Korea ( South & North ) 01 (May 08 - Nov 10)

[winston]

Worst yet to come for SKorea economy: Lee

The worst is yet to come for South Korea's economy, President Lee Myung-Bak said Thursday, calling for thorough pre-emptive measures to avoid joining other countries in recession. "Doubts about unstable economic conditions will continue to spread, so we must not dwell on numbers but set up thorough measures in advance to counter worse conditions to come," he was quoted as telling a special economic committee.

Last week the central bank reported that the export-dependent economy is in its worst shape since the East Asian financial crisis a decade ago, amid the global downturn. Asia's fourth-largest economy shrank 5.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in October-December, the worst showing since the first quarter of 1998. Last month the economy lost 12,000 jobs, the first such contraction in more than five years. Industrial output fell in November by 14.1 percent year-on-year, its biggest-ever decline.

Several analysts predict a recession this year. The state-financed Korea Development Institute warned during Thursday's meeting of a sharper-than-expected slowdown, a presidential spokesman said. The institute last week reduced its 2009 growth forecast to 0.7 percent from its previous 3.3 percent. Lee urged public firms and financial institutes to play a leading role in job-sharing, his spokesman told reporters. He has called for wage cuts in the public sector to create more jobs.

In a speech later to foreign businesspeople, Lee stressed the gravity of the world crisis but said it would provide an opportunity to South Korea. "I am confident that Korea will be able to seize this historic opportunity and usher in the momentum for the leap forward," he said. Lee said South Korea would provide various incentives such as cash grants and tax cuts to foreign investors and improve the business environment through further deregulation.

"Korea will become one of the most open economies in Northeast Asia," he said, adding foreign investment would help it overcome the crisis. The president also promised to improve the country's sometimes fractious labour relations. "This crisis will be an opportunity for us to usher in a fundamentally different relationship between management and labour and change the structure of the labour market," he said.

[winston]

On Wednesday morning, I saw that Korea was up 6% but the Lyxor Korea Fund was up only 2%, from 2.19 to 2.24. I hesitated. Thereafter, Lyxor Korea Fund jumped to 2.28 and it was 2.32 yesterday.

AAR:-
1) Why did I hesitate ? Is it because that I dont know Korea that well ?
2) Or was I concerned about their exports? However, I'm not a long term investor so I could have easily made 4% before getting out. Nothing has changed in that two days.
3) Or was it "kiasu" where I always want to buy at the bottom ?
4) Or was it because that I have made some very wrong bets in the past and am now afraid to bet eventhough it was quite a sure thing ?

BTW, Korea was so strong yesterday because Qimonda filed for bankrupcy and the thinking was that the Korean players would have one less strong competitor. Also, the analysts were saying that Dram prices have bottomed out..

So maybe that was why I hesitated yesterday..... because I donk know Korea that well and I know nuts abot Dram prices. Both were not within my core knowledge ..

[millionairemind]

January 30, 2009, 1.07 pm (Singapore time)

S Korea Dec factory output falls 9.6%

SEOUL - South Korea's industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 9.6 per cent in December from November, slipping for a sixth consecutive month, data showed on Friday, amid a looming risk of the nation's first recession in a decade.

From a year earlier, the industrial output index - which measures manufacturing, mining and electricity output - fell 18.6 per cent, data from the National Statistical Office showed. -- REUTERS

[winston]

Yawn Yawn... the world dont seemed to care. Fire a few rockets ( not those useless ones used by the Palestinians ) and the world will notice..

==============================================

North says two Koreas on brink of war

North Korea warned that the downward spiral of relations with the South has pushed the peninsula to the brink of war, two days after it said it was scrapping all pacts with its rich capitalist neighbor.

Analysts say the rhetorical volleys are aimed at changing the hardline policies of the South's president and are meant to grab the attention of new US President Barack Obama.

''The policy of confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea) pursued by the (South Korean) group is ... the very source of military conflicts and war between the North and the South,'' a commentary in the communist party newspaper said.

REUTERS

[winston]

South Korea Jan exports fall record 32.8 pct yr/yr

Oil rises near $42 on strike threats

SEOUL, Feb 2 (Reuters) - South Korean exports in January dropped more than expected by a record 32.8 percent from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, adding to economic gloom in the face of a deepening global recession.

The median forecast from a Reuters poll of 11 economists was for South Korean exports in January to fall 28.1 percent from a year earlier. The Ministry of Knowledge Economy also said imports in January lost 32.1 percent over a year earlier, slightly better than a 33.5 percent fall forecast in the Reuters poll.

[winston]

Massive job losses knock Korean recovery hopes

South Korea lost the most jobs in a decade in March, dampening hopes for a turnaround any time soon in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

South Korea shed 195,000 jobs last month from a year earlier - the most since March 1999 - as the country's export-dependent manufacturing companies laid off workers to survive the worst global downturn in decades.

