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by winston » Mon Dec 29, 2025 9:12 am
Each bubble has its own flavor, they all tend to share similar fingerprints…
1. Speculation over substance
2. Easy money and leverage
3. New financial products
4. Retail crowding in
5. Headline-grabbing deals
by winston » Wed Jan 14, 2026 9:22 pm
Market Breadth Is Expanding: Stocks rose throughout 2025. And the advance/decline line for the whole NYSE is still hitting all-time highs right alongside the overall market.
No Concentration Risk: The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is hitting highs as well
Right now, about 60% of stocks are in an uptrend. That’s a healthy number. It’s not low enough to signal a divergence. And it’s not high enough to signal an overheated market.
by winston » Wed Apr 22, 2026 9:18 pm
Clearly, folks are worried today. With high prices at the pump, that makes sense… But don’t expect stocks to crash. Instead, this is an opportunity.
Stocks have already recovered their losses. We’re back to new highs. And history shows this is just the start. So despite the fears, you want to own stocks now.
by winston » Wed Apr 29, 2026 9:45 pm
You might not think of consecutive winning days as a signal to buy. But this is just another way to see that the trend is in our favor.
And we know that when stocks are rising, they tend to keep rising.
That’s where we are right now. The markets have shrugged off the problems in the Middle East. And according to history, we can expect big gains in the months ahead.
So don’t give up. And don’t let your fears guide you. Instead, stick with the data… and stay long.
by winston » Tue May 05, 2026 7:59 am
Global equity funds drew inflows for a sixth straight week through April 29, as optimism over strong first-quarter earnings outweighed investor concerns about the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices.
Global equity funds attracted a net US$18.91 billion (HK$147.5 billion) during the week, following a hefty US$48.67 billion of net inflows the previous week.
Global bond funds were popular for a fourth successive week, drawing a net US$14.19 billion.
Government bond funds attracted a net US$3.07 billion, the largest inflow in three weeks, while high-yield bond funds took in a net US$2.44 billion.
Money market funds posted a third straight week of outflows, with investors withdrawing a net US$36.5 billion.
by winston » Mon May 18, 2026 7:24 am
Bullish investors may look to add exposure on pullbacks towards the 49,400 to 48,500 region, where the short- and medium-term moving averages begin to converge.
Meanwhile, a weekly close above 50,500 could encourage larger trend-following flows back into the market.
Conversely, a decisive move back below 50,000 over the coming sessions would likely force a rapid reassessment of the current bullish outlook.
by winston » Mon May 18, 2026 3:19 pm
by winston » Wed Jun 03, 2026 8:57 am
A boom is more likely to be followed by a further boom than by a bust.
Sectors that went on to crash shared a fingerprint: surging trading volume, a rush of companies issuing new shares, and price gains accelerating sharply in the final months. Taken together, those signals carried predictive power.
If the top cannot be reliably timed, the winning behaviour is the unglamorous one: Stay invested, diversify so that no single narrative can sink you, rebalance with discipline rather than conviction, and treat your own certainty as the most expensive position in the portfolio.
by winston » Fri Jun 05, 2026 9:48 pm
The month of June has not been very good to investors over the last 25 years. T
The good news is that stocks typically enjoy a stronger seasonal rebound in July.
The month of June tends to show a pattern of good initial gains in the first week, followed by lackluster returns in weeks 2 and 3, followed by a larger drop in week 3.
This is often the week right after monthly options expiration in June (6/18 this year), which is also a triple-witching event.
So, any market weakness this month could show up between next week, and the week ending June 26.
by winston » Wed Jun 10, 2026 4:50 pm
The benchmark S&P 500 Index was "statistically expensive on 17 of 20 metrics, and trades rich versus its tech bubble metrics on eight.
Measures include consumer confidence data, growth expectations, M&A scores and credit stress as well as tightening conditions indicators, like the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, known as the SLOOS.
The latter, released in May, showed consumer demand continued to soften. Additionally, stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios were leading those with low multiples by a wide margin, a "sign of excessive speculation".
"Cash flow conversion has flat-lined, investment grade and equity supply has increased, buybacks as a percent of market cap have slowed and capex as a percent of operating cash flow for hyperscalers is forecast to reach nearly 100% by year-end, up from 40% in 2023".
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