AAR & TOL 02 (Nov 08 - Jul 09)

[kennynah]

correct me if i am wrong....dongbei (north east economic region) <<liaoning, shenyang>> {besides exporting the greatest amount of girls to singapore for the sleaze trade}, is also the region that producers the most amount of coal in china...

therefore, if one is able to monitor the economic activities of shenyang...one can deduce the state of commodities (coal) health in china...fyi, in the recent years, the china central govt has pumped in tremendous amounts of money into dongbei; under the NorthEast Revitalisation program, to jumpstart the economy over there...

also, fyi...china declares it has ~USD1.95trillion in foreign reserves as of Mar09...

[winston]

1) Not sure what you are trying to get at..

2) If I want to monitor coal, I would look at their supply, demand, IPP usage, railway bottleneck, Aluminium & Steel Production, share prices of Yangzhoul Coal ( linked to Spot Prices ). China Coal and Shenghua etc..

[kennynah]

you know why you cant get what i am getting at ?

becos, my england louzy....

[winston]

Well, I'm not sure monitoring the sleaze trade in Singapore, would tell me much about whether Coal Prices is high or not ..

I understand the logic though ..... if there's money back home, why travel all the way to try to make money in Singapore ?

[kennynah]

no lah bro...... i was not drawing the parallel between shenyang exporting their girls and coal.... my england really lauzi...

i meant to state the fact that shenyang is the single largest coal producer in the whole of china....so, to be able monitor coal (as ONE proxy to the health of china) production will give a sense of where this commodity price is heading....and yeah...like i trade coal...so, yes, you are right... what am i talking about ???? wahahahaha...

[winston]

I would monitor things like electricity usage, income tax receipts, additional stimulus programs ( means economy is really not doing well ), # factories closing down, house prices in SZ & GZ ( export hub ), amount of military spending, interest rates, unemployment among the fresh graduates, number of empty offices in Lu Jia Zhui and Financial Street, the frequency of speeches by the politicians on how well the economy is doing, number of empty seats on the planes, my chances of being upgraded to a better hotel room, complaints by the cab drivers etc, petty crime rates etc ...

[kennynah]

you are right....why do i even bother about coal....fossilized nothings...hahahaha... admin...delete my posts above...extra spray for nothing...wahahahaha...

[winston]

TOL:-

1) If you are a short-term trader, the trend could be your friend

2) If you are a longer term investor, then taking a contrarian view could be the way to invest

3) Since the market has gone up by quite a bit since CNY, would you now be selling into the strength or buying on dips ?

4) If you are selling into strength, why are people still buying from you ? If you are buying on dips, why are people selling to you ?

[winston]

TOL:-

What could derail the rally ?

1) Swine Flu ?
2) IPOs ?
3) Rights ?
3) Placements ?

In Shanghai, the PE is now 27 and bank loans are no longer finding it's way into the share market...

[Cheng]

TOL:-

1) If you are a short-term trader, the trend could be your friend

2) If you are a longer term investor, then taking a contrarian view could be the way to invest

3) Since the market has gone up by quite a bit since CNY, would you now be selling into the strength or buying on dips ?

4) If you are selling into strength, why are people still buying from you ? If you are buying on dips, why are people selling to you ?

The market is a very interesting place, I learnt this from my cyber daddy.

The one selling thinks he is very smart and the one buying from him also thinks he is very smart. At the same time the other one sitting on the sideline also thinks he is smart.

The next thing I thought is, I would be a fool to listen to all 3 of them.