AAR & TOL 02 (Nov 08 - Jul 09)

[winston]

Hi K,

Sorry, the above example is not a good one. Let's try another one:-

The Chinese Stimulus Program ( Direct Cause ) will create a lot of demand for Cement ( Direct Effect ).

Although Electricity is being used to make cement, it's only an Indirect Beneficiary.

Therefore, one should buy the Cement companies ( Direct Effect ) rather than the Independent Power Producers ( Secondary Effects ).

[kennynah]

W : you champion lah.....

[LenaHuat]

The Chinese Stimulus Program ( Direct Cause ) will create a lot of demand for Cement ( Direct Effect ).

Taiwan's Ku family built a big cement factory in Nanning. The guy who restored "XiaoTianDe" in Shanghai has a big cement investment in ChongQing. Looks like China's "Look West" economic plan is staring at success.

[winston]

The bigger cement companies are Anhui Conch and CNBM. I think the Taiwanese own Asia Cement. There's also some smaller players like Shanshui Cement. All have run up considerably ..

[winston]

TOL:-

Need to remind myself of the following:-

Do not be hung up by labels on whether this is a Bear Market Rally or Bull Market Rally. It has been a rally, period.

People who missed the rally is calling it a Bear Market rally.

How does one know whether it's a rally ? Simple. People who sold are watching prices go up after they have sold.

In the absence of a strong catalyst that would trigger a steep correction, it may be advisable to have a tight Trailing Stop Loss on your existing positions. Mine is 2% of the top ..

First Stage of the Rally is to buy on steep discounts to underlying value. ( Not too good at this as I dont know how to arrive at the IV ).

Second Stage of the rally would be driven by earnings. I think we have already pass Stage One. When would Stage Two start?

And what do you do in between stages ?

[helios]

TOL:-

First Stage of the Rally is to buy on steep discounts to underlying value. ( Not too good at this as I dont know how to arrive at the IV ).

Second Stage of the rally would be driven by earnings. I think we have already pass Stage One. When would Stage Two start?

And what do you do in between stages ?

How does Winston know we have passed Stage One? Gut feel???

[winston]

Rise was too fast, too steep .. Cant really see any steep discount to IV out there anymore eg. Properties, Banks etc

[helios]

Real estate?

[winston]

TOL:-

The climax of a rally, normally comes on a blow-out, on high volume.

Does today's action in HK & Spore qualify as a blow-out ?

[millionairemind]

TOL:-

The climax of a rally, normally comes on a blow-out, on high volume.

Does today's action in HK & Spore qualify as a blow-out ?

Typically a blow out is when it cheong on super high volume and then reverses, either closing flat or negative.

Today one stock, Genting, accounted for almost 1/3 of total value done on SGX.