandemic on June 11, said last week it was the fastest-moving pandemic ever and now pointless to count every case.

It told countries to stop reporting individual cases and concentrate on mitigation measures and detecting any unusual patterns of disease or spike in rates of absenteeism.

Some 125,000 laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported worldwide as of Tuesday, Bhatiasevi told Reuters.

A network of independent experts is doing mathematical modeling studies to project what kind of cost-effective and beneficial mitigation measures countries can implement, according to the spokeswoman.

The WHO is coordinating the group, composed of mathematicians, epidemiologists and virologists, she said.

The new flu strain can be treated by antivirals such as Roche Holding's Tamiflu or GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza, but many patients recover without medical treatment.

Flu experts say at least 1 million people are infected in the United States alone.

[millionairemind]

Published July 23, 2009

Two more die after H1N1 infection
A 13-year-old boy and 55-year-old man both had other health problems

(SINGAPORE) A boy, 13, and a man, 55, both died yesterday after being infected by the H1N1 strain of flu, raising the death toll from the virus here to three.

Two women, both 42, were in critical condition yesterday, including one just admitted to hospital. The health ministry again urged those who develop flu-like symptoms to seek treatment early. It said the boy, who had epilepsy, died yesterday morning after prolonged seizures, with the H1N1 infection a contributing factor.

He was admitted to National University Hospital on Sunday with a fever and a cough. After suffering cardio-respiratory arrest in the hospital's emergency department, he was put into its intensive care unit the same day, where he later died.

The 55-year-old man suffered from motor neuron disease, which causes muscles to waste away. He died yesterday afternoon at Changi General Hospital, where he was admitted on Saturday.

Doctors said he died due to severe pneumonia with advanced motor neuron disease and H1N1 flu.

Last Saturday, a 49-year-old man with diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol was the first to die here from causes related to H1N1. He died of a heart attack, with severe pneumonia and an underlying H1N1 infection contributory factors, the health ministry said.

[winston]

Return of the Swine Flu: Part 1 by Ryan Cole

- Why the Swine Flu Isn’t Less Scary

In Bangkok, 435 schools and 200 nurseries are closing. They’ll be shut down for the next week, by orders of the Bangkok Municipal Authority.

What prompted this? Simple - H1N1, the swine flu.

Here in the western world - and, more importantly, the northern hemisphere - the swine flu is considered passé. It came around, everyone got frightened, it left, hardly anyone got really sick or died, another big nothing.

Wrong. For a few reasons.

1. This is just the first round.

When the Spanish flu traveled the globe for the first time, it appeared just another flavor of flu (we didn’t have the technology at the time, but now we know it was constructed, chemically, much like the swine flu today). It wasn’t until after mixing with other strains, increasing its virulence and deadliness, that the Spanish flu killed more people than World War I.

The Spanish flu had three rounds, as most do. The second and third were the worst, as they usually are with deadly outbreaks. In other words, the swine flu was a burgeoning threat last winter, but this winter is when we really find out what kind of killer it is. There’s no way to know which way H1N1 will break - towards greater virulence and more acute symptoms, or calming into a regular flu.

We do know, though, that people are preparing.

2. The swine flu is already a pandemic.

Contrary to popular belief, an pandemic doesn’t just mean something that leaves a path of destruction wherever it goes. No, in truth, a pandemic just means there no longer is any possibility of controlling the spread, and the spread will be rapid. The United States already has a million cases (and that was before the swine flu became pandemic). In the southern hemisphere or other spots where it’s currently flu season - like Thailand - there’s currently no way to stop the spread of this virus.

The best the authorities can do is react in piecemeal jerks - like locking down an entire city’s school system. This will help retard any outbreak… but it can no longer prevent further outbreaks. That’s quite important - more on that later.

The biggest problem with the current swine flu is humans have no natural immunity to it. This current version is a mix of the bird flu from a few years back, and two separate strains of swine flu. We’ve never encountered something like this before - so we don’t have any defenses. In short, not only is the spread going to be unchecked, but almost everyone exposed to it will likely catch it.

In the case of the Spanish flu, something like 25% of the world population caught it. The death toll is notoriously tricky to measure, but estimates have it from a low of 20 million, to over 200 million. Most scientists believe the true number was between 50 and 100 million.