Analysts said the numbers were unlikely to spur the central bank to cut interest rates again after a two-month pause but served as a reminder that South Korea was not out of the woods yet.

The unemployment rate in March rose to a seasonally adjusted 3.7 percent. That is the highest since October 2005. And a record 39.4 percent of those aged 15 or older remain outside of the labor market, data from the National Statistical Office shows.

Still, analysts said the government's aggressive fiscal spending since the onset of the global financial and economic crisis late last year helped keep the labor market from crashing.

The government has pledged US$50 billion (HK$390 billion) in stimulus spending since last year to save jobs and shield the economy from the worst of the fallout from thedownturn. That sum mounts to nearly 7 percent of annual gross domestic product.

Analysts also pointed out that South Korea's employment situation remains far better than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

REUTERS

[winston]

SKorea avoids recession with 0.1% economic growth in Q1

SEOUL: South Korea has avoided recession by recording positive economic growth in the first quarter after a sharp fall in exports moderated, the central bank said Friday.

Unprecedented interest-rate cuts and government stimulus spending also helped the export-dependent nation record 0.1 per cent growth in January-March compared to the previous quarter.

The economy had shrunk 5.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in October-December 2008, its biggest drop in a decade. A recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

Despite the positive news, Asia's fourth-largest economy still shrank 4.3 per cent in the first quarter year-on-year after contracting 3.4 per cent year-on year in the final quarter of 2008.

"Private spending and construction investment swung to gains and a decline in exports slowed down in the first quarter," the Bank of Korea said in a statement.

Exports fell 3.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months ended March 31 after declining 12.6 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Private spending grew 0.4 per cent compared with a 4.6 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

Facility investment shed 9.6 per cent, after falling 14.2 per cent three months earlier. Construction investment rose 5.3 per cent compared with a three per cent decline in the final quarter of last year.

The government last month unveiled a 28.9-trillion-won (US$21.3-billion) extra budget to stimulate the economy, complementing extra spending announced earlier.

The central bank has cut its base rate by 325 basis points since October to a record low two per cent.

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun had said Thursday there were "some positive signs" in South Korea's economy, such as recent trade surpluses, the successful issuance of sovereign bonds overseas and positive industrial production data.

But he said uncertainty remains, underlined last month when the country recorded the highest number of job losses for a decade.

South Korea was last in recession in 1998 during the East Asian financial crisis.

The central bank predicts the economy will shrink 2.4 per cent this year, the worst performance since the crisis, with growth of 3.5 per cent next year.

The International Monetary Fund Wednesday maintained its previous forecast that South Korea's economy would shrink four per cent this year.

It predicted modest growth of 1.5 per cent next year, sharply lower than its 4.2 per cent growth figure predicted three months earlier.

- AFP/yb

[mocca_com]

S Korea to sell state bonds worth $4.5 bln


www.chinaview.cn 2009-04-29 16:40:13 Print

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis


SEOUL, April 29 (Xinhua) -- The South Korean government plans to sell state bonds worth 6.06 trillion won (4.52 billion U.S. dollars) in May, the finance ministry said Wednesday.

The ministry said it will sell three-year Treasuries worth 1.7 trillion won (1.27 billion U.S. dollars), five-year Treasuries worth 2.36 trillion won (1.76 billion U.S. dollars), and 10-year Treasuries worth 1.3 trillion won (970 million U.S. dollars) next month.

The ministry also plans on issuing 700 billion won (520 million U.S. dollars) worth of 20-year state bonds.

[winston]

Lyxor Korea down 3% today.

Watching & watching .. North Korea tested some missiles again. No big deal. It would only be a big deal if one of these missiles accidentally hit someone. Or those Nuclear Test trigger a 7.8 earthquake..

Korea is an export driven country so I probably should be patient, as I'm not sure who's lining up, to buy their LG Cookie Handphone or Samsung TV or Kia Motor Automobile or Posco Steel or who's frequenting Lotte Hotel & Dept Store ...

[winston]

We Have A Chinese Problem, Not A North Korean One
Gordon G. Chang, 05.25.09, 04:34 PM EDT

If it weren't for Beijing, Pyongyang would be impotent.

Hours after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea detonated its second atomic device, Beijing condemned the test. "The DPRK conducted another nuclear test in disregard of the common opposition of the international community," a Foreign Ministry statement, issued May 25, noted. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this act."

Is that so? Today, China supplies about 90% of North Korea's oil, 80% of its consumer goods and 45% of its food. Beijing is Pyongyang's only formal military ally and its primary backer in the United Nations Security Council and other diplomatic forums. If it weren't for the Chinese, there would be no North Korean missile program, no North Korean nuclear program and no North Korea.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/25/kim-jo ... =dailycrux