Flu ( incl Swine, Bird etc ) 01 (Apr 09 - Sep 12)

[helios]

There was this small stock that made masks and gloves listed on the SGX or Sesdaq. Really soared during SARs. Anyone remember its name?

Medtecs went up quite abit during SARS and fell quickly as well.

Am not vested in Medtecs and will not be investing in them.

Also, a lot of the drugs companies listed in HK are up 20% already ..

Today, I heard of a proposal from a biotech co....a "tropical viral FlU kit", ... total investment a few million??? ...

their existing FLU kits are selling like hot cakes!!

[LenaHuat]

The Taiwanese ex-Director of their version of the CDC during SARS predicted that this was only the first wave of outbreak of the H1N1 virus. Some 6 months later, around autumn, a second more serious outbreak was expected. The 'flu' virus, like SARS, is expected to become more active and virulent when the weather turns cold.

No wonder my HK soothsayer predicted a very major global calamity in Oct 2009.

[millionairemind]

No wonder my HK soothsayer predicted a very major global calamity in Oct 2009.

Another repeat of Oct 2008???

Lets start brushing up our shorting skills and get our knives ready..

[helios]

The Taiwanese ex-Director of their version of the CDC during SARS predicted that this was only the first wave of outbreak of the H1N1 virus. Some 6 months later, around autumn, a second more serious outbreak was expected. The 'flu' virus, like SARS, is expected to become more active and virulent when the weather turns cold.

No wonder my HK soothsayer predicted a very major global calamity in Oct 2009.

Could be right, lady.

[helios]

anyway, i just got my 3rd bottle of Cough Syrup (been coughing about 3/52 liao) ... me having 'swine' flu too ...

[BlackCat]

All the cases outside Mexico have been mild. It may be that the Mexican strain is more deadly, or else there are many other unreported mild cases there.

May not be as detectable as SARs. Someone on CNA said that people carrying the virus may be contagious before symptoms start to appear. Travel restrictions not recommended by WHO because they are ineffective http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LS307127.htm.

These 2 things point to it having less impact than SARs, except on directly affected industries (travel, healthcare). But it would also point to it lasting longer.

Anyway, the market soon becomes 'immune' to the same bad news over and over again. If it doesn't fall in the first 2 week, especially from an overbought position, then when will it fall? I wait to see how the US mkt reacts tonite. So far its a non-event.

And Guardian has a waiting list for N95 masks. My gut feel is that this whole thing will blow over easily, but it would be nice to have 1 or 2 boxes at home

[BlackCat]

US mkts fall on lower vol for 2nd day (28-04-09): http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=475229

[winston]

From Health Science Institute:-

Don't Panic: 7 FACTS About 'Swine Flu'

With all the sensationalized news about the so-called swine flu flying around, I figured we'd better set all the facts straight.

So far, only 82 cases of so-called swine flu have been definitively identified worldwide, mostly in Mexico (26 confirmed, 7 deaths) and the U.S.(with 40 confirmed, no deaths). (Though about 1600 suspected cases, including 159 deaths, are reported in Mexico.) That does not add up to a pandemic swine flu outbreak.

This virus has nothing to do with swine. In fact, it hasn't been seen in a single animal. And you can't possibly get it from eating pork.
No existing vaccines can prevent this new flu strain. So no matter what you hear – even if it comes from your doctor – don't get a regular flu shot. They rarely work against seasonal flu…and certainly can't offer protection from a never-before- seen strain.

Speaking of this strain, it doesn't seem to have come on naturally. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), this particular strain has never before been seen in pigs or people. And according to Reuters, the strain is a 'genetic mix' of swine, avian and human flu. Was it created in a lab? We don't know yet.

The drug companies are getting excited…and that's never a good thing. According to the Associated Press at least one financial analyst estimates up to $388 million worth of Tamiflu sales in the near future – and that's without a pandemic outbreak.

Let's not forget that Tamiflu comes with its own problems, including side effects like nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, headache, dizziness, fatigue, cough…the very symptoms you're trying to avoid. And let's not forget that Japan banned this drug for children back in 2007, after links to suicidal behavior.

Vaccines for this flu strain probably won't have to jump through all those annoying hurdles like clinical trials for safety and effectiveness. That won't, however, stop the government from mandating the vaccine for all of us – a very likely scenario. And if the vaccines are actually harmful…killing people, for example…the vaccine makers will be immune from lawsuits.

[LenaHuat]

Hi SanSan MeiMei
Wish U a speedy recovery.

Hi Blackcat
Buy just 1 N95 mask and try wearing it for 1 day. I doubt U can get past 1 day.
During SARS, I tried it and could not get past 2 hours. Surgical marks are more bearable and comfortable.

[LenaHuat]

The fact that cases outside of Mexico are mild does not augur well. It could mean the really sick ones are hospitalized in Mexico, and interestingly the dead are between the ages of 20 to 50. Like SARS, it kills the young able-bodies adults.

Moreover, a low fatality rate at the initial outbreak is also not a good sign. It can mean a high number of carriers are walking around looking hale and hearty. A H1N1 carrier is infectious before symptoms surface.
A high fatality rate is a better sign of containment because the dead, if properly managed, do not spread the virus.