AUD 01 (May 08 - Feb 12)

[HengHeng]

anyway singapore same mah .. less than 500 still need to pay .. so what is the difference.. i sometimes dun even know what rates we are at..

[Blackjack]

Sell Aussie Dollar as China's Economy Weakens, RBC Capital Says

By Garfield Reynolds

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the Australian dollar against the greenback as the currency is likely to extend this year's record declines because a weaker Chinese economy will sap demand for raw materials, RBC Capital Markets said.

The Aussie, as the currency is also known, may weaken below 60 U.S. cents, adding to its plunge from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16, RBC analysts said in a report. The Australian dollar touched a five-year low of 60.09 U.S. cents today and traded at 60.19 cents as of 9:17 a.m. in Sydney.

``The major driver of the Australian dollar's 31.3 percent decline over the past three months has been the collapse in resource commodity prices,'' Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney, wrote in the report.

Australia's currency is the worst-performer of the world's 16 most-active currencies against the dollar and yen in the past month as investors have dumped equities amid widespread concern that the global economy will fall into recession. Australia's 17-year economic boom has been fueled by raw materials sales, which account for 70 percent of the country's exports.

RBC recommends selling the Australian dollar when it trades at less than 63.36 cents, targeting a decline to 55 U.S. cents. They should exit the bet if the currency strengthens to 67.9 U.S. cents, RBC said.

China's economic growth may slow to 8 percent in the fourth quarter, after growing by a weaker-than expected 9 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, ``exerting further downward pressure on commodities prices,'' Trinh wrote.

Symmetrical Triangle

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials tumbled 28 percent this year as investors have fled commodities on concern a looming global recession may diminish demand for crude oil and for industrial metals such as copper, nickel and aluminum.

Financial turmoil and declining commodity prices have pushed down the Aussie to create what may be a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a decline to at least 57.07 cents is likely, RBC Capital said, citing technical analysis.

Goldman Sachs Inc. analysts said yesterday in a note that the Australian dollar's decline to 63.3 U.S. cents may indicate a drop to 47.75 cents in the longer term, also citing technical analysis.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aybu4WkiW1ac&refer=australia

[Blackjack]

Stevens Says Australia May Talk Itself Into Recession (Update1)

By Jacob Greber

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Australia risks talking itself into a recession even though the central bank has scope to cut interest rates and federal and state governments have the capacity to boost spending by borrowing, bank Governor Glenn Stevens said.

``Given the underlying strengths of the economy, about the biggest mistake we could make would be to talk ourselves into unnecessary economic weakness,'' the Reserve Bank's Stevens said today in a speech in Melbourne.

The governors' comments contrasted with a Westpac Banking Corp. report published today that showed the nation may slip into a recession. Australia will ``come through the present period'' if businesses remain focused on long-term opportunities, banks keep lending and governments boost ``worthwhile public investment,'' he said.

Stevens is giving ``hints that despite obviously gloomy news, things are not as bad as implied in some commentaries,'' said Stephen Koukoulas, London-based head of global foreign exchange and fixed income strategy for TD Securities. ``Current cutting expectations may be too extreme.''

Traders have increased bets the RBA will lower rates by 1 percentage point at its next meeting on Dec. 2, according to a Credit Suisse index based on overnight swaps trading. There was a 94 percent chance of such a reduction late today, up from 92 percent late yesterday.

``Yes, the situation is serious, but the long-run prospects for the Australian economy have not deteriorated to the extent that might be suggested by some of the gloomy talk that is around,'' Stevens told a function organized by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.

Aggressive Easing

The bank, which has cut borrowing costs since early September by two percentage points to 5.25 percent in the most aggressive round of easing since a recession in 1991, has ``ample scope to do what is needed in the current situation,'' he added.

The Australian dollar rose to 64.67 U.S. cents at 9:37 p.m. in Sydney from 64.54 before Stevens' speech was released.

Westpac's leading economic index fell 1 percent in September to 258.4 points and the annualized growth rate of the gauge slowed to 1.1 percent from 2.5 percent in August, the bank said today. Business confidence plunged last month to a record low, and this month consumers were pessimistic for a 10th straight month, reports showed last week.

``We ought to go forward with some quiet confidence in our own abilities and in the opportunities that are on offer,'' Stevens said.

He also signaled the Reserve Bank of Australia would be comfortable if state and federal governments boosted public spending, ``even if that involves some prudent borrowing.'' The federal budget has been in a surplus since 2002.

Financial Turmoil

Measures taken by policy makers and governments around the world to address recent financial turmoil, including boosting liquidity, capital and confidence in markets, are ``bearing some fruit,'' the governor said.

``These measures cannot avert a significant slowing in the global economy -- it is fairly clear that a recession in the G7 is under way,'' Stevens said. ``But the measures averted, in my judgment, potential systemic collapses that would have had massive repercussions throughout the world.''