3. The swine flu is already quite deadly.

Smarty-pants like to point out that the regular flu killed many, many more people last season than the swine flu. Of course it did - there were many, many, many more cases of the regular flu. It’s just a numbers game.

It’s worth remembering, though, that the regular flu kills about 2% of the people it infects - mostly those already weak, infirm, very young or very old. The swine flu, however, kills around 5% of those who get it - and the deaths tend to be young adults, prime-of-life types, because of something called a cytokine storm.

Basically, a cytokine storm is an overreaction of the body’s immune system. The virus is so damaging, and so uncontrollable, that the body launches a scorched earth campaign. Sadly, because they are healthy and with strong immune systems, young-adult bodies tend to kill themselves waging the war.

That’s exactly how the Spanish flu worked.

In fact, if you’re still skeptical of the similarities between the two, consider this - living survivors of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic are proving immune to the swine flu. It’s so similar, that the old antibodies produced to combat the Spanish flu also work on the swine flu.

All that’s worrying, but really, if only 1 out of 20 cases end up dying, that’s not that bad a kill rate, right? Well, consider the Spanish Flu killed about 1 out of every 40 in America - and the swine flu hasn’t yet realized its full potential - and you can see why smart scientists are still manning the klaxons.

Scary stuff indeed.

But all is not lost - as I’ll show you in Part two of the swine flu series, things aren’t as grim as they sound… and there’s plenty of money-making opportunities that are arising out of this scare. Stay tuned.

[winston]

Return of the Swine Flu: Part 2 by Ryan Cole

- Profiting from Protection from Swine Flu

In Part 1 of this series, I discussed why the swine flu is about to come back, stronger than ever. In this part, I’d like to tell you what I’ll be doing about it.

First, I’m stockpiling some good masks, because we’re going to run out - supply isn’t anywhere close to satisfying demand, even in a regular flu season.

Throw in a large scale public panic… and you see the problem.

Next, when flu season comes around, I’m washing my hands after touching just about anything, and I’ll probably avoid crowded, closed spaces for a bit.

But that’s just what I’m doing about my health, here’s what I’m doing financially…

I’m thinking about how to make money here, not because of some morbid fascination - after all, even with all the scary stats above, the swine flu is unlikely to reach its deadliest potential, and we’re still unlikely to have a Spanish flu, redux - not least of all because our medicine is so much better now.

But one thing I can assure you - we will act to prevent the worst from happening. And that action can make smart investors a lot of money.

The obvious play is vaccines. Novartis (NYSE: NVS), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) are the solid plays here, with orders already pouring in from governments around the globe.

All received a bump when the WHO declared the swine flu a pandemic, but they’ve leveled off since. Don’t let that deter you - as we approach flu season, and the orders start to get filled, investors will remember who’s making money out of this scare.

You also might want to consider 3M (NYSE: MMM), the makers of the N95 mask, considered the best (and perhaps the only cheap, easily available protective mask that will prove useful against the virus). Again, even if there’s not another single case of swine flu, you can bet cautious folks will be buying out the stock of N95s this winter.

Finally, there are two plays that you should keep an eye on - but certainly not act on yet. One - investing in pork.

If the swine flu pandemic hits big, we’ll see a massive culling of pigs. This is a bit risky - some folks won’t want to eat pork, out of fear, even though you can’t catch the flu from eating pig meat - but, even if demand is suppressed, supply is likely to collapse. And, given the global nature of this pandemic, the supply might be down for years, with few breeding pairs remaining.

Mid-term, investing in pork could be a real winner, depending how this thing goes.

And, finally, I’m going to watch carefully businesses dependent on large numbers of people working in close proximity.

We just saw school closings. In similar scares, we often have factory closings. And, if it looks like that might happen, I’m going to start shorting manufacturers. The swine flu is going to hurt production badly, even if we only have a bad scare or two. And, with the economy as precarious as it is now, a scare or two might be enough to turn back any gains the economy is making on this recession.

Regardless, you need to keep your eye on this flu, and the government reactions to it. There are a few things - like vaccine orders and preventative masks - that we know will flourish without doubt. There are some others - like pork futures and manufacturing productivity - that could easily be hit hard, if we get a scare or two.

And, if manufacturing gets kicked now, while it’s already down, watch out below. The flu doesn’t need to kill many to create another, killer pandemic - this one economic.

I’ll be watching closely, and I suggest you do the same.


