AAR & TOL 02 (Nov 08 - Jul 09)

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Most people knows that the economy will be bad for a few years.
2) Most people knows that companys' earnings will be bad for a few years

Therefore:-
1) Most people who wants to sell, would have sold already. And for those who are not selling, they have already being converted to "long term" investors alsready
2) Most people who wants to short, would have shorted already

So who else would be selling now ? And there's alot of cash on the sidelines....

When market drop, must take the other side of the argument mah

Wait till market goes up, then I think about why it should drop

[kennynah]

eventually, when it "appears" to many that it is a selling market, it will start attracting the last batch of retailer shortists...and that when they will get squeezed.... this is a game that is repeated for decades...

[winston]

The Asians are already anticipating a rally on the Dow tonight. Dow Futures up 70.

HK has turned positive eventhough SSE was down 4.75%

[iam802]

hahaha.. roller coaster ride.

Very nice.

Singapore no roller coaster. That's why STI is mostly flat.

[winston]

It's actually a one day reversal. It was lower, on higher volume and then rebounded.

If a 300 Points drop on the Dow as well as a potential collapse of European banks, cannot push the market down, then it may have reach some very strong support.

I think a lot of short-sellers were covering today.

Sold all my puts. Too dangerous to hang around..

[kennynah]

at about 430am onwards...SPX spiked 10+points in less than 5 mins...this one sure due to short covering ....

[winston]

TOL:-

What will be the market direction ?

1) The naysayers says that this will be a long slowdown, stretching up to 3 to 4 years. They expect further pain so would not be trying to catch the falling knives now. Included in this group of people, are those who did not managed to see the severity of the drop, so they are now compensating by calling for the end of the world..

2) The ever optimists says that the market has already priced in a severe Depression. Therefore, the market should bounce when people realize that this is just a normal Recession. Included in this group, are people who are trying to sell you a Mutual Fund or trying to do some Financial Planning for you ie. direct you to buy some Mutual Funds or Unit Linked Insurance Policies later..

My position remains the same:-
1) I think this will be a trading market. Safer to short when there's a bit of euphoria rather than to buy on the deep..
2) I will continue to focus on businesses which can withstand a slowdown for a few years

[kennynah]

wellll....futures pointing to a possible higher opening...

and so, i guess, you would be ready to enter bearish positions soon

[winston]

wellll....futures pointing to a possible higher opening...

and so, i guess, you would be ready to enter bearish positions soon

US Market is now following Asia. US has not decoupled from Asia yet

I think the US Futures is reacting to the Citigroup news ( just like the Asians ) but I think that it's abit illogical..

I may open up some bearish positions on the HSI when I see the SSE tank. The catalyst could be the upcoming earnings season starting in a week... I expect the banks to be announcing some not so pretty numbers..

So for this week, I will take a trading break

[kennynah]

macam Citi is the first to be "nationalized"...hahahaha....WTF !!!