Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[memphisb]

He is like Soras. International Worldwide.

We need hints. Short or long

[winston]

let's see....which other countries have you not covered

Hmm.... Yes, I dont know Latin America, Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa, Australia & NZ that well. That's a big chunk of the map

[winston]

We need hints. Short or long

Ha Ha ... If the TA experts are not able to predict the direction of HK or the US consistently, what chance do I have ?

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil @ US$68: Strong resistance. Sold CNOOC. There was a CS report that says that CNOOC is being priced at US$80 Oil.

2) Gold @ US$936: Support at US$875; Resistance at US$965; Jewellers are not buying. Watching Zhaojin & Zijin(50% copper). Boring ..

3) Commodity ETFs. Too boring. Better to invest in shares of Commodity companies.

4) China: Consumers, Fast Food, Internet, Infrastructure, Green Energy - Too expensive

5) Shanghai & HK - Very strong. How long can the euphoria last? Sold all my HK stocks. The market seems to believe that China can save the world. If that's the case, maybe the US markets will now be following the actions in HK & Shanghai . Do you remember the time when the US dropped a few hundred points because Shanghai dropped 9% ? What will happen if HK does drop 15% ( which is just last 2 week's rise ? ). Will you be safe in Singapore Equities or US Equities ? Or would you be buying on dips ?

6) HK IPO - Stagging on BBMG. Will be listing on July 29

7) Spore - Still no good investment ideas

8) US Equities - Bulls are winning. What's going to happen after earnings season? Expecting the US economy to be weak for a few years. I think Roubini is right.

9) Swine Flu - Looks like it's not currently a threat. Let's see what happens during Winter.

10) US Dollar - What is the alternative if it tanks ? Commodities? Gold ? CDN? AUD? Euro? RMB? Sin$? Expecting the USD to slowly depreciate against the Commodity Currencies, RMB over the next few years. Boring ...

11) Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Russia & India - Will have to wait for a better entry point.

12) During the AFC, the market dropped for 1.5 years and then rebounded for the next 1.5 years. A typical "V". Thereafter, it trended downwards for 3 years ( due to poor earnings ) before resuming it's climb for 5 years ( earnings driven ). I think this time would not be too different. The rebound based on perceived "cheap valuation" and liquidity has occured. For this rally to be sustainable, there must be improved earnings..

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[helios]

TOL:-

7) Spore - Still no good investment ideas

8) US Equities - Bulls are winning. What's going to happen after earnings season? Expecting the US economy to be weak for a few years. I think Roubini is right.

9) Swine Flu - Looks like it's not currently a threat. Let's see what happens during Winter.

Election is coming and might have an influence on Singapore Equities. It might happen within the coming year ahead, if not 2 years' timeframe from now ... Marine IR is scheduled for Q1 launch + YOG in August, etc. If Singapore equity is to be positioned for a rally, most probably it'd be end of 2010?

Don't think Swine Flu is a threat; the industry players have obtained necessary antibodies to be manufactured ... just need to wait for the opportunity to make more $$$ ... ... as mentioned, this Flu cycle is too short, people remembered their lesson learnt during SARS period ...

[winston]

1) Election is coming and might have an influence on Singapore Equities. It might happen within the coming year ahead, if not 2 years' timeframe from now ...
2) Marine IR is scheduled for Q1 launch + YOG in August, etc.

1) Yes, very good observation. Normally, the GLCs will rise before an election
2) Not sure that the Marina IR will have an impact on Spore Equities.

[helios]

Normally, the GLCs will rise before an election.

Yuppz, i attended a pre-election session yesterday ... it was a briefing about logistics & readiness ...

Which are GLCs? ha ...

[winston]

But this round, they have already risen already.

Unless there's a very steep drop, they may not be moving that much from here ...

[helios]

I think, we can do homework on those 'soarers' that were influenced from last election.

As i was very young then, i can't recall these events ...

I don't think election will be any sooner, perhaps end 2010. There are wild fires now, e.g. how to gear up/ engaging new media for the voters, etc.

[kennynah]

1) Yes, very good observation. Normally, the GLCs will rise before an election

this one ??