( I think airlines and hotels as well )

[winston]

Be careful if you are running to get your HINI vaccine

It's like a scene from a summer blockbuster movie. In a grim moment, one official reports to another official that the (fill in the blank: monster, robot, alien, force of nature) is "unstoppable."

That's the word that World Health Organization officials recently used to describe the H1N1 virus. Unstoppable. And with that, the WHO and the CDC have officially started their joint campaign to ratchet up the H1N1 fear factor in earnest – preparing everyone for the moment when we'll be called on to line up and get our H1N1 shots.

Reuters lent a hand with the fear mongering by tossing up a scary number: "The CDC estimates at least a million people are infected in the United States."

And that's true. That's their estimate. But Reuters doesn't mention that confirmed cases of H1N1 in the U.S. number less than 28,000. So where did those other 972,000 cases come from? Math! As I noted in a previous e-Alert, a CDC official used "mathematical modeling" to produce an estimate of over one million.

We used to call that "creative accounting."

The Reuters article primarily focuses on the burning need to produce millions of H1N1 vaccine doses:
WHO officials give "full go ahead" to manufacture H1N1 vaccines.
Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny – WHO director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research: "All countries need access to vaccine."
Dr. Kieny: "Healthcare workers should be immunized in all countries."
Most at risk: younger people, healthy adults, and the severely obese.
But in 18 paragraphs, the Reuters article doesn't once mention that that the H1N1 vaccine is, so far, completely untested for efficacy or safety. And that's exactly the scenario the WHO and the CDC would like everyone to follow: Fear H1N1 (Unstoppable! Kills the healthy!), but don't worry your pretty little head about the vaccine.

In 1976, about 46 million Americans received a vaccine for a virus that was also called "swine flu." Within three years, thousands of people were suing the government, claiming the vaccine prompted neurological damage. About 300 of those cases ended in death.

I predict Reuters and other major news outlets aren't going to pay much attention to the lessons of the '76 fiasco as we all sit back and watch the WHO/CDC summer blockbuster: "Pandemic Pandemonium"

It's unstoppable!

Jenny Thompson, HSI

[millionairemind]

Aug 4, 2009
Beware Tamiflu side effects
By Judith Tan
DOCTORS have been alerted to let patients on Tamiflu and their caregivers know that there is a remote possibility of an adverse reaction to the drug, such as sudden and severe changes in behaviour.

Since 2005, six patients, most under the age of 16, have became disoriented or incoherent after taking the anti-viral drug.

Four of these occurred just last month and this, following widespread use of Tamiflu against the H1N1 bug.

[millionairemind]

Jialat...

2 more H1N1 deaths
By Jessica Jaganathan

TWO more people with Influenza A (H1N1) have died in Singapore after developing complications.

They were a 51-year-old Indian woman with Down's Syndrome and high body mass index (BMI) and a 78-year-old man with no medical history.

This brings the total death tally from H1N1 to eight in three weeks.

The woman with Down's syndrom died on Wednesday afternoon from pneumonia. She had gone to Tan Tock Seng Hospital's emergency department on that day after having flu-like symptoms for three days.

There, she had breathing difficulties and low blood pressure and died later.

The elderly man had no medical history and died on Thursday morning after having fever and shortness of breath for a day.

While in the intensive care unit, his condition worsened and he died from a heart attack, with pneumonia as a contributing factor.

[kennynah]

8 only...it is ok lah.... we have such a BIG population.....1 million foreigners...what's just 8 ???

[winston]

Pregnant Women & Tamiflu

There's no cure for stupid. And there's about to be a lot of stupid going around.

The Associated Press recently reported that pregnant women who pick up the H1N1 virus are at particularly high risk of developing complications that require hospitalization.

So CDC researchers got right on that and analyzed the first 34 cases of H1N1 in pregnant women.

Their recommendation: Tamiflu should be given to pregnant women suspected of having H1N1. Furthermore, this should be done BEFORE tests confirm the diagnosis!

And what could possibly go wrong? No one knows.

According to the "Patient Information" sheet supplied by Roche, the maker of Tamiflu, "Tamiflu is normally not recommended for use during pregnancy or nursing, as the effects on the unborn child or nursing infant are unknown."

This is just a glimpse of how the H1N1 scare could play out.

If confirmed cases of H1N1 actually do pick up as we move into autumn, look for the CDC to come down with a really advanced case of stupid: crazy stupid.

Jenny Thompson, HSI