Warning Signs 04 (Jul 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Wall Street hit by UK mortgage lender collapse, raising fears of more credit ‘cockroaches’

London-based Market Financial Solution specialised in complex property-backed loans

The collapse of MFS hammered the shares of Barclays and Jefferies, and accelerated a broader selloff in financial firms and alternative asset managers on Friday, as the market grappled with the prospect of a widening credit contagion, amid concerns about lending standards in the industry.

Source: Reuters

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ockroaches

[behappyalways]

In Simulated War Games, Top AI Models Recommended Using Nukes 95% Of The Time
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/simulated- ... es-95-time

[winston]

The world economy is in the shadow of war and the warning signs are flashing

Global growth is now projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027

by Leon Hadar

Countries in the conflict region face particularly sharp revisions. Iran, for instance, had its growth forecast cut by 7.2 percentage points, resulting in an expected contraction of 6.1 per cent.

Saudi Arabia’s growth outlook was slashed from 4.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

These are countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America that import energy and food, carry high levels of debt, and have limited fiscal cushioning to absorb shocks. For their populations, rising commodity prices do not mean higher petrol bills. They mean choosing between meals.

When fear takes hold, these entities can pull money out of emerging markets rapidly, triggering a vicious cycle of currency crashes, higher borrowing costs and financial instability.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... e-flashing

[behappyalways]

A review of the winners and losers in the Middle East conflicts: Russia profits handsomely from oil dollars.

盤點中東戰火贏家輸家 俄國趁機大賺油元【短篇】#TVBS文茜的世界周報-歐洲版 20260418

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9bok-gowa ... 8Co7VqN5tD

[behappyalways]

Whirlpool says Iran war causing ‘recession-level industry decline.’ The shares are down 12%
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/whirlpo ... rcent.html

[behappyalways]

Stock market bubbles throughout history…

AI stocks now ~40% of the market.
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2052755216164900903

[winston]

The Stock Market Is Flashing a Warning Signal It Has Only Shown Twice Before. Here's What Comes Next.

by Katie Brockman

Historically, the average S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio sits at around 17. Throughout 2026, however, it's been hovering near 40.

In the late 1920s, it reached the mid-30s before the U.S. plunged into the Great Depression. Then, amid the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, it reached an all-time high of 44.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 00637.html

[behappyalways]

Maersk CEO Warns Iran War Is A "New Wake-Up Call" For Global Trade
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... obal-trade

[behappyalways]

Bonds Are Screaming "Something's Wrong"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds ... ings-wrong

[winston]

The pain started long before US$150 oil

As flows through Hormuz remain disrupted, weakening currencies and soaring costs are already rippling through Asia

by Anita Gabriel

The US Energy Information Administration said that most pre-conflict production and trade patterns may not resume until late 2026 or early 2027.

About 80 per cent of oil and oil products moving through Hormuz in 2025 were bound for Asia.

In other words, higher oil prices quickly become a currency, inflation and corporate-cost headache.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... -us150-oil