Still, ``policy makers and regulators both here and abroad will need to stand ready to act promptly to provide any necessary support for the financial system and sustainable economic activity.''

Stevens said he will seek to strike a balance between bringing inflation back to its target range of 2 percent to 3 percent, ``albeit slowly,'' while avoiding ``as far as possible an unnecessary weakening in demand.''

Target Rate

The Reserve Bank board cut the overnight cash rate target by three quarters of a percentage point on Nov. 4, adding to a one- percentage-point reduction in October and a quarter-point adjustment in September.

The central bank reduced its 2008 economic growth forecast last week to 1.5 percent from 2 percent and said it had been forced to make ``unusually large'' cuts in the benchmark rate in October and November because renewed global turmoil raised the risk growth will stall.

``With recent international economic financial events, the economy will probably now experience a more significant slowing than was otherwise going to occur,'' Stevens said.

While China, ``one of the countries of most importance to Australia,'' is weakening at present, it will be strengthening in a year from now, he said. China is Australia's biggest trade partner.

Global Regulation

Stevens also said a drive to review global regulation and supervision following the surge in global financial turmoil, triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, should be approached ``with realism.''

``The cycle of greed and fear cannot be regulated away,'' he said. ``To assume that unrealistic optimism will not again, at some point, overwhelm the more sober instincts of investors, bankers, commentators and others would be a triumph of hope over experience.''

Still, people ``could have a more conservative attitude to debt build-up; and we could exhibit a little more skepticism about the trade-off between risks and rewards in rapid financial innovation,'' the governor said.

[winston]

RBA bought record A$3.15b

The Reserve Bank of Australia bought A$3.15 billion (HK$15.82 billion) of its own currency in October, the biggest net purchase on record, as the Australian dollar posted a record monthly drop and touched the lowest since 2003.

The RBA, which had confirmed it intervened in the market in October and November to provide liquidity, announced the net amount bought in its monthly bulletin.

The interventions weren't ``designed to defend any particular level,'' the RBA said this week. The bank hasn't been a net buyer of the Australian dollar in the market since 2001, according to RBA data.

BLOOMBERG

[winston]

Sell Australian Dollar on Commodities, Rate Outlook, ANZ Says By Ron Harui

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell Australia’s dollar as prices of commodities that the nation exports may fall and the central bank is likely to lower interest rates, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

The currency’s two-week rally makes an “ideal time” for Australian dollar sellers to put some hedges in place, analysts led by Amy Auster, Melbourne-based head of foreign exchange and international economics research at ANZ, wrote in a research note yesterday.

“ANZ projects further falls in commodity prices,” Auster and Amber Rabinov, an economist, wrote in the note. “The Australian dollar’s yield advantage should decline as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to cut interest rates.”

The Australian dollar traded at 71.05 U.S. cents at 9:55 a.m. in Sydney from 70.14 cents late in Asia yesterday, when it reached 72.69 cents, the highest level since Oct. 8. The currency has rallied 4 percent since a one-week low of 67.62 cents on Dec. 24.

Australia’s fourth-largest bank predicts the local dollar will fall to 63 cents by the end of March and will weaken further to 54 cents by year-end, according to the note. The median forecasts of 39 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News are for 62 cents and 66 cents, respectively.

The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of 19 raw materials fell for a second day, declining 1.2 percent yesterday. The Bloomberg UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 components lost 1.8 percent.

Commodities including coal, iron ore, gold and oil account for 60 percent of Australia’s export revenue.

RBA Rate Bets

The benchmark interest rate in Australia is 4.25 percent, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., making the South Pacific nation an attractive destination for international investors seeking higher returns.

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the benchmark rate last year by three percentage points to a match a record low of 4.25 percent in the most aggressive monetary policy easing since a recession in 1991. The RBA started setting an interest-rate target in 1990.

Traders are betting the RBA will lower rates an additional 1.37 percentage points over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on interest-rate swaps.

[winston]

On CNBC now:-

Ray Barros expects AUD to drop to 0.6 vs US Dollar. Thereafter, about 0.80 to 0.85 by end of the year.

[winston]

On CNBC:-

Ray barros expects AUD to drop to 75.

Was he accurate the last ime or not ? ( from the above )

[winston]

Ray Barros on Bloomberg expects the AUD to go up due to the Chinese story...

[persistentone]

Ray Barros on Bloomberg expects the AUD to go up due to the Chinese story...

He and everyone else did a remarkable job of calling the bottom for the AUD when they asked us to sell in January. Now I am wondering if they are not calling a short term top by telling us to buy at the end of a long run up.

If the Chinese are willing to inflate their economy and pump money endlessly, the commodity boom will continue. If the Chinese move to a neutral stance and cut back the commodity purchases, I think the AUD comes back to support near $70 AUD. I like the Australian market (for lots of reasons) and I would like to buy at $70.

[winston]

As long as the world continues to grow, it would be good for Commodities Currency like the AUD.

Sat on it for 9 years already. Time really flies